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Problem owner: Bernard de Groot, CIO Sanoma Learning & Literature<br>
Problem owner: [http://www.linkedin.com/ppl/webprofile?vmi=&id=1006520&pvs=pp&authToken=Q3QD&authType=name&locale=en_US&trk=ppro_viewmore&lnk=vw_pprofile Bernard de Groot], CIO [http://www.sanoma-uitgevers.nl/nl-web-Home.php Sanoma] Learning & Literature <br>
Twitter http://twitter.com/batdegroot <br>
Bernard is also on [[http://twitter.com/batdegroot Twitter]] <br>
http://www.linkedin.com/ppl/webprofile?vmi=&id=1006520&pvs=pp&authToken=Q3QD&authType=name&locale=en_US&trk=ppro_viewmore&lnk=vw_pprofile<br>
<br>


----
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[[Image: future-education.jpg|thumb|300px]]


==Team Members==


<h2>Team Members</h2>
[http://nl.linkedin.com/pub/chun-seok-chang/19/479/115 Chun Seok Chang] <br>  
Chun Seok Chang <br>  
[http://nl.linkedin.com/pub/spyridoula-drakopoulou/19/254/7b2 Spyridoula Drakopoulou] <br>
Spyridoula Drakopoulou <br>
[http://nl.linkedin.com/pub/margo-martinez/1/aa0/7a3 Margo Martinez] <br>
Margo Martinez <br>
[http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/ines-ranguelova/6/929/a87 Ines Ranguelova] <br>
Ines Ranguelova <br>
[http://nl.linkedin.com/in/neelssteyn Neels Steyn] <br>
Neels Steyn <br>




<h2>Focal Issue </h2>
==Introduction==


What will be the future of tablets/technology in the classroom of 2025?
[[Image: complexity.jpg|thumb|600px]]


In this scenario set we explore the future of tablet technology in education.  Neither the desktop PC/laptop, nor the internet have thus far managed to revolutionize the education system, in spite of the enormous potential these technologies hold for education.  The excitement around tablet computers appears to be different though.  We explore whether the penetration of tablets in the educational system will differ from that achieved by previous computing technologies.  We also explore what form or manner this could possibly hold. In addition we broadened our research to explore whether technology, in general, will revolutionize the whole learning process. Our research focuses mainly on the EU region and refers both to primary and secondary education.


<h2> Interview Questions </h2>
==Focal Issue==




'''Personal Role and Project Expectations''' <br>
What is the future of tablet technology in education in 2025?
1) What is your role as a Chief Innovation Officer in the company? <br>
2) What are your expectations from this project? How would you like to benefit from the project (for Sanoma/on a personal level)? <br>
3) How broadly do you define education? What are your personal interests in tablets. <br> 
4) How do you think learning will be like in the future? Do you see any other innovation having an impact on the future of learning and education? <br>
5) Reuse of content, what is the level of collaboration between the divisions of the company?<br> 
6) Which is the geographical focus that interests you? <br>


==Scenario Tree==


'''Sanoma's Business Model''' <br>
[[File:ScenarioTree.jpg|600px]]
1) What is the current business model for Sanoma Learning and Literature? <br>
2) Describe your main products (textbooks vs other learning materials) <br>
3) Who are your customers and the market you are addressing? Revenue sources? <br>
4) Who are your main competitors? <br>
5) Suppliers (i.e. Who provides content?) <br>


==Short Scenario Description==


'''Sanoma's Industry''' <br>
'''School as Usual''' <br>
1) Is the industry driven by customers' demands and needs or is the company defining the future innovations (Apple)? <br>
In the School as Usual scenario we find that technology has yet again failed to enter the school system. Teachers resist to fully integrate tablets in the classroom while children�s extracurricular activates only involve technological gadgets and virtual worlds. This technological gap makes kids disengaged and distracted in school.
2) Do you view companies like Google and Apple's interest in media as a threat? <br>
3) How do you see the market evolving in the short, medium and long term? What role do you see Sanoma playing in this market? <br>


'''Another brick in the wall''' <br>
In this scenario,technology has fundamentally changed the way children learn. Moreover, the educational system is highly regulated and monitored by the EU governments. All EU countries have to abide to the uniform standards and rigorous testing imposed by the governments. Students are competing against each other in terms of performance as "student rankings" are published even at a daily basis. Students become highly competitive and aggressive due to the pressure to perform substantially better than their peers. <br>


'''Obstacles to Adoption of Tablets for Education''' <br>
'''Tailored Learning, Tailored Life''' <br>
1) Why tablets? Laptops and PCs were very slow in penetrating schools. Do you view tablets as a different case? <br>
In the Tailored Learning, Tailored Life scenario we find that technology has changed significantly the way education is delivered and the way that children learn. Governments no longer control the schooling or education system, but children do not lead the learning process themselves. Their learning is highly individualised and tailored to their specific talents, circumstances and interests. <br>
2) Laptops and PCs revolutionized the learning experience. Do you see tablets as an extension of this trend? <br>
3) What are the practical obstacles to adoption of Tablets in Education <br>
4) Do you see the tablets taking off? Under which conditions and when? <br>
5) (optional) Is there a security protocol? How constraining is it? <br>


'''Teacher, leave them kids alone''' <br>
In this world, technology has significantly changed the way that children learn. Governments are no longer the primary drivers of the education system, and students themselves lead the learning process. Learning content and curricula is driven largely by the student, with input and guidance from mentors and other facilitators. Kids� main source of learning � not only WHAT they learn but HOW they learn it shifts to themselves.


<h2>Research Questions</h2>
==Scenario Stories==
 
[[Image: tablet_evolution.jpg|thumb|Tablet Evolution|400px]]
 
[[School as Usual]] <br>
[[Another brick in the wall]] <br>
[[Tailored Learning, Tailored Life]] <br>
[[Teacher, Leave Them Kids Alone]] <br>
 
==Interview Questions==
 
[[Interview Questions]] explored with Bernard de Groot during an interview on 17 August 2010
 
==Research Questions==


'''Educational Systems around the world''' <br>
'''Educational Systems around the world''' <br>
Line 64: Line 68:
[[Is there any flexibility in the way the curriculum is structured and taught (alternative teaching methods)? ]]<br>
[[Is there any flexibility in the way the curriculum is structured and taught (alternative teaching methods)? ]]<br>
[[International initiatives for improvement of education]]<br>
[[International initiatives for improvement of education]]<br>




'''Tablets/Technology''' <br>
'''Tablets/Technology''' <br>
Jun <br>
[[- What are the different types of tablets on the market, price and volume?]] <br>
- What are the different types of tablets on the market, price and volume? <br>
[[- What are the various features/functions currently found on tablets available in the market?]] <br>
- What are the various features/functions currently found on tablets available in the market? <br>
[[- How long does it take for a technological innovation to increase its penetration rate?]] <br>
- How long does it take for a technological innovation to increase its penetration rate? <br>
[[- May the success of Apple affect the future of tablets and their popularity?]]<br>
- May the success of Apple affect the future of tablets and their popularity?
[[- PCs and laptops at schools. How have the penetration rates evolved through time?]] <br>
[[- What are the benefits from using tablets, as opposed to laptops/PC's?]] <br>
[[- Schools that currently make use of tablet computing and for which subjects/classes/purposes?]] <br>
[[- Which is the receptivity of teachers and students concerning technology innovations and involvement of technology in the class?]] <br>
[[- Obstacles in adopting tablets]] <br>


Margo <br>
- PCs and laptops at schools. How have the penetration rates evolved through time? <br>
- What are the benefits from using tablets, as opposed to laptops/PC's? <br>
- Schools that currently make use of tablet computing and for which subjects/classes/purposes? <br>
- Which is the receptivity of teachers and students concerning technology innovations and involvement of technology in the class? <br>
- Obstacles in adopting tablets <br>


'''Publishing Companies''' <br>
'''Publishing Companies''' <br>
Which are the main publishing companies worldwide? <br>
[[Which are the main publishing companies worldwide?]] <br>
[[How much power do these companies exercise compared to the other parties involved in the supply chain?]] <br>
[[What is the current status of e-books and e-learning?]] <br>
[[E-libraries]] <br>
[[Open-textbook]] <br>


http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=14107 <br>
The top 10 book publishers in the US are as follows of 2001 <br>
1. Mc-Graw Hill (18.32% market share)<br>
2. Random House (Owned by Bertelsmann (6.9% market share)<br>
3. Harcourt General  (owned by Reed Elsevier Group) (9.5% market share)<br>
4. Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck  (8.7% market share)<br>
5. Scholastic  (7.7% market share)<br>
6. Pearson  (24.8% market share)<br>
7. Houghton Mifflin  (owned by Vivendi Universal Publishing) (4%)<br>
8. HarperCollins  (owned by News Corp (3.8%market share)<br>
9. John Wiley  (2.4% market share)<br>
10.Simon & Schuster  (owned by Viacom) (2.6% market share)<br>
From these figures it can be surmised that the top 10 book publishers have 88.72% of the market.<br>


'''Corporate role in Education''' <br>
[[What is the involvement of corporations in the educational system currently?]] <br>
[[Are there any partnership/ sponsorship between schools/universities and companies?]] <br>


How much power do these companies exercise compared to the other parties involved in the supply chain? <br>


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Textbook<br>
==Systems Diagrams==
http://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/getArticle.cfm?id=1712<br>
http://www.ipg.uk.com/cgi-bin/scribe?showinfo=pp021<br>
According to the National Association of College Stores, the entire cost of the book is justified by expenses, with typically 11.7% of the price of a new book going to the author's royalties (or a committee of editors at the publishing house), 22.7% going to the store, and 64.6% going to the publisher.<br>


<gallery>
Image:System Diagram for Tabelt in Education 1.jpg|''System Diagram: Future of Tablets in Education ''
[[File:System Diagram for Tabelt in Education 1.jpg]]
</gallery>


What is the current status of e-books and e-learning? <br>
E-libraries <br>
Open-textbook <br>


==Scenario Timelines==


'''Corporate role in Education''' <br>
<gallery>
What is the involvement of corporations in the educational system currently? <br>
Image:Timeline_sau.jpg|''Timeline for School As Usual''
Are there any partnership/ sponsorship between schools/universities and companies? <br>
Image:Timeline_abitw.jpg|''Timeline for Another brick in the wall''
Image:Timeline_tltl.jpg|''Timeline for Tailored Learning, Tailored Life''
Image:Timeline_tltka.jpg|''Timeline for Teacher, leave them kids alone''
</gallery>
 
 
==Driving Forces==
 
1. [[Technological babysitting in Child Care]] (IR)
 
2. [[E-Books Usage]] (IR)
 
3. [[Decrease of Students' Engagement]] (SD)


4. [[Increasing Rate of Technological Change]] (NS)


5. [[Increasing Rate of Learning]] (NS)


<h2>Driving Forces</h2>
6. [[Increasing Online Collaboration]] (MM)
[[Technological babysitting in Child Care]]


[[E-Books Usage]]
7. [[Tailored and Alternative Learning Systems]] (MM)


[[Decrease of Students' Engagement]]
8. [[Performance Measurement via Technology]] (MM)


[[Childrens' increasing familiarization with technology]]
9. [[Telecommunication technology]] (CC)


[[School 24/7]]
10. [[Education cost]] (CC)


[[Increasing Rate of Technological Change]]
11. [[Impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on education spending]] (NS)


[[Increasing Rate of Learning]]
12. [[Global Warming Threats]] (IR)


[[Increasing Online Collaboration]]
13. [[ Decrease in competitiveness of EU]] (SD)


[[Performance Measurement via Technology]]
14. [[Increased number of teachers at retirement age]] (SD)


[[International Integration of Educational system (Assessment Criteria)]]
==Key Group Learnings==
* Group learning happens through language creation: By discussing and analysing the problem we created a terminology with a common understanding which allowed us create more surprising, plausible, deep and quality scenarios <br>
* To build a good scenarios we dug deep below the surface by interviewing/watching people who had something interesting to say and challenge our way of thinking. In addition within the team we had diverse ways of thinking which helped for high quality scenario creation  <br>
* Scenario thinking is offering a new way of thinking. In our group that was mainly facilitated through challenging each others' ideas and defying assumptions that we were not even aware of <br> 


[[Convergence in technology (all in one)]]
==Web-Resources==


[[Telecommunication technology]]
Complete list of [[web resources]].


[[Education cost]]
==References==


<h2>Reference</h2> <br>
Education=future picture retrieved [[http://www.google.nl/imgres?imgurl=http://www.immersivelabs.com/site/images/stories/education-future.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.multibaggerpennystocks.com/2010/04/education-sector-in-india-poised-for.html&usg=__uJcnp1UrzWqZHRTjlkNWKfjDFZc=&h=428&w=600&sz=29&hl=nl&start=0&sig2=KPlwb-pcdCToj4o0LM_ZSw&zoom=1&tbnid=DdS6jAAGNXODLM:&tbnh=155&tbnw=199&ei=6LyITIuSOovvObTZ4JUO&prev=/images%3Fq%3DEducation%253Dfuture%2Bpicture%26um%3D1%26hl%3Dnl%26sa%3DX%26biw%3D1280%26bih%3D640%26tbs%3Disch:1&um=1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=573&vpy=361&dur=144&hovh=190&hovw=266&tx=142&ty=184&oei=6LyITIuSOovvObTZ4JUO&esq=1&page=1&ndsp=16&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0 from]] <br>
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/978-92-9201-033-1/EN/978-92-9201-033-1-EN.PDF <br>
Education complexity picture retrieved [[http://www.google.nl/imgres?imgurl=http://iwanbenneyworth.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/education-cartoon.gif&imgrefurl=http://iwanbenneyworth.wordpress.com/2010/01/&usg=__0UubjuX6qGPFzS8c-7hhDagPXvc=&h=457&w=534&sz=17&hl=nl&start=758&sig2=TatBrRquHwSrGjKkG7jpYg&zoom=1&tbnid=f5CIxBim1Cg62M:&tbnh=153&tbnw=179&ei=9LSITNnmC4f_Ofiy7JYD&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dtablet%2Bin%2Beducation%26um%3D1%26hl%3Dnl%26sa%3DN%26biw%3D1280%26bih%3D640%26tbs%3Disch:11,24281&um=1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=530&vpy=305&dur=1650&hovh=208&hovw=243&tx=128&ty=131&oei=mrOITLytNYasOLKflM4H&esq=5&page=47&ndsp=17&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:758&biw=1280&bih=640 from]] <br>
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Education <br>
Tablet Evolution picture retrieved [[http://www.google.nl/imgres?imgurl=http://olliebray.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341eb53c53ef0133f09b5397970b-500wi&imgrefurl=http://elgg.norfolk.e2bn.org/_rss/individual.php%3Ffeed%3D34&usg=__LyE1JsZJlgf_bcf_53HxKFUAJ8I=&h=170&w=500&sz=174&hl=nl&start=0&sig2=sFLvidCVEas6mA-gvC1TVQ&zoom=1&tbnid=YuUiBmhuGS4woM:&tbnh=70&tbnw=206&ei=Kr2ITODnK47fOJO9hIcO&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dtablet%2Bevolution%26um%3D1%26hl%3Dnl%26sa%3DN%26biw%3D1280%26bih%3D640%26tbs%3Disch:1&um=1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=626&vpy=122&dur=1361&hovh=131&hovw=385&tx=200&ty=55&oei=Kr2ITODnK47fOJO9hIcO&esq=1&page=1&ndsp=17&ved=1t:429,r:3,s:0 from]] <br>
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Power_of_Information-anywhere,_everywhere <br>
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0017/001776/177609e.pdf <br>
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001865/186525E.pdf <br>
http://www.unesco.org/fileadmin/MULTIMEDIA/HQ/ED/GMR/pdf/gmr2010/gmr2010-annex-04-stat-tables.pdf <br>
http://rubble.heppell.net/places/media/drivers.pdf <br>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Development_Goals <br>
http://www.unesco.org/en/efa/efa-goals/ <br>
http://rubble.heppell.net/places/ <br>
http://www.visualeconomics.com/how-countries-spend-their-money/ <br>

Latest revision as of 23:06, 1 November 2021

Problem owner: Bernard de Groot, CIO Sanoma Learning & Literature
Bernard is also on [Twitter]

Future-education.jpg

Team Members

Chun Seok Chang
Spyridoula Drakopoulou
Margo Martinez
Ines Ranguelova
Neels Steyn


Introduction

Complexity.jpg

In this scenario set we explore the future of tablet technology in education. Neither the desktop PC/laptop, nor the internet have thus far managed to revolutionize the education system, in spite of the enormous potential these technologies hold for education. The excitement around tablet computers appears to be different though. We explore whether the penetration of tablets in the educational system will differ from that achieved by previous computing technologies. We also explore what form or manner this could possibly hold. In addition we broadened our research to explore whether technology, in general, will revolutionize the whole learning process. Our research focuses mainly on the EU region and refers both to primary and secondary education.

Focal Issue

What is the future of tablet technology in education in 2025?

Scenario Tree

ScenarioTree.jpg

Short Scenario Description

School as Usual
In the School as Usual scenario we find that technology has yet again failed to enter the school system. Teachers resist to fully integrate tablets in the classroom while children�s extracurricular activates only involve technological gadgets and virtual worlds. This technological gap makes kids disengaged and distracted in school.

Another brick in the wall
In this scenario,technology has fundamentally changed the way children learn. Moreover, the educational system is highly regulated and monitored by the EU governments. All EU countries have to abide to the uniform standards and rigorous testing imposed by the governments. Students are competing against each other in terms of performance as "student rankings" are published even at a daily basis. Students become highly competitive and aggressive due to the pressure to perform substantially better than their peers.

Tailored Learning, Tailored Life
In the Tailored Learning, Tailored Life scenario we find that technology has changed significantly the way education is delivered and the way that children learn. Governments no longer control the schooling or education system, but children do not lead the learning process themselves. Their learning is highly individualised and tailored to their specific talents, circumstances and interests.

Teacher, leave them kids alone
In this world, technology has significantly changed the way that children learn. Governments are no longer the primary drivers of the education system, and students themselves lead the learning process. Learning content and curricula is driven largely by the student, with input and guidance from mentors and other facilitators. Kids� main source of learning � not only WHAT they learn but HOW they learn it shifts to themselves.

Scenario Stories

Tablet Evolution

School as Usual
Another brick in the wall
Tailored Learning, Tailored Life
Teacher, Leave Them Kids Alone

Interview Questions

Interview Questions explored with Bernard de Groot during an interview on 17 August 2010

Research Questions

Educational Systems around the world
Which are the main transformations that the educational system has gone through so far?
What is the total government spending for education? How much does it vary in the developing and developed world?
Which is the cost structure of schools?
What are the current technological trends in the educational system?
Demographic trends
What is the level of autonomy granted to schools/ What is the role of local ministries of education?
Is there any flexibility in the way the curriculum is structured and taught (alternative teaching methods)?
International initiatives for improvement of education


Tablets/Technology
- What are the different types of tablets on the market, price and volume?
- What are the various features/functions currently found on tablets available in the market?
- How long does it take for a technological innovation to increase its penetration rate?
- May the success of Apple affect the future of tablets and their popularity?
- PCs and laptops at schools. How have the penetration rates evolved through time?
- What are the benefits from using tablets, as opposed to laptops/PC's?
- Schools that currently make use of tablet computing and for which subjects/classes/purposes?
- Which is the receptivity of teachers and students concerning technology innovations and involvement of technology in the class?
- Obstacles in adopting tablets


Publishing Companies
Which are the main publishing companies worldwide?
How much power do these companies exercise compared to the other parties involved in the supply chain?
What is the current status of e-books and e-learning?
E-libraries
Open-textbook


Corporate role in Education
What is the involvement of corporations in the educational system currently?
Are there any partnership/ sponsorship between schools/universities and companies?


Systems Diagrams

  • System Diagram: Future of Tablets in Education


Scenario Timelines

  • Timeline for School As Usual

  • Timeline for Another brick in the wall

  • Timeline for Tailored Learning, Tailored Life

  • Timeline for Teacher, leave them kids alone


Driving Forces

1. Technological babysitting in Child Care (IR)

2. E-Books Usage (IR)

3. Decrease of Students' Engagement (SD)

4. Increasing Rate of Technological Change (NS)

5. Increasing Rate of Learning (NS)

6. Increasing Online Collaboration (MM)

7. Tailored and Alternative Learning Systems (MM)

8. Performance Measurement via Technology (MM)

9. Telecommunication technology (CC)

10. Education cost (CC)

11. Impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on education spending (NS)

12. Global Warming Threats (IR)

13. Decrease in competitiveness of EU (SD)

14. Increased number of teachers at retirement age (SD)

Key Group Learnings

  • Group learning happens through language creation: By discussing and analysing the problem we created a terminology with a common understanding which allowed us create more surprising, plausible, deep and quality scenarios
  • To build a good scenarios we dug deep below the surface by interviewing/watching people who had something interesting to say and challenge our way of thinking. In addition within the team we had diverse ways of thinking which helped for high quality scenario creation
  • Scenario thinking is offering a new way of thinking. In our group that was mainly facilitated through challenging each others' ideas and defying assumptions that we were not even aware of

Web-Resources

Complete list of web resources.

References

Education=future picture retrieved [from]
Education complexity picture retrieved [from]
Tablet Evolution picture retrieved [from]

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