The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020

Introduction

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 6 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The Future of Individual Mobility in North West Europe in 2020

Research Questions

Economy

1. What is the projected growth of this region?
   
2. What drives this growth/decline?
   
3. What impact does economic growth/downturn have on government spending for this matter?
   
4. What are the economic uncertainties?
   
5. Will oil prices have an impact on the economical development of the region? Why & How?
   
6. How would the economical cycles of growth and recession influence the way we travel?
   
7. What is the projected change in demographics? And what economical impact would that bring?
   
8. Is environment going to be more or less relevant within the different scenarios of economical growth?
   
9. What is the impact of a change in world trade/economy on mobility?
   

Oil Price

1. How much will oil pricing be influential for economical stability?
   
2. Will we see an increase or a decrease of oil pricing? Why?
   
3. Will governments maintain their policies on levies on oil or will they retract some of it if economic growth is jeopardized?
   
4. What impact would that have to the “revenue stream” of the governments?
   
5. How much are governments dependent on income from oil and oil related products?
   
6. How much are corporations dependent on oil and/or oil related product in this region?
   
7. Will an increase in oil price immediately mean an increase of cost? If yes, can those costs be transferred to the consumer/user?
   
8. What will be the projection: more refinery capacity and more exploration, or vice versa?
   

Security

1. How much is security driven by economic/physical wealth? And how much does security contribute to economical wealth of the nation?
   
2. How will government react to security instability?
   
3. If someone had to choose between food and shelter versus mobility, what will it be?
   
4. Why would people still find the need to move?
   
5. What would be the impact of the threat of terrorism on infrastructure and control and how would it affect mobility?
   

Individualism

1. What are the physiological factors that influence individualism?
   
2. Does globalization with a strong tendency to the western (American) society stimulate individualism?
   
3. Will individualism strengthen or weaken in a crisis situation? Even if it is for a longer period of time?
   
4. How much influence will the “survival mode” have on individuals in moments of difficulties?
   
5. Will individualism be across all the different ethnic or age groups?
   
6. How would individualism translate to mobility issues? How do we want to live, or how will we be forced to live?
   
7. Will individualism lead to migration out of this region to other “better suited” ones?
   
8. What will be the impact of a harshening world (in regards of personal security) when it comes to individualism?
   
9. Will technology lead to more or less individualism?
   
10. If one has to choose between food and shelter versus mobility. What will it be?
    
11. Why would people still find the need to move?
    

Government

1. The trend in the EU and in NL is to build more and more due to housing requirements, how will that affect mobility? How do urban developers cope with mobility issues within this trend?
   
2. What are the challenges that (local, provincial & state) urban developers phase in regards of individual mobility?
   
3. What are current plans of the government regarding major infrastructure projects?
   
4. Which new technologies are planned to be taken in consideration to streamline motion in NL? (Within road, railroad and air networks)
   
5. How will an expanded EU with fading borders impact individual mobility?
   
6. What efforts are taken on a political level to influence mobility?
   (Infrastructure, funding, policies)
7. Will urbanization be ruled by the same principles of today? How will architecture change the landscape of office, home and shopping area? And how will that impact mobility?
   
8. Will increased welfare of the individual create an environment that stimulates individual or group mobility? What are the sociological and psychological drivers to this?
   
9. How will changes in the demographics of the (expanding) EU impact mobility? In particular what does it mean for NL?
   
10. Where would be the most congested areas in 2020?
    
11. How will specific taxes influence the mobility of individuals?
    
12. How will environmental stress influence mobility?
    
13. What are the major uncertainties in urban development in relation to mobility?
    
14. What will be the impact of today's pension system on tomorrows welfare of the elderly?
    
15. What means of transportation will be used in 2020?
    

Distance Working

1. Will distance working be accepted by the corporate world? Even in strong economical recession?
   
2. What is the link between (de)centralization and distance working?
   
3. Will corporation tend to de- or centralize in economical shifts?
   
4. Would people like to work at home or in the office?
   
5. What impact does a social working life have on office vs. home work?
   
6. Will technology help stimulate distance working or due to its complexity inhibit its development?
   

Transition to New Fuels

1. Who are the players in this market?
   
2. Who is investing?
   
3. How much government support is provided for R&D and for new fuels?
   
4. How much will governments be willing to pay in economic downturn?
   
5. How much is the income from taxation of fossil fuels a negative stimulus for governments to stimulate the change?
   
6. How will governments be getting income from these new fuels?
   
7. If no income can be obtained from the new fuels, where would it come from?
   
8. How much is this development influenced by oil prices?
   
9. If oil prices drop due to a strong recession, will the field of new fuels be profiting or go with the flow?
   
10. How quick can the acceptance of the population be achieved?
    
11. What stimuli need to be in place to achieve this?
    

Original Questions

1. How will technology affect individual mobility in the next 15 years? - Claudio
   
2. How and where will people spend their leisure time in 2020? - Cuno
   
3. What will be the impact of new technology on time spent in the office? - Eric
   
4. What are current plans of the government regarding major infrastructure projects? - Radjes
   
5. What will be the impact of oil demand and oil prices on individual mobility? - Radjes
   
6. How will an expanded EU with fading borders impact mobility? - Claudio
   
7. If one has to choose between food and shelter versus mobility. What will it be? - Cuno
   
8. What efforts are taken on a political level to influence mobility? (infrastructure, funding, policies) - Radjes
   
9. What is the impact of a change in world trade on mobility? - Radjes
   
10. Will urbanization be ruled by the same principles of today? How will architecture change the landscape of office, home and shopping area? And how will that impact mobility? - Claudio
    
11. Will increased welfare of the individual create an environment that stimulates individual or group mobility? - Claudio
    
12. What would be the impact of the threat of terrorism on infrastructure and control and how would it affect mobility? - Cuno
    
13. How will changes in the demographics of the (expanding) EU impact mobility? - Eric
    
14. Where would be the most congested areas in 2020 - Radjes
    
15. Why would people still find the need to move? - Eric
    
16. What influence on mobility will have the strong consolidation in the European industry? - Claudio
    
17. What will be the influence of more or less free time have on mobility? - Eric
    
18. How will specific taxes influence the mobility of individuals? - Cuno
    
19. How would the economical cycles of growth and recession influence the whay we travel? - Radjes
    
20. Will decentralisation of political decision making improve the mobility issues in urbanised areas? - Cuno
    
21. How will the balance between preservation of the environment be balanced with the increasing need for mobility? - Claudio
    
22. What will be the impact of todays pension system on tomorrows wellfare of the elderly? - Cuno
    
23. What's the cultural impact on mobility? - Eric
    
24. What means of transportation will be used in 2020? - Radjes
    
25. How will environmental stress influence mobility? - Eric
    

Driving Forces

Economic:

Increasing Demand for Oil
Expected Decrease of Oil Reserves
Slowing Rise of Living Standards In West-Europe

Technological:

Shift to Alternative Energy Sources
Increasing use of broadband internet services with 3G mobile phone
Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop
The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates

Societal:

Movement Towards World Unification
Urbanization and Social Status
Aging population
Increasing Threat of Terrorism
Individualisation-'single person households'
Digital Literacy

Environmental:

Global Warming
Introduction of greenhouse gases emissions trading

Political:

Government Investment in Infrastructure Improvement
Increasing Environmental Taxes
Tax Shift from Ownership to Usage

Links

Note to group: please add your links to secondary research here:

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat: Nota Mobiliteit
National Intelligence Council: International Futures Model, Global Trends 2020 and Global Trends 2015
For a better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem, see Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
RIVM: Effects of a compact urbanisation scenario on passenger mobility [1]
Speech van de minister van Verkeer en Waterstaat, mevrouw T. Netelenbos, voor de opening van de manifestatie Mobiliteit als Uitdaging in Rotterdam op woensdag 9 juni 1999. [2]
Een scenario studie: Omgevingsscenario's en lange termijn verkenning 1995-2020 die momenteel voor Nederland door het CPB wordt gedaan-Radjes:[3]
'Future of the Car' talk highlights MISTI week - [4]
'The future of mobility' Three debates organised by the Transport Research Group at the Bloomberg Auditorium, London - [5]
'A single European Sky' & 'European Aereonautics: EU Vision 2020' - [6]
'The future of mobility: Nokia showcases latest 3G, multimedia and enterprise innovations at CeBIT 2005' - [7]
'The Future of Mobility' Alliance for Global Suistainability - [8]
'Fuel Cells is the Future of Mobility' - [9]
"Road Pricing" Contribution by Plank Holland - [10]
World Economic Forum - Global Risks Topology [11]
World Economic Forum - Risk Report 2005 [12]
Rics Foundation - 2020 Visions of the Future [13] World Tourism Organisation - Changes in leisure time [14]
CBS - Scenarios for The Netherlands [15]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implications_of_a_peak_oil

Other

Both the in class presented and the original messy systems diagrams from the Blackboard group discussion on Friday sept 29, 2005: Media:Systems_Diagram_Future_of_Mobility_Scenario_v0.3.ppt

Results interview with Mr. Jeeninga, ECN, Petten