Next generation mobile devices 2015

Team Composition

Research questions

Mobile Industry

Basic information about mobile industry. Amongst others: producer, designer, telcoms.

Users

Analysis of the Primary Target Market

Mobile devices

Questions about several aspects of mobile devices, like interface, functions, technology, power supply.

Social issues

Influence of social issues like, security, health, environment, culture, equality, ethic, government regulations. And the influence on other industries.

Driving Forces

Driving force template - copy when needed

Social forces

Economic forces

Science & Technology forces

Dependability of the mobile device (trustworthiness)
Power Consumption

Resource & Environment forces

Population & Demographic forces

System Diagram

The following diagram shows the main driving forces in square boxes. The secondary driving forces (not described in this page) are ovals. The enablers are shown as arrows ending with a closed triangle. The inhibitors are shown as arrows with a open diamant at the end. In this way it is possible to show that driving forces can be both enablers and inhibitors at the same time.

High Resolution version (350 KByte)

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Mobile Downfall

This scenario is characterised by a complete loss in trust for technology. Due to increasing cyber criminalism and lack of proper security technology access to the internet regarded as unsafe. Furthermore the increasing number of wireless devices make people dislike mobile technology.

2008/9

Health Mobile telephones are now an integral part of modern telecommunications. In some parts of the world, they are the most reliable or only phones available. Given the immense numbers of users of mobile phones, even small adverse effects on health could have major public health implications. Radio frequency fields penetrate exposed tissues to depths that depend on the frequency - up to a centimetre at the frequencies used by mobile phones. With the integration of various means of communication into a single device, the more radio frequency fields are produced. Scientists have reported other effects of using mobile phones including changes in brain activity, reaction times, and sleep patterns. More studies are in progress to try to confirm these findings.

Cybercrime & Security Cybercrime is on the rise, more and more websites and systems of well known companies are hacked. Sensitive information about customers, ranging from personal details to credit card numbers, are stolen and used for criminal purposes. As a result the security of the usage of internet is a hot issue. Makers of computer viruses are starting to target the few dominant operating systems used on the latest generation of integrated mobile phones, leading to another breach in security. Technology to use your mobile device as a means of paying and banking, able to replace the current standards of paying with plastic and internet banking, are being developed and will be introduced shortly.

Trust in mobile devices Several major issues both in the domains of health and security are slowly instilling doubts in many mobile devices users about the safety of said devices. Some users are starting to mistrust the new technologies and have started a new trend in thinking for the next decennia.

2012

2015

Scenario 2: Mobile Challenge

This scenario is characterized by people’s high needs for high-tech mobile devices and low economy.

After years of development in mobile technology, people are already used to have new, cool gadgets coming out every year and their needs for those mobile devices is stronger, especially among younger generations. However, there are more and more serious factors hindering the development of world economy. Natural resources have already become the bottleneck of many countries’ development. People have less faith in the economy of the next few years. The oil price bubble and the fear for dollar collapse are examples. Negative attitude influences purchases and investments, resulting in a economy downturn.

2008/9

Economy trend: World economy is unstable this year, this can be seen from several manifests: the stagnant American economy and the decreasing value of the dollar, the increasing oil prices, the inflation in the EU and the unpredictable Asian economy.

Unlike a normal recession, the US economy is still growing in GDP. In 2007 the American Gross Domestic Product grew 2.2% to $13.8 trillion. But the dollar becomes less valuable than before. Americans have too many mortgages, too many credit cards and too much national debt. They rely on foreign imports from China and other nations and their own economy has become too service oriented and lacks manufacturing. This makes dollar less valuable than before. Because this situation in America can’t be changed in a short time, the 2009 recovery may be feeble. Since America accounts for about a quarter of world GDP, the downturn in America will influence the world economy a lot. EU is facing inflation recently. European Central Bank already raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25% in an effort to rein in escalating inflation in the 15-nation euro zone. But now, we’re still not sure if the economy will recover or not. Asian economy is still undetermined. Chinese economy in recent years is supported by the Olympics in a large part. Many people hold a negative attitude towards its economy after the Olympics. China has a lot of debts because of Olympics and this year, a big earthquake hit southwest China, there will be even more social problems now and in the near future. And other countries like India and Japan are also restricted by a large population and barren resources. The high oil price no doubt gives these countries a strong hit. So we’re also not sure that the Asian economy will be strong in the future.

Currently from the perspective of the world economy, we’re still not sure about the future trends. But people have more fear than before. Especially when the high oil price is influencing their daily life and causing social problems, like strike. In conclusion, the keyword for economy in this and next year is unstable.

Device:This year’s biggest news in mobile industry is the launch of iPhone. iPhone's functions include those of a camera phone and portable media player (equivalent to the iPod) in addition to text messaging and visual voicemail. It also offers Internet services including e-mail, web browsing, and local Wi-Fi connectivity. This all-in-one gadget is like a small computer, but people actually don't think about their phones as computers. iPhone attracts our attention but because of its high price, it’s still not a mobile device that could be owned by the majority. The trend this year is to combine a lot of functions in one device. But people already start to think about the practicability of mobile gadgets of millions of applications. Not every function is used of the same frequency by everyone. Customization starts to emerge. Also not every country in the world has the same speed internet connection. So single standard for a mobile device doesn’t fit anymore. Adjust to local country is necessary for the promotion of mobile device.

2012

Due to developing markets in Asia, new applications from Asia diffuse to Europe. Also the development in Asia is low cost.

Economy trend: After the Olympics, hot money gradually withdraws from China, and China has to face many debts overseas. Inflation, large population, real estate bubble… China is also facing more and more social problems at home. The economy growth is slowing down. Influenced by high natural resource price and world economy stagnation, Japan’s facing even bigger recession and India’s development is strongly hindered by its large population and barren resources. The whole Asia economy is going down at 2012. As the biggest manufacturing base and market, Asian economy connects close with the world economy. The recession diffused to Europe and America and deteriorates the economy there. The economy background gives people less confidence in their future life, which results in less purchase. And in the end induces less investment opportunities. This vicious circle brings world economy to a low point.

Devices:Because of companies’ less R&D, high inflation rate and people’s less real income, on one hand, they think more when buying new staff; on the other hand, their need for new mobile gadgets is still strong. The result is people become more rational about the applications they get and the price they pay. The market for all-in-one mobile gadgets becomes smaller everyday because people don’t want to pay extra money for the applications they never or seldom use. The single function mobile gadgets become top sellers in media market again. So you’ll see after years of holding big flashing mobile devices in their hands, people start to use simple application devices. They call with one gadget and listen to music with another one. Simplification becomes the mainstream in 2012.

2015

Economy trend:

Devices:

Scenario 3: Mobile Heaven

In this scenario, both market dynamics and adoption of new media is high, fuelled by customer needs and responsiveness, a favorable economy and relentless technological development. The device convergence, a media sector which is a patchwork of numerous niche markets and the unification of service providers under a wireless umbrella, constitute an ideal environment for digital adepts, driven by the consumer who is always “in control”.

2008/9

Device Convergence - Main Players: In 2008 the introduction of the iPhone 3G set a new benchmark for the mobile landscape and swayed consumers, experts and critics alike, marking the obsolescence of device divergence. What used to be a ridiculous variety of single-purpose gadgets (notebooks, GPS, mp3 players, mobile phones, cameras, PSPs and Nintendo DSs etc) has shaped up to become a single device for mobile and home applications. Location based services outgrew the traditional GPS market. New standards such as on demand video and Mobile TV, as well as ubiquitous open-source applications are about to become the norm. Mid 2009 and Google has taken the lead with Android, featuring rich point-of-interest content as well as location-bound social networking. iPhone 3G may have been the first to make mobile Internet real and usable, Android’s open platform however won over the developer community, leaving behind Nokia’s Symbian and delivering the final blow to Blackberry’s limited interface.

Economy turnaround: The success of 2008 Beijing Olympics, the fall of Burma’s junta and North Korea’s modernization gave the Asia-Pacific market a remarkable lead. Inflation rates in western markets have gone down, while innovation is now guided by “living lab” communities throughout Europe and Asia. Europe is still number one market, followed by Asia and US in the third place. In the meantime, ecological awareness and political shifts reflected onto mobile activism, which in turn translates into more intense and ubiquitous mobile device usage.

2012

Device Convergence - Main Players: In 2012, after taking over TomTom and acquiring Canon’s lens licenses, Nokia responds with the bendable OLED, fully customizable and WiMax capable Aeon model, rivaled only by LG’s Prada 3. Sony, yet to recover from PS3’s and Bravia’s commercial misgivings, doesn’t make a move on the mobile market until 2012, alongside with Samsung, delivering the 4G PSP3.

Economy turnaround: The thawing of the Arctic polar icecaps in 2011 unleashed a wealth of natural resources, mineral and oil, reanimating a global economy struck by 2008’s oil shortage. New resources and increased consumer buying power and needs are the main reasons that made the electronics boom possible.

Privacy web quality mark: Crucial to the mass acceptance of new appliances and services is that consumers trust the integrity of the providers, with privacy and security being the hotly debated subject in the years 2008 to 2012. Providers listened to calls for regulation and set up an international watchdog in conjunction with an activist privacy-protection organization.

Device Convergence: The most important aspect is that services are perceived as being relevant and convenient. On the one hand the dependability of well-known services has increased (eg. anytime, anywhere mobile video), on the other hand new ones are conjured and developed such as GPS-based location bound services. Both WiFi hotspots and Wimax have taken off, aided by Fem-to-cell hubs and wide user acceptance. As a result the consumer has permanent broadband access which enables rich media content, HD mobile TV and mobile MMORPG gaming. And of course the implications for service providers are huge, with the existence of a single service providing end-to-end IP-based network.

Device convergence – Media consequences: DVB-H, the broadcast technology for handhelds was unsuccessful. People, being accustomed to have complete control over what they watch and when, are unwilling to settle with a linear broadcast. Only parties that embraced a cross-media strategy have survived, which left out a majority of laggards.

2015

By 2015 personal electronics have become an integral part of the lives of most people, young and old. Technology sophistication is closely bound with user friendliness so that everybody can handle it. Nor is the price an obstacle, since most of the services are offered for free, thanks to adverts and sponsoring models. Thus the age and status demographic margins are blurred, with devices and protocols usable by consumers of virtually any age and financial state.

Device Convergence: By 2015 there is no distinction between home and mobile phones, with the device simply searching for the most appropriate network to carry its traffic. With self-service now being the majority of service requirements, the call centers’ purpose of existence are to deal with the exceptions and manage more complex interactions. By 2015, the first nanite-enhanced concept handsets are appearing in technological exhibitions in Tokyo and Korea. The outdated Li-ion batteries have been fully replaced by hydrogen cells, the increased capability and easy recharge of which have made the long sustainability of converged devices possible. Since 2012, mobile wallet, m-banking, and RFID product encoding, recognizable by mobile devices, have shifted the way payments are conducted.

Device Convergence - Main Players: By 2015 Motorola and Blackberry have completely retracted from the mobile landscape. The company formerly known as Microsoft has been severed and spread threefold into Linux, and the now merged Google and Apple, being one of the three global players: the other two are Nokia-Ericsson in Europe and LG-Sony-Samsung in Asia. And last but not least, the ubiquitous mobile phone is more than ever a fashion-driven piece of gadgetry, with either minimalist or extravagant designs, such as the swiveling 2011 Nokia N99 which automatically revolved into a standing picture/video frame.

Privacy web quality mark: Based on government funding, Wimax license providers and private groups, this project has proved itself efficient by 2015, and is able to conduct effective supervision over the protection of user privacy. Each site and software provider who subscribes to the strict protocol and undergoes an annual privacy audit is entitled to carry the privacy-proof web quality mark.

Device convergence – Media consequences: The advent of personal electronics has revolutionalized the media landscape. While some large parties are still active as oligopolists, such as CNN and BBC, most media segments have lots of small providers and some have lost ground completely. Competition is fierce and margins wafer-thin. Newspapers are barely read, since mobile blogging and live mobile RSS have made them redundant. TV stations compete fiercely, but despite the immense number of offerings it’s almost impossible to surpass the nearly-perfect navigation system Google has created for all possible kinds of content; the latter includes the fully mobile operative gTunes which has overthrown iTunes since late 2009.

Next generation mobile devices 2015

Contents

Team Composition

Research questions

Mobile Industry

Users

Mobile devices

Social issues

Driving Forces

Social forces

Economic forces

Science & Technology forces

Resource & Environment forces

Population & Demographic forces

System Diagram

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Mobile Downfall

2008/9

2012

2015

Scenario 2: Mobile Challenge

2008/9

2012

2015

Scenario 3: Mobile Heaven

2008/9

2012

2015

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Next generation mobile devices 2015

Team Composition

Research questions

Mobile Industry

Users

Mobile devices

Social issues

Driving Forces

Social forces

Economic forces

Science & Technology forces

Resource & Environment forces

Population & Demographic forces

System Diagram

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Mobile Downfall

2008/9

2012

2015

Scenario 2: Mobile Challenge

2008/9

2012

2015

Scenario 3: Mobile Heaven

2008/9

2012

2015

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