Next generation mobile devices 2015

Team Composition

• Lei Zeng
  
• Klaas-Dirk van Opstal
  
• Sander Hutman
  
• Dimitrios Kritsilis
  
• Sjaak Koot
  
  

Research questions

Mobile Industry

Basic information about mobile industry. Amongst others: producer, designer, telcoms.

1. How much money does everyone spend per year (differentiate to access)?
2. What is the average price of a mobile phone?
3. What kind of mobile phone models are sold most?
4. How many mobile phones are sold every year?
5. What are the mobile industry trends in 2007-2008?
6. What information is there on the mobile phone memory industry?
7. How big is the mobile phone industry?
8. Who is the biggest mobile device manufacturer in term of devices sold and produced?
9. Who are the biggest players on the market?
10. What is the business model of the service providers?
11. What is the value chain of Mobile TV?
12. What pricing models are possible?
13. What will be the materials used in the next generation mobile devices?
14. What is the typical replacement cycle of a mobile device?

Users

Analysis of the Primary Target Market

1. How is the use of mobile technology across the age groups? Is there other good classifications of mobile users?
2. In what situations is a mobile device used?
3. In what locations do people use mobile technology?
4. How much time do people use mobile devices on average?
5. How many people use mobile devices besides voice activity?
6. Can people live without a mobile devices?
7. For what reason do people buy mobile technology, impress, copying others?
8. How many months do people change their mobile phones on average?
9. What factors can influence People's satisfaction about mobile devices?
10. Are people satisfied with the current state of mobile technology?
11. What are the reasons for mobile service dissatisfaction?
12. What kind of people will use mobile technology in 2015?
13. Is there any niche market for mobile devices?
14. Why do people want to be reachable, do they even want to be reachable?
15. Are people worried about privacy and security issues when using mobile devices?
16. Do people prefer to have different functionality in different devices, or do they want one single device with all the functionalities?
17. Can there be selective customization in mobile devices equivalent to the computer industry (select components, enable add-ons)
18. Convergence of devices will make mobile technology more complicated. Will this scare off most people?

Mobile devices

Questions about several aspects of mobile devices, like interface, functions, technology, power supply.

1. What kind of user interface technology is available in 2015?
2. What does the mobile wireless network infrastructure currently look like?
3. What is the role of fashion with mobile technology?
4. What will be the effect of bendable OLED displays on mobile device design?
5. What kind of data do people access using mobile technology?
6. What kind of bandwidth is needed for applications?
7. What is the future for modular applications in mobile technology?
8. Who will develop these functional modules?
9. How will piracy affect those modules?
10. What are Femtocells, and their potential effect on wireless mobile networks?
11. What is the perceived functionality of an i-phone? Do such devices (or similar from NOKIA and Sony-Ericsson) cast MP3 devices obsolete?
12. What application are used on the mobile phone and how often are they used?
13. What do we mean with mobility?
14. Can the mobile phone be used as a wallet?
15. What possibilities does Wimax offer?
16. What is the potential of broadband connectivity on mobile devices?
17. Will VOIP slowly take over the traditional mobile phone carriers?
18. How can compression be used for mobile technology?
19. What is the mobile technology roadmap?
20. All these new technologies imply increased energy consumption. Is there a more efficient alternative to Li-ion power batteries? Can it be environment friendly?
21. What alternatives are there as power supply to batteries?
22. What is Mobile 2.0?
23. Which parts of the mobile device consume the most energy?

Social issues

Influence of social issues like, security, health, environment, culture, equality, ethic, government regulations. And the influence on other industries.

1. Does Mobile technology pose a security threat (terrorism, difficult to trace)?
2. What kind of security threats will be there for mobile technology (virusses, eavesdropping, ...)?
3. Does mobile phone radiation have negative effects on human beings?
4. Does the increased sophistication of connectivity networks pose any tangible health risks?
5. How can mobile technology improve health, can it be used to store medical history?
6. What’s mobile waste’s influence on our environment?
7. Can mobile device be “green” in the year 2015?
8. How does mobile technology impact a society?
9. Can mobile devices be used for parental control?
10. How does culture affect the use of mobile technology?
11. With the development of mobile devices, is there more or less equality in the society?
12. Does mobile technology affect social responsibility?
13. Will the new mobile devices too difficult for the old people to handle?
14. Are mobile phone implants (tooth or brain) feasible, or even ethically acceptable?
15. How can mobile technology influence a language?
16. What is mobile activism?
17. What government departments supervise this industry?
18. How can the government use mobile technology?
19. What other industries will be influenced by the development of mobile devices?
20. How will e-banking develop?
21. How will e-commerce develop?
22. Will advertising companies manage to use new mobile technology?
23. Does mobile technology make land lines obsolete?
24. Will internet television make normal television obsolete?
25. Which countries are the furthest ahead with mobile technology?

Driving Forces

Driving force template - copy when needed

Social forces

• Rise of Nomad-ism
• Quest for self-identity

Economic forces

• The developing of E-commerce
• The growing Chinese economy

Science & Technology forces

• Dependability of the mobile device (trustworthiness)
• Power Consumption

Resource & Environment forces

• The increasing scarcity of resources
• The damaging effect of electronics on the environment

Population & Demographic forces

• Technology acceptance in developing countries
• Changing demography in western countries

System Diagram

The following diagram shows the main driving forces in square boxes. The secondary driving forces (not described in this page) are ovals. The enablers are shown as arrows ending with a closed triangle. The inhibitors are shown as arrows with a open diamant at the end. In this way it is possible to show that driving forces can be both enablers and inhibitors at the same time.

High Resolution version (350 KByte)

Scenarios

Mobile Downfall

This scenario is characterised by a complete loss in trust for technology. Due to increasing cyber criminalism and lack of proper security technology access to the internet regarded as unsafe. Furthermore the increasing number of wireless devices make people dislike mobile technology.

Mobile Challenge

This scenario is characterized by people’s high needs for high-tech mobile devices and low economy.

After years of development in mobile technology, people are already used to have new, cool gadgets coming out every year and their needs for those mobile devices is stronger, especially among younger generations. However, there are more and more serious factors hindering the development of world economy. Natural resource has already become the bottleneck of many countries’ development. People have less faith in the economy of next few years. The oil price bubble and the fear for dollar collapse are the examples. Negative attitude influences furchase and investments, results in a economy downturn.

2008/9

Economy trend: World economy is unstable this year, this can be seen from several manifests: the stagnant American economy and sinking dollar, the boosting oil price, the inflation in EU, the unpredictable Asian economy.

Unlike a normal recession, the US economy is still growing in GDP. In 2007 the American Gross Domestic Product grew 2.2% to $13.8 trillion. But the dollar becomes less valuable than before. Americans have too many mortgages, too many credit cards and too much national debt. They rely on foreign imports from China and other nations and their own economy has become too service oriented and lacks manufacturing. This makes dollar less valuable than before. Because this situation in America can’t be changed in a short time, the 2009 recovery may be feeble. Since America accounts for about a quarter of world GDP, the downturn in America will influence the world economy a lot. EU is facing inflation recently. European Central Bank already raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25% in an effort to rein in escalating inflation in the 15-nation euro zone. But now, we’re still not sure if the economy will recover or not. Asian economy is still undetermined. Chinese economy in recent years is supported by the Olympics in a large part. Many people hold a negative attitude towards its economy after the Olympics. China has a lot of debts because of Olympics and this year, a big earthquake hit southwest China, there will be even more social problems now and in the near future. And other countries like India and Japan are also restricted by a large population and barren resources. The high oil price no doubt gives these countries a strong hit. So we’re also not sure that the Asian economy will be strong in the future.

Currently from the perspective of the world economy, we’re still not sure about the future trends. But people have more fear than before. Especially when the high oil price is influencing their daily life and causing social problems, like strike. In conclusion, the keyword for economy in this and next year is unstable.

Devices:

2012

Due to developing markets in Asia, new applications from Asia diffuse to Europe. Also the development in Asia is low cost.

Economy trend:

Devices:

2015

Economy trend:

Devices:

Mobile Heaven

In this scenario, both market dynamics and adoption of new media is high, fuelled by customer needs and responsiveness, a favorable economy and relentless technological development. The device convergence, a media sector which is a patchwork of numerous niche markets and the unification of service providers under a wireless umbrella, constitute an ideal environment for digital adepts, driven by the consumer who is always “in control”.

2008/9

Device Convergence - Main Players: In 2008 the introduction of the iPhone 3G set a new benchmark for the mobile landscape and swayed consumers, experts and critics alike, marking the obsolescence of device divergence. What used to be a ridiculous variety of single-purpose gadgets (notebooks, GPS, mp3 players, mobile phones, cameras, PSPs and Nintendo DSs etc) has shaped up to become a single device for mobile and home applications. Location based services outgrew the traditional GPS market. New standards such as on demand video and Mobile TV, as well as ubiquitous open-source applications are about to become the norm. Mid 2009 and Google has taken the lead with Android, featuring rich point-of-interest content as well as location-bound social networking. iPhone 3G may have been the first to make mobile Internet real and usable, Android’s open platform however won over the developer community, leaving behind Nokia’s Symbian and delivering the final blow to Blackberry’s limited interface.

Economy turnaround: The success of 2008 Beijing Olympics, the fall of Burma’s junta and North Korea’s modernization gave the Asia-Pacific market a remarkable lead. Inflation rates in western markets have gone down, while innovation is now guided by “living lab” communities throughout Europe and Asia. Europe is still number one market, followed by Asia and US in the third place. In the meantime, ecological awareness and political shifts reflected onto mobile activism, which in turn translates into more intense and ubiquitous mobile device usage.

2012

Device Convergence - Main Players: In 2012, after taking over TomTom and acquiring Canon’s lens licenses, Nokia responds with the bendable OLED, fully customizable and WiMax capable Aeon model, rivaled only by LG’s Prada 3. Sony, yet to recover from PS3’s and Bravia’s commercial misgivings, doesn’t make a move on the mobile market until 2012, alongside with Samsung, delivering the 4G PSP3.

Economy turnaround: The thawing of the Arctic polar icecaps in 2011 unleashed a wealth of natural resources, mineral and oil, reanimating a global economy struck by 2008’s oil shortage. New resources and increased consumer buying power and needs are the main reasons that made the electronics boom possible.

Privacy web quality mark: Crucial to the mass acceptance of new appliances and services is that consumers trust the integrity of the providers, with privacy and security being the hotly debated subject in the years 2008 to 2012. Providers listened to calls for regulation and set up an international watchdog in conjunction with an activist privacy-protection organization.

Device Convergence: The most important aspect is that services are perceived as being relevant and convenient. On the one hand the dependability of well-known services has increased (eg. anytime, anywhere mobile video), on the other hand new ones are conjured and developed such as GPS-based location bound services. Both WiFi hotspots and Wimax have taken off, aided by Fem-to-cell hubs and wide user acceptance. As a result the consumer has permanent broadband access which enables rich media content, HD mobile TV and mobile MMORPG gaming. And of course the implications for service providers are huge, with the existence of a single service providing end-to-end IP-based network.

Device convergence – Media consequences: DVB-H, the broadcast technology for handhelds was unsuccessful. People, being accustomed to have complete control over what they watch and when, are unwilling to settle with a linear broadcast. Only parties that embraced a cross-media strategy have survived, which left out a majority of laggards.

2015

By 2015 personal electronics have become an integral part of the lives of most people, young and old. Technology sophistication is closely bound with user friendliness so that everybody can handle it. Nor is the price an obstacle, since most of the services are offered for free, thanks to adverts and sponsoring models. Thus the age and status demographic margins are blurred, with devices and protocols usable by consumers of virtually any age and financial state.

Device Convergence: By 2015 there is no distinction between home and mobile phones, with the device simply searching for the most appropriate network to carry its traffic. With self-service now being the majority of service requirements, the call centers’ purpose of existence are to deal with the exceptions and manage more complex interactions. By 2015, the first nanite-enhanced concept handsets are appearing in technological exhibitions in Tokyo and Korea. The outdated Li-ion batteries have been fully replaced by hydrogen cells, the increased capability and easy recharge of which have made the long sustainability of converged devices possible. Since 2012, mobile wallet, m-banking, and RFID product encoding, recognizable by mobile devices, have shifted the way payments are conducted.

Device Convergence - Main Players: By 2015 Motorola and Blackberry have completely retracted from the mobile landscape. The company formerly known as Microsoft has been severed and spread threefold into Linux, and the now merged Google and Apple, being one of the three global players: the other two are Nokia-Ericsson in Europe and LG-Sony-Samsung in Asia. And last but not least, the ubiquitous mobile phone is more than ever a fashion-driven piece of gadgetry, with either minimalist or extravagant designs, such as the swiveling 2011 Nokia N99 which automatically revolved into a standing picture/video frame.

Privacy web quality mark: Based on government funding, Wimax license providers and private groups, this project has proved itself efficient by 2015, and is able to conduct effective supervision over the protection of user privacy. Each site and software provider who subscribes to the strict protocol and undergoes an annual privacy audit is entitled to carry the privacy-proof web quality mark.

Device convergence – Media consequences: The advent of personal electronics has revolutionalized the media landscape. While some large parties are still active as oligopolists, such as CNN and BBC, most media segments have lots of small providers and some have lost ground completely. Competition is fierce and margins wafer-thin. Newspapers are barely read, since mobile blogging and live mobile RSS have made them redundant. TV stations compete fiercely, but despite the immense number of offerings it’s almost impossible to surpass the nearly-perfect navigation system Google has created for all possible kinds of content; the latter includes the fully mobile operative gTunes which has overthrown iTunes since late 2009.