Difference between revisions of "The future of Browsers"
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<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team members</h2> | <h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team members</h2> | ||
* Sharjeel Malik<br> | * Sharjeel Malik<br> | ||
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We intend to focus our scenario’s research into the future of the web browser. In other words | We intend to focus our scenario’s research into the future of the web browser. In other words | ||
what justifies the existence of the web browser? | what justifies the existence of the web browser? | ||
< | <ul> | ||
<li>Is it going to be a stronger commodity, especially because of all the development and | |||
trends around the web browser? | trends around the web browser?</li> | ||
< | <li>Or is it going to be just a supportive tool and shift more to the background in the future?</li> | ||
<li>Is the browser going to be blown away as a staged setting with replacing technology or | |||
< | because of sociological awareness?</li> | ||
<li>How does the future of the browser fit into the strategy of companies like Mozilla, Opera, | |||
because of sociological awareness? | Apple, Google and Microsoft?</li> | ||
< | <li>Will there be eventually one main browser? Are the browser wars going to continue?</li> | ||
<li>What are the roles of the upcoming economies (Asia, South America) to future | |||
Apple, Google and Microsoft? | development of the browser?</li> | ||
< | </ul> | ||
development of the browser? | |||
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Driving forces</h2> | <h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Driving forces</h2> | ||
[[1. Technology and web standards]] | |||
<br> [[2. Cloud computing]] | <br> [[2. Cloud computing]] | ||
<br> [[3. Location based information]] | <br> [[3. Location based information]] | ||
| Line 42: | Line 36: | ||
<br> [[7. Global mobile penetration]] | <br> [[7. Global mobile penetration]] | ||
<br> [[8. The web as a video medium]] | <br> [[8. The web as a video medium]] | ||
<br> [[9. The expansion of home automation ( | <br> [[9. The expansion of home automation (ubiquitous computing)]] | ||
<br> [[10. Embedded systems]] | <br> [[10. Embedded systems]] | ||
<br> [[11. 24/7 Internet, Autmated browsertasks]] | <br> [[11. 24/7 Internet, Autmated browsertasks]] | ||
<br> [[12. Transformation from textual to more visual internet]] | <br> [[12. Transformation from textual to more visual internet]] | ||
<br><br> | |||
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Background research</h2> | <h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Background research</h2> | ||
<b>What was Ted Nelsons original idea regarding ‘browsing’?</b> <br> | <b>What was Ted Nelsons original idea regarding ‘browsing’?</b> <br> | ||
Ted Nelson’s original idea regarding browsing was ‘open space’. His idea was a medium that is above the staged setting of paper size. Most of websites or documents of today are based on A4 size or other paper formats. | Ted Nelson’s original idea regarding browsing was ‘open space’. His idea was a medium that is above the staged setting of paper size. Most of websites or documents of today are based on A4 size or other paper formats. | ||
Ted Nelson: ”So, the point was to be able to have a medium that would record all the connections and all the structures and all the thoughts that paper could not. Since the computer could hold any structure in any form, this was the way to go.” | Ted Nelson: ”So, the point was to be able to have a medium that would record all the connections and all the structures and all the thoughts that paper could not. Since the computer could hold any structure in any form, this was the way to go.” | ||
Other quotes of Ted Nelson are: “The four walls of paper are like a prison because every idea wants to spring out in all directions - everything is connected with everything else, sometimes more than others.” What Ted Nelson is in fact suggesting is that we all have to go fully digital to have fewer constraints such as printing. Ted Nelson: “What we now call the browser is whatever defines the web. What fits in the browser is the World Wide Web and a number of trivial standards to handle that so that the content comes.” | Other quotes of Ted Nelson are: “The four walls of paper are like a prison because every idea wants to spring out in all directions - everything is connected with everything else, sometimes more than others.” What Ted Nelson is in fact suggesting is that we all have to go fully digital to have fewer constraints such as printing. Ted Nelson: “What we now call the browser is whatever defines the web. What fits in the browser is the World Wide Web and a number of trivial standards to handle that so that the content comes.” | ||
| Line 63: | Line 57: | ||
The computer technology (and browsing) as it is now, is still very limited. Alan Kay states that there is much more undiscovered potential for the computer. Alan Kay: "The protean nature of the computer is such that it can act like a machine or like a language to be shaped and exploited." | The computer technology (and browsing) as it is now, is still very limited. Alan Kay states that there is much more undiscovered potential for the computer. Alan Kay: "The protean nature of the computer is such that it can act like a machine or like a language to be shaped and exploited." | ||
<br><br> | <br><br> | ||
< | <h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Cheatsheet</h2> | ||
[[1. How many browsers are there?]] | |||
<br> [[2. What is the market share per browser?]] | |||
<br> [[3. What are the costs of each browser?]] | |||
<br> [[4. What is the browser's market share per country?]] | |||
<br> [[4.b Which browser is gaining / losing the market?]] | |||
<br> [[5. What is a browser?]] | |||
<br> [[6. Which browser is the most popular in the upcoming economies?]] | |||
<br> [[7. What are the applications of a browser?]] | |||
<br> [[8. Who invented / started the browser?]] | |||
<br> [[9. What is browsing?]] | |||
<br> [[10. Which browsers are open source?]] | |||
<br> [[11. What browsers are most used in corporate life?]] | |||
<br> [[12. What was the original demand for a browser?]] | |||
<br> [[13. What is the most used browser content (text / video / audio / images)?]] | |||
<br> [[14. How did the browser evolve since it was first invented?]] | |||
<br> [[15. Is the development of computer technology influenced by the browser?]] | |||
<br> [[16. Do browsers always require a computer?]] | |||
<br> [[17. Can websites only be viewed by browsers?]] | |||
<br> [[18. Are rich web applications ( web 2.0 ) as good as desktop software?]] | |||
<br> [[19. Are browsers platform dependent?]] | |||
<br> [[20. How are browsers taking over the tasks of desktop applications.]] | |||
<br><br> | |||
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Inference matrix</h2> | |||
[[Image:im.gif]] | |||
<br><br> | <br><br> | ||
<b>Scenario 2:</b> Content and search providers are going to take over the control over the internet users behaviour (and its needs and requirements). This will result in a strong centralized internet experience. The decentralized computer operating system will disappear and probably be integrated into a browser concept. | <h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Core Strategy</h2> | ||
[[Image:S123.jpg]] | |||
<br> | |||
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Scenario Tree</h2> | |||
[[Image:Strategytree.jpg]] | |||
<br> | |||
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Scenario's</h2> | |||
<b>[[Scenario 1, The third World War (of the browser):]]</b> New ways to interact with the browser will launch a new kind of dominant design resulting in a new era of browser wars. | |||
<br> | |||
<b>[[Scenario 2, BrowOS:]]</b> Content and search providers are going to take over the control over the internet users behaviour (and its needs and requirements). This will result in a strong centralized internet experience. The decentralized computer operating system will disappear and probably be integrated into a browser concept. | |||
<br> | |||
<b>[[Scenario 3, Ubiquitous Browsing:]]</b> The web becomes semantic, and the browser consists of modules build on a standardized core. You can browse the web, as well as electrical appliances within and aroud your house. | |||
<br> | |||
<b>[[Scenario 4, SandBoxMania:]]</b> Personal Computing in 2019 will be driven by the Virtual Machine sandbox. This change the entire structure of software production as we know it today. Browsing and especially browser development will be totally different. Also a lot more visually oriented. | |||
<br> | |||
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Comments Presentation(8'th of May 2009)</h2> | |||
<i>Comments were given by a panel of top-managers selected by Daniel Erasmus, CEO of DTN</i> | |||
<br> | |||
<br> | |||
Mr.Canter: | |||
<ul> | |||
<li><i>All scenarios will exist</i></li> | |||
<li>Input devices will change radically but not within 10 years, the timespan will more likely be within the next 20 years.</li> | |||
<li>What baby steps should be taken to get to the scenarios mentioned?</li> | |||
</ul> | |||
CEO Panel: | |||
<ul> | |||
<li>What is the acceptance rate from the millenials when it comes to new browser technology?</li> | |||
</ul> | |||
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">References</h2> | |||
Ted Nelson: ZigZag Structures http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEj9vqVvHPc <br> | |||
Ted Nelson: Xanadu Spaces http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=En_2T7KH6RA<br> | |||
Marc Canter's blog: http://marc.blogs.it/<br> | |||
Latest revision as of 14:57, 23 May 2009
Team members
- Sharjeel Malik
- Raman Cheloi
- Mathijs Vlasveld
- Peter Hendriks
Paragraph
Our scenario’s research topic is about ‘the future of the computer browser’. More specified we are interested in web-browsing and not file or private network browsing. This due to the latest trends (and hypes) regarding the World Wide Web like cloud computing, web 2.0 and web 3.0. These technologies start to get more and more weaved into the interest of the business world. Transactions are done with browsers but entertainment is even as important. We intend to focus our scenario’s research into the future of the web browser. In other words what justifies the existence of the web browser?
- Is it going to be a stronger commodity, especially because of all the development and trends around the web browser?
- Or is it going to be just a supportive tool and shift more to the background in the future?
- Is the browser going to be blown away as a staged setting with replacing technology or because of sociological awareness?
- How does the future of the browser fit into the strategy of companies like Mozilla, Opera, Apple, Google and Microsoft?
- Will there be eventually one main browser? Are the browser wars going to continue?
- What are the roles of the upcoming economies (Asia, South America) to future development of the browser?
Driving forces
1. Technology and web standards
2. Cloud computing
3. Location based information
4. Mobile Internet
5. Social networking sites
6. Browser games - is it the future?
7. Global mobile penetration
8. The web as a video medium
9. The expansion of home automation (ubiquitous computing)
10. Embedded systems
11. 24/7 Internet, Autmated browsertasks
12. Transformation from textual to more visual internet
Background research
What was Ted Nelsons original idea regarding ‘browsing’?
Ted Nelson’s original idea regarding browsing was ‘open space’. His idea was a medium that is above the staged setting of paper size. Most of websites or documents of today are based on A4 size or other paper formats.
Ted Nelson: ”So, the point was to be able to have a medium that would record all the connections and all the structures and all the thoughts that paper could not. Since the computer could hold any structure in any form, this was the way to go.”
Other quotes of Ted Nelson are: “The four walls of paper are like a prison because every idea wants to spring out in all directions - everything is connected with everything else, sometimes more than others.” What Ted Nelson is in fact suggesting is that we all have to go fully digital to have fewer constraints such as printing. Ted Nelson: “What we now call the browser is whatever defines the web. What fits in the browser is the World Wide Web and a number of trivial standards to handle that so that the content comes.”
What was Douglas Engelbart’s original idea about the digital revolution?
Douglas Engelbart’s idea of the computer is about the same as Ted Nelson. He sees printing and the paper as constrainsts of further digital revolutions. Douglas Engelbart: “The digital revolution is far more significant than the invention of writing or even of printing.”
Douglas Engelbart had a correct prediction regarding the mobility of information. Douglas Engelbart: “In 20 or 30 years, you'll be able to hold in your hand as much computing knowledge as exists now in the whole city, or even the whole world.”
What was Alan Kay’s original idea of the computer?
Alan Kay is an optimistic person. His idea’s are based on getting the whole world population online. He considers himself a serious person. Alan Kay: "People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware." This quote can be related to the $100 laptop that he was working on with his MIT students. Because of his $100 laptop project, a major shift in the computer hardware market started with commercial companies taking over his concept by developing small sized notebooks at very cheap prices. Nobody first believed in the concept, rejecting it because of the ridiculous low price. However notebooks with high end hardware for $300 are normal now. Alan Kay: "Quite a few people have to believe something is normal before it becomes normal - a sort of 'voting' situation. But once the threshold is reached, then everyone demands to do whatever it is."
Alan Kay’s idea of the future of the computer is based on his idea by inventing things. Alan Kay: "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
The computer technology (and browsing) as it is now, is still very limited. Alan Kay states that there is much more undiscovered potential for the computer. Alan Kay: "The protean nature of the computer is such that it can act like a machine or like a language to be shaped and exploited."
Cheatsheet
1. How many browsers are there?
2. What is the market share per browser?
3. What are the costs of each browser?
4. What is the browser's market share per country?
4.b Which browser is gaining / losing the market?
5. What is a browser?
6. Which browser is the most popular in the upcoming economies?
7. What are the applications of a browser?
8. Who invented / started the browser?
9. What is browsing?
10. Which browsers are open source?
11. What browsers are most used in corporate life?
12. What was the original demand for a browser?
13. What is the most used browser content (text / video / audio / images)?
14. How did the browser evolve since it was first invented?
15. Is the development of computer technology influenced by the browser?
16. Do browsers always require a computer?
17. Can websites only be viewed by browsers?
18. Are rich web applications ( web 2.0 ) as good as desktop software?
19. Are browsers platform dependent?
20. How are browsers taking over the tasks of desktop applications.
Inference matrix
Core Strategy
Scenario Tree
Scenario's
Scenario 1, The third World War (of the browser): New ways to interact with the browser will launch a new kind of dominant design resulting in a new era of browser wars.
Scenario 2, BrowOS: Content and search providers are going to take over the control over the internet users behaviour (and its needs and requirements). This will result in a strong centralized internet experience. The decentralized computer operating system will disappear and probably be integrated into a browser concept.
Scenario 3, Ubiquitous Browsing: The web becomes semantic, and the browser consists of modules build on a standardized core. You can browse the web, as well as electrical appliances within and aroud your house.
Scenario 4, SandBoxMania: Personal Computing in 2019 will be driven by the Virtual Machine sandbox. This change the entire structure of software production as we know it today. Browsing and especially browser development will be totally different. Also a lot more visually oriented.
Comments Presentation(8'th of May 2009)
Comments were given by a panel of top-managers selected by Daniel Erasmus, CEO of DTN
Mr.Canter:
- All scenarios will exist
- Input devices will change radically but not within 10 years, the timespan will more likely be within the next 20 years.
- What baby steps should be taken to get to the scenarios mentioned?
CEO Panel:
- What is the acceptance rate from the millenials when it comes to new browser technology?
References
Ted Nelson: ZigZag Structures http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEj9vqVvHPc
Ted Nelson: Xanadu Spaces http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=En_2T7KH6RA
Marc Canter's blog: http://marc.blogs.it/