The future of mobility

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Team members

  • René de Groot
  • Mark Duivesteijn
  • Stefan Guijt
  • Sander van der Zon

Cheat Sheet:

Edge cities

What are edge cities?
How big are edge cities?
How many people live in an Edge City?
How is the transportation to and in Edge Cities?
What impact have edge cities on the transportation/environment/etc?
Will there be more edge cities in the future?


How much and what kind of companies are using teleworking?
How many people are working from home or another location then the main office?
Are people bound to working places? (IT/hospitals/etc)
Where are they located/What size has the company/what sector are they in?
What is the impact on traffic jams?
What is the impact on the environment?
What is the impact of programs like skype and webbex on teleworking?
What are the cost/benefits for the employee?
What are the cost/benefits for the company?
Are companies or the government supporting this way of working? and Why/not?


What future technologies are being developed?
What are the current technologies being used?
What happens if the fuel burns out? Then what?
Batteries? Life? Coverage? Charge time/stations? Costs? saving environment?acceptance?
Hybride? Life? Coverage? Charge time/stations? Costs? saving environment?acceptance?
What about hydrogen? Life? Coverage? Fuel stations? Costs? saving environment? acceptance?

General questions

Who are traveling?
How do people travel?
Why do people travel?
Would public transportation still be available in 10 to 15 years?
How and how much does the government try to encourage the public transportation?
How and mow much do companies support public transportation?
How much cleaner is public transportation versus a car?
How many cars are there in the Netherlands?
How many roads are there? Length?
How is the mobility of the future affected by the credit crisis?

Driving Forces:

Working at home
Traffic jams
Exhausting Oil Supply
Traffic prices
Changing needs
Travelling salesmen problem
Upcoming Technological Changes
Upcoming Edge Cities
Environmental Changes

Systems Diagram:


"Old Scenarios:"

Future Transportation
Grow in teleworking
Exhausting Fossil Fuels and New Technology

The comments made by the CIO team:

There are 3 main issues why people want to be mobile:

  • Transport of Goods
  • Entertainment
  • Work

Explore deeper into the scenarios, there is no clear solution

Teleworking has also to deal with trust, employer -> employee, does the employee really the amount of work he says he does.

Explore also extreme things i.e. No more cheap ryanair like flights

Give scenarios in ways of the use of mobility. Set the amount of mobility for each scenario, so the key uncertainties become clear.

Revised Scenarios:

After discussing the comments made on our "previous" scenarios we changed our 4 scenarios into the following:

Figure 2: Future Scenarios

Radical change
Risk/change avoiding