Oil Production 2030

Team Members

• Mihai Andreoiu
• Michael Aouad
• Joost d'Hooghe
• Phil Poetter
• Shirley Yuen

Scenarios

Following are the 4 scenarios that have been developed for 'oil production 2030':

• 1) Business as usual

• 2) Successful Kopenhagen

• 3) Too little - too late

• 4) N@NO

New Driving Forces

• World population growth
  
• Open decentralized electricity networks
  
• Continental Protectionism‎
  
• Growth of developing markets
  
• OPEC's Role
  
• Remaining Oil Reserves
  
• Environmental Impact
  
• Global Warming
• Renewable sources of energy
• Coal Seam Gas
• Drilling Technology
• Increasing Efficiency in Energy Use
• Increase of International Cooperation in Energy Policy
• Proliferation of extremist / dictatorial regimes

Edited Driving Forces

• Shift to Alternative Energy Sources
  

• Fossil fuel consumption
  

• Energy crisis in Asia
  

• Increasing Mobility
  

Research Questions

• Will strong political and religious agendas reflect in 'oil politics'?

• Oil, as a strategic asset as well as an energy source. Will there be global political alliances between oil producing and non-producing countries?

• Has OPEC gotten its act together in order to tighten control on oil supplies?

• Will there be strong global government regulations regarding fossil fuel usage?

• How successfull have international agreements (e.g. Kyoto Protocol) been in decreasing energy use?

• How is the world economy developing?

• How is the economy in the emerging markets developing? are they going through the same industrailization process like developed countries?

• Are renewable energy sources economically viable?

• Will consumers demand green energy supply due to ongoing global warming?

• Will the growth of the population continue till 2030?

• Do oil (and gas) continue to be the major source of energy?

• Will the global energy consumption decrease due to improvements in more efficient use of energy?

• What are the chances of finding oil in not yet explored locations such as deep see regions?

• Will improvement in drilling technology increase the oil production?

• What are the alternative energy sources?

• Will changes in mobility change the use of energy?

Research Topics

• Oil Production
• Oil and Global Warming
• The Big Crew Change
• Peak Oil
• Efficiency in energy usage
• Energy Demand
• New Finds
• Geopolitics

Systems diagram

First draft systems diagram

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Second draft systems diagram

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Third draft using mind map

• File:Oil production system map1.pdf

Resources

• BP - Oil reserves / Statistics 2008
• Booz&co - The Upstream Survivors 2009
• European Central Bank - Assessing the factors behind oil price changes / Working Paper Series; Jan-2008
• Global oil reserves and fossil fuel consumption
• International Energy Agency - Oil Market Report
• Renewables Global Status Report 2009 update
• Shell Scenarios
• Schlumberger
• Schlumberger - Andrew Gould at Simmons & Company International European Investor Conference
• Schlumberger - Highlighting Heavy Oil
• Simmons & Company International - Do Fossil Fuels have a sustainable future?
• Simmons & Company International - Speeches and papers
• United Nations University - different scenarios and research on global warming and the global energy outlook till 2030
• International Energy Agency - oil production in 2030 outlook