Geopolitics

Power is moving upstream, from exploration to reserve holders. Still a lot of money to be made so pressure expected from NOCs to continue production

demand

- increasing demand for petroleum in developing nations, particularly China and India;[2] - In fact, 24% of the oil consumed in 2004 went to the United States alone, though by 2007 this had dropped to 21% of world oil consumed [2] - Consumption in the twentieth century has been abundantly pushed by automobile growth ; the 1985-2003 oil glut even fuelled the sales of low economy vehicles (SUVs) in OECD countries. In 2008,the economic crisis seems to have some impact on the sales of such vehicles ; still, the 2008 oilconsumption shows a small increase. The BRIC countries might also kick in, as China briefly was the first automobile market in december 2009 [2] - Kopenhagen round, Kyoto protocol . Developed countries are focussing on efficiency and alternatives. Todays biggest demand areas (US, Europe, Japan) are frontrunners in deploying test areas for e.g. electrical cars. Preparing themselves to be less dependant of oil. - China is “buying” Africa, not minding social issues

supply

- The US is accused to “secretly” maintain its national reserves in order to fuel its economy in case of global shortage [6]. - Also more and more fields are found close to the US off the Mexican coasts.[10] - STILL, THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS EMERGED AS A MAJOR AREA OF INTEREST FOR THE WESTERN OIL COMPANIES THAT HAVE BEEN LOCKED OUT OF MANY OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST UNTAPPED RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND RUSSIA.[10]

inbalance in supply and demand

2030 Geopolitical Scenarios

1. All countries work together to battle the environmental effects. Investments are made in common agreement, optimised to minimize the environmental impact.

2. All countries are going into a protectionist state, making 1-on-1 agreements based on political/cultural/religious alignment. Wars are increasing in number. No alternative energies are developed. Some developed countries are being starved from oil, resulting in declining wealth.

3. The developed countries have switched to alternative energies to counter global warming. Western Europe and the US have completely switched to electrical cars. The oil reserves are used to fuel cars in developing countries such as Africa and India.

Sources

[1] http://www.responsiblenergy.org/oil.asp
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum
[3] Shell energy scenarios 2050
[4] http://www.energybulletin.net/node/20140
[5] http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59991
[6] http://www.rense.com/general70/doro.htm
[7] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8233504.stm
[8] http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/09/24/a-good-year-for-oil-discoveries/
[9] http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2009/New-Oil-Discoveries-You-Should-Know-OXY-BP-PBR0914.aspx
[10] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125189057895179241.html
[11] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/business/energy-environment/24oil.html