4) N@NO

• Population: increase to 9 billion to 2030.
• Energy demand: steady increase, no spikes or fall; in line with population growth.
• Slow growth in alternate energy then a spike in 2015 with a break through technology based on low cost, high efficiency solar and hydrogen powered cars. Resulting increase of competition in the alternate space leads to a a rapid decline of prices. Alternative is for transportation meaning that internal combustion engines are being phased out. Reason for uptake is purely economics – alternatives are now cheaper to manufacture than combustions and cheaper to run.
• Global warming, gradual increase, after alternative technology breakthrough and uptake a slowing of warming.
• Oil production follows a slow increase to around 90 billion bbl/year until after the uptake of alternatives for transportation. After this there is a fall as oil remains only in use for minimal power generation and industrial – plastics, fertiliser, pharmaceutical. This is a result of falling demand rather than reserve depletion. By 2030 production is around 30 billion per year (down from 80 billion now). Less money ia spent in this sector as exploration and technology advancement is no longer required as the conventional reserves appear to be enough to satisfy demand for quite some time. The crew change problem ceases to exist as there is less demand for qualified and experienced personnel.

Timeline
2010: Global economy continues to remain sluggish. Oil price rises to around $85 per barrel. Exploration and production of conventional oil continues ala 2009. Demand and production of oil is gradually rising, expectations are that they will hit 2008 levels within a few years. Population continues to grow in Africa south-east Asia. The outcome of Copenhagen in 2008 was more indecision and commitment on most issues with the focus falling to financial regulation. Fuelled by the auto industry bailout governments independently provide funding for new technology R&D in the area of transportation, and venture capitalists also continue investment in these areas.
2015: A break through in high-efficiency and low cost solar cells occurs in the USA and around the same time a joint venture between a number of large auto makers produces a new method of using hydrogen to power vehicles. A number of new concept cars from various makers are shown at the Geneva motor show, showcasing a combination of solar and hydrogen to power vehicles. The idea of using the new solar tech on both the body paint and the windows of the cars will be going into production very soon while the hydrogen systems may take more time to get production ready. Oil production is currently at 90 million barrels per day.
2017: Solar paint and windows are now standard on all cars and some trucks, reducing oil consumption for transportation by 10% in the western world. It is possible to retrofit the technology to older cars for a low cost and subsidies in developed countries are increasing the roll out of this technology to older cars. A small number of cars from different manufacturers are available for sale with this technology and are becoming the latest Hollywood trend. These cars do not cost more than the equivalent combustion engine and the running costs are much lower. A number of countries in Europe are providing tax deductions on these vehicles in order to improve the uptake. German carmakers forecast a large increase in orders for these vehicles in the coming five years. Oil production has fallen below 80 million barrels per day.
2020: Oil production and demand is falling. Many oil majors heavily involved in renewable energy generation on the upstream and focusing on the re-fuelling of hydrogen cars on the downstream. This investment in the infrastructure to operate hydrogen powered vehicles has increased the uptake of these vehicles as running costs fall and availability increases. The use of oil in industrial operations and pharmaceuticals is still strong leaving the price steady while supply is reduced to meet the demand. National Oil Companies continue to control the supply of oil in a slowing market. It is economics rather than environmental concerns that are driving the uptake of new cars - the running costs and purchasing costs are just lower than traditional combustion cars. With the exception of China there is still a slower uptake of the hydrogen powered vehicles in developing countries, but the use of the solar technology in paint and glass is becoming much more popular. Current oil production is 65 million barrels per day.
2025: It is amazing to think that only 10 years ago the main means of ground transportation was with petrol and diesel engines. Almost all registered vehicles in Europe and the USA now run on non-oil based technology. Some European governments have even made it impossible to register petroleum cars. Many older cars were retrofitted with new technology for a low cost. China has also seen an explosion in non-petroleum vehicle uptake since prices plummeted and many developing countries are also seeing an increase in the uptake as cheaper cars and infrastructure become available. Oil is still used for air and ship transportation, but Rolls Royce’s in a joint venture with Airbus has recently unveiled a new engine that uses substantially less fuel. Oil production is at around 45 million barrels per day with most of the consumption being used for industrial and pharmaceutical. There is still some consumption for transportation and electricity though this is a fraction of what it ones was. For the first time in decades there speed of global warming has decreased.
2030: There are only a small number of auto manufactures still building traditional combustion engines, and these are mainly used in developing countries. Oil production seems to have levelled out at 30 million barrels per day. Global population just tips 9 billion people. May former oil majors are now energy majors with only a small amount of their profits generated from oil production and downstream activities. National Oil Companies continues to operate and produce the bulk of the current oil from conventional reserves.