Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015

To start our scenario process we shall look at the scope of the uncertainties, define our research questions and answer them for our next class on 26 May.

• aSSIST 2005 Group 1 Uncertainties
• aSSIST 2005 Group 2 Uncertainties
• aSSIST 2005 Group 3 Uncertainties
• aSSIST 2005 Group 4 Uncertainties

Note: A good source is also the CIA's conference on the future of North Korea done in 2001. the report is visible here

Driving Forces

Here we will list Driving Forces that are specific to the process to understand the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015+

Please remember to be specific and indicate movement (whether it is growing or declining). For Example:

 BAD - Anti-Americanism
 BETTER - Anti-Americanism in Korea
 BEST - Increase of Anti-Americanism in Korea

Please develop the Driving Forces not just list them. They comprise 35% of your grade as listed below.

Political

• The Korean War II due to Nuke issue - Group 2

• The Sino-U.S. rivalry in the northeast Asia after the cold war - Group 2

• Increasing influence of US polices on South Korea polices - Group 4

• Increasing importance of North Korea situation to South Korea - Group 4

• Increasing possibility of North Korea's open through Kaesung complex - Group 4

• Continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime - Group 1

• The nature of divided penninsula between North and South Korea - Group 1

• Historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition - Group 1

• Creation of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war - Group 1

• Increase in notion of pax-Americana - america's sole pre-eminence - Group 1

• Beijing Olympic - Turning point for China to become a super power country - Increasing influence on Korea peninsula - Group 3

• South Korea Sunshine policy - Group 3

• 6-Party-Talk ends up with good results soon - Group 3

• Disaccord between China and US - Group 3

• Devastated economics of North Korea - Group 3

• Instable Dictator Kim Jung Il - Group 3

Economic

• The rise of Chinese economy - Group 2

• Economic integration among Asian Countries - Group 2

• Korea depression -Group 2

• The US trade deficit will increase in the future- Group 2

• Korea, North Korea inter-Korea economic cooperation will increase in the future - Group 2

• More opening of South Korean economy to the world - Group 4

• increasing globalization of Korean economy- Group 1

• no source of oil in korea- Group 1

• Economic Alignment wiht North Korea - Group 3

• FTA between China, Japan and Korea - Group 3

Societal

• Increasing Women's rights in South Korea - Group 4

• South Korea society is moving toward a western style demographic population - Group 4

• Seoul's becoming of mega city - Group 1

• Decrease in Confucian value in South Korea - Group 1

Technological

• Increase in availability of cheap broadband Internet in South Korea - Group 1

Environmental

• Shortage of natural resources in this world - Group 2

• shortage of land in korean penninsula - Group 1

Scenarios

Here is our scenarios.

Korea Depression - Group 2

6 Party talk was successful. - Group 4

New beginning- Group 3

North Korea's Collapse and the U.S.-China conflct - Group 1

As a reference you can look at example uncertainties,research questions, driving forces and scenarios developed on a WIKI:

LIACS Scenarios 2005

Leiden University ICT in Business Post Graduate course scenarios.

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