The Future of Software Development 2010

Welcome to the Wiki page of "The Future of Software Development". Not surprisingly, we’re researching the future of software development. Anyone will agree that software development in general is going to change — and that it has to, to keep up with technical opportunities and business requirements. But how? And what will be the consequences? One of the main topics will be Open Source software, and we’re looking at business issues, as well as technical and organizational ones.

(Back to LIACS ICT in Business 2005)

The Team:

• Jurjen Borst
• Jelmer Cormont
• Harro van Doorn
• Glenn van der Meijden
• Sanjay Ramautar

Driving Forces

• Dutch government stimulates Open Source software
• Decreasing attention for software development
• Community Feeling
• Programming standards
• Products are Turned Into Services
• The Rise of the Long Tail
• Easing restrictions in China
• The war on Spy- and Ad ware
• The Money influence on software development
• The Innovative aspect of open software

Research Problems:

Statistics (Sanjay)

• What is the financial status of open- and closed source?
• What is the usage of open- and closed source? (Percentage)
• What are the goals of contributing to open source? (Anti MS, what are the *driving forces?)
• Who are the players and what is their share in this? (Companies, developers, users)

People, Quality, Management, Organization (Jurjen)

• How is the structure in a “messy” free community?
• How is the quality assured?
• How is the expertise regarding the complex ICT infrastructure?
• What are the different cultural priorities? (Not reinventing the wheel over and over again)
• How is software logistic distributed?

Technical aspects (Glenn)

• Which organizations are/will be influential in software development?
• What are the expected models/standards?
• What are the current standards and what will be the future standards?
• Will there ever be an universal open source standard/

Money (Jelmer)

• What is the current business model of closed source software?
• What is the current business model of open source software?
• How are open source developers rewarded?
• What is the relation between open source and licensing?
• What impact will piracy have?
• How will open source be profitable? (Donation/ commercial usage)

Future (Harro)

• Influence MS vs. open source? And vice versa.
• What will be the impact on an average scale?

Research Phase 2:

Research Sources and Ideas (Jurjen and Harro)

Below are some research problems we felt we needed to look into some more, after creating the system's diagram:

• Software Patents
• Speed and costs of Software Development
• Hardware Platform Changes
• More statistics

System's Diagrams:

See all diagrams:

Software Development: Systems Diagrams

Scenarios:

A diagram that shows the idea behind our scenarios:

Scenario is based on chosen key alternatives as;

• Influence of America that owns 2/3 of world market of Dollars,
• Government regulations Development costs
• Technologic innovation
• Hardware platforms

And mega trends as;

• Increasing individualism (having a increasing effect on internet usage)

• Bangalore for Sure
• Back in the Saddle
• The Big Three
• The Da Vinci Code

Note: We do not expect that one scenario in particular will take place. Trends and counter trends are both true. Essence: talk and think to predict environment as precise as possible.

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