The Future of Wireless Broadband in 2010

GROUP COMPOSITION

We are HSE-MBA students in Korea. Our Group comprises of:

• Chan Gun Jeon
• Hong-Kyu Ryu
• Dong-Sik Chae

INTRODUCTION

WHAT IS WIBRO?

Developed in South Korea, WiBro (Wireless Broadband) is the newest variety of mobile wireless broadband access. WiBro is based on the same IEEE 802.16 standard as WiMax, but is designed to maintain connectivity on the go, tracking a receiver at speeds of up to 37 miles per hour (60 km/h). WiMax is the current standard in the United States, offering wireless Internet connectivity to mobile users at fixed ranges of up to 31 miles (50 km) from the transmitting base. However, WiMax is not designed to be used while the receiver is in motion. WiBro can be thought of "mobile WiMax," though the technology and its exact specifications will change as it undergoes refinements throughout its preliminary stages.

Korean-based fixed-line-operators KT, SK Telecom and Hanaro Telecom were awarded licenses by the South Korean government to provide WiBro commercially. According to Asia Media News Daily, the Korean Times reported a glitch in the initial excitement of WiBro, as published 31 August 2005. Hanaro Telecom gave up its license for WiBro after concerns that the considerable investment required would not see a return, while SK Telecom was also said to be hanging back. Only KT remained enthusiastically committed in the push to make WiBro a reality. Meanwhile Samsung has shown great interest in providing devices with WiBro capability.

WiBro is expected to be widely deployed in South Korea by the middle of 2006. As it may become the 4G (4th Generation) wireless standard, the global market will be watching. WiBro will operate in the 2.3 gigahertz band and is interoperable with WiMax.

South Korea is one of the most connected nations in the world. Broadband Internet access is widespread via DSL, cable and WiFi. South Korea also led the world market in quickly commercializing 3G (3rd Generation) cellular services like CDMA2000, a faster version of the Code Division Multiple Access network. Like the United States, South Korea is one of the few nations to use the cellular CDMA network more prominently than the more widespread GSM (Global System for Mobile communications). With its great enthusiasm for wireless technology, Korea promises to provide a solid testing ground for WiBro. (From 'http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-wibro.htm')

WIBRO SERVICE

WiBro (Wireless Broadband) is a service that provides high-speed broadband communications in the mobile environment, anytime anywhere. WiBro is based on Mobile WiMAX technology, which is based on IEEE 802.16e TDD OFDMA standards. In February 2002, the Korean government allocated 100 MHZ of frequency spectrum in the 2.3GHz bandwidth. WiBro offers an aggregate data throughput of 20 to 30 Mbps from base stations with a cellsite radius of 1 km~5 km. Samsung and Korea Telecom showed the fully expanded coverage of WiBro services at the APEC 2005 Summit in Busan, South Korea (November 15~21, 2005).

And KT and SKTelecom had started their commercial services in serveral areas of Seoul at last 30th June. 2006 with PCMICA type terminal.(http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200511/kt2005111418171711880.htm)

Analysis of Wibro Industry & Competitions with existing services based on Porter's 5 Forces Model

- on-going

• Entry Barriers

• Determinants of Supplier Power

• Determinants of Buyer Power

• Rivalry Determinants

• Determinants of Substitution Threats

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Technology

1. When will IEEE Standardizatoin be finalized for the Global Service Providers?

2. What is the superiorities comparing with other Technologies; WCDMA, WiMAX, WiFi, CDMA Ev-DO?

3. When will the Roaming with other 802.16e profiles available? Especially WiMAX?

4. Will Intel accept Wibro Profile in WiMAX chipset?

5. Is the Mobility(60km/h) enough?

6. Is the Security perfect?

7. Will it be possible the Time-to-Market Development?

8. What is the next from Wibro? (the Evolution of Wibro)

Industry

9. What kinds of Business Models(Service Package) will be possible?

10. What price will be presented?

11. What kinds of Terminal will be available?

12. What is/will be Telecom Companies's Canibalization Strategies?

13. How much CAPEX will be needed/invested for national-wide coverage?

14. How much OPEX will be needed?

15. What about PDA and NotePC business?

Society

16. How mature is Korean/Global IT Environment?

17. How fast will Wibro be spreaded?

18. What kind of killer services will motivate people? / Do the killer services of Wibro exist already?

Government

19. When is the schedule of VoIP, IPTV and Convergence of Telecom & Broadcasting Service for Wibro service expansion?

20. How strongly will MIC (Korean Ministry of Information & Telecommunication) drive Wibro?

Driving Forces

 David; To analize the interrelations between DFs, I believe we need to discuss about some DFs. I will add some to the end of the DFs. Please check these and let's talk about.
 David; I'm checking the enablers & inhibitors of our Scenario (the future of Wirless Broadband in 2010) and 'the future of WiFi...' to analyze the interrelations. Let's develop the draft scenario map with those and check & merge each others into the group work. Thanks a lot. 

Chan-Gun;I agree with you...I checked your comment in the societal driving forces area.
I think they would be better to delete or revise. So I will rework them.    
Please let me know about your opinion. 

Dongsik;I deleted unrelated DFs, you mentioned them. And added three DFs.
 The charging method will work as positive or negative depending on time.
 The first provider KT want to charge on conntection time or the amount of data packets to get profit.
 But if it levy fees based on usage, the users increase slowly. That means failure.
 The next way is to change price structure after growth.
 However, the problem will arise when it change price structure in the future.

 If IPTV is not allowed in near future, the WIBRO will not grow. As VOD is served most wireless telco.
 And the VOD will be served using CDMA, HSDPA, etc.

 VoIP is also essential for WIBRO.

• Political Driving Forces
  • IPTV Adoption

• Economic Driving Forces
  • Usage-based Pricing of Internet
  • The supports from Mobile Terminal & PC companies
  • The time of DBDM(Dual-Band) or TBTM(Tri-Band) availability
  • The Support from terminal and PC companies
  • 3G(WCDMA, CDMA Ev-DO rev.A) Business

• Societal Driving Forces
  • Ubiquitous society
  • Digital Nomad
  • e-Community
  • Increasing Mobility

• Technological Driving Forces
  • Gaming Industry
  • Peer-to-Peer Technology
  • The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates
  • IPv6
  • VoIP
  • 802.16e, 802.20x Stnandardization

• Environmental Driving Forces
  • E-paper solution instead of the paper work

DEVELOPING SCENARIOS

 David; I uploaded the draft Scenario plan, Mr. Chae, please give me your feedback. Thanks in advance. 

Chan-gun; Good job. I think it is almost perfect...:) Thanks a lot.
I think we need a little bit revision. The developing senario seems to be 
focused on technological pointview. If driving forces as we developed was added a little, 
the senario would be better. For example, we may add societal driving forces in customer side.
what do you think about that?

 David; Thank you. And I agree with you, 100%. Let't add more DF on below chart. I wonder if we have to prepare the scenario (ex, Best, Mid, Worst cases...like) before tomorrow class. Do you have any idea?

 Dongsik; Thank you for your goodness. I will give feedback at next morning, if I have. :-).

SCENARIOS for the Future of Wireless Broadband in 2010

David; Please explain the scenario #1 along with the time line. I will upload the #2 & 3 in today, too.

Scenario #1.

Scenario #2.

Scenario #3.