Difference between revisions of "Oil Production 2030"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Line 17: Line 17:


*[[2) Change of Guards]]
*[[2) Change of Guards]]
The world characterized by the "Change of Guards" is at a turning point.
Sequel to previous forums in Kyoto and Copenhagen, multi-lateral engagements at the political scene unfold and have a lasting impact. Environmental pressures is going hand in hand with an increasingly stiffening geopolitical landscape. Discussions on key issues - mainly related to global warming and its arguably strong correlation to CO2 emissions by fossil fuels - is fierce, but constructive. It becomes increasingly clear that a strong mandate and commitment is required to move forward. As a result far-reaching regulations with binding agreements are put in place, paving the way for a joint effort of the G20.


The world characterized by the "Change of Guards" is at a turning point. Sequel to previous forums in Kyoto and Copenhagen, multi-lateral engagements at the political scene unfold and have a lasting impact. Environmental pressures is going hand in hand with an increasingly stiffening geopolitical landscape. Discussions on key issues - mainly related to global warming and its arguably strong correlation to CO2 emissions by fossil fuels - is fierce, but constructive. It becomes increasingly clear that a strong mandate and commitment is required to move forward. As a result far-reaching regulations with binding agreements are put in place, paving the way for a joint effort of the G20.
This comes at a time, where the world continues its economic growth, while population growth (at 0.8% annually) is leveling off sooner than anticipated, leading to a world population just shy of 8 billion in 2030; +17% compared to 2010 levels. Still, total global energy demand increases by twice as much in line with economic development in populous emerging markets.
This comes at a time, where the world continues its economic growth, while population growth (at 0.8% annually) is leveling off sooner than anticipated, leading to a world population just shy of 8 billion in 2030; +17% compared to 2010 levels. Still, total global energy demand increases by twice as much in line with economic development in populous emerging markets.
Increased efforts at R&D level leads to energy efficiency gains quickly outstripping increases in global energy demand. Strong governmental support is reflected by putting in place the required infrastructure for large-scale alternative energy coverage and required production capacities.
Increased efforts at R&D level leads to energy efficiency gains quickly outstripping increases in global energy demand. Strong governmental support is reflected by putting in place the required infrastructure for large-scale alternative energy coverage and required production capacities.
Oil peak occurred a few years just before the turn of the decade. In 2015, ongoing discussion on reserve figures leads to a reevaluation after which OPEC countries have to adjust their figures significantly downward. From then on, oil reserves are depleting at an increasingly fast rate from a maximum of 1.3 trillion barrels and are expected to dwindle down to 100 billion barrels in 2030. While non-conventional oil resources are not economically viable to exploit, ongoing production cannot replace dwindling production rates. Globally, most wells are in their final stage of their life cycle.  
Oil peak occurred a few years just before the turn of the decade. In 2015, ongoing discussion on reserve figures leads to a reevaluation after which OPEC countries have to adjust their figures significantly downward. From then on, oil reserves are depleting at an increasingly fast rate from a maximum of 1.3 trillion barrels and are expected to dwindle down to 100 billion barrels in 2030. While non-conventional oil resources are not economically viable to exploit, ongoing production cannot replace dwindling production rates. Globally, most wells are in their final stage of their life cycle.  
With the financial competitiveness and increasing availability of alternative energy sources not only in advanced but also emerging markets, oil prices are starting a continuous decline. The much anticipated scarcity of skilled labor in the oil industry fails to appear as decreasing operating activity can be covered by the existing pool of people and productivity gains. Moreover, the Middle East and parts of Central and South America are becoming the main centers of oil production as the focus shifts towards easily accessible and cheap oil. The oil-age is coming to an end - the age of alternative energies is in full swing.
 
With the financial competitiveness and increasing availability of alternative energy sources not only in advanced but also emerging markets, oil prices are starting a continuous decline. The much anticipated scarcity of skilled labor in the oil industry fails to appear as decreasing operating activity can be covered by the existing pool of people and productivity gains. Moreover, the Middle East and parts of Central and South America are becoming the main centers of oil production as the focus shifts towards easily accessible and cheap oil.  
 
The oil-age is coming to an end - the age of alternative energies is in full swing.




Revision as of 17:27, 7 October 2009

Team Members

  • Mihai Andreoiu
  • Michael Aouad
  • Joost d'Hooghe
  • Phil Poetter
  • Shirley Yuen


Scenarios

Following are the 4 scenarios that have been developed for 'oil production 2030':

The world characterized by the "Change of Guards" is at a turning point. Sequel to previous forums in Kyoto and Copenhagen, multi-lateral engagements at the political scene unfold and have a lasting impact. Environmental pressures is going hand in hand with an increasingly stiffening geopolitical landscape. Discussions on key issues - mainly related to global warming and its arguably strong correlation to CO2 emissions by fossil fuels - is fierce, but constructive. It becomes increasingly clear that a strong mandate and commitment is required to move forward. As a result far-reaching regulations with binding agreements are put in place, paving the way for a joint effort of the G20.

This comes at a time, where the world continues its economic growth, while population growth (at 0.8% annually) is leveling off sooner than anticipated, leading to a world population just shy of 8 billion in 2030; +17% compared to 2010 levels. Still, total global energy demand increases by twice as much in line with economic development in populous emerging markets.

Increased efforts at R&D level leads to energy efficiency gains quickly outstripping increases in global energy demand. Strong governmental support is reflected by putting in place the required infrastructure for large-scale alternative energy coverage and required production capacities.

Oil peak occurred a few years just before the turn of the decade. In 2015, ongoing discussion on reserve figures leads to a reevaluation after which OPEC countries have to adjust their figures significantly downward. From then on, oil reserves are depleting at an increasingly fast rate from a maximum of 1.3 trillion barrels and are expected to dwindle down to 100 billion barrels in 2030. While non-conventional oil resources are not economically viable to exploit, ongoing production cannot replace dwindling production rates. Globally, most wells are in their final stage of their life cycle.

With the financial competitiveness and increasing availability of alternative energy sources not only in advanced but also emerging markets, oil prices are starting a continuous decline. The much anticipated scarcity of skilled labor in the oil industry fails to appear as decreasing operating activity can be covered by the existing pool of people and productivity gains. Moreover, the Middle East and parts of Central and South America are becoming the main centers of oil production as the focus shifts towards easily accessible and cheap oil.

The oil-age is coming to an end - the age of alternative energies is in full swing.


New Driving Forces

Edited Driving Forces


Research Questions

  • Will strong political and religious agendas reflect in 'oil politics'?
  • Oil, as a strategic asset as well as an energy source. Will there be global political alliances between oil producing and non-producing countries?
  • Has OPEC gotten its act together in order to tighten control on oil supplies?
  • Will there be strong global government regulations regarding fossil fuel usage?
  • How successfull have international agreements (e.g. Kyoto Protocol) been in decreasing energy use?
  • How is the world economy developing?
  • How is the economy in the emerging markets developing? are they going through the same industrailization process like developed countries?
  • Are renewable energy sources economically viable?
  • Will consumers demand green energy supply due to ongoing global warming?
  • Will the growth of the population continue till 2030?
  • Do oil (and gas) continue to be the major source of energy?
  • Will the global energy consumption decrease due to improvements in more efficient use of energy?
  • What are the chances of finding oil in not yet explored locations such as deep see regions?
  • Will improvement in drilling technology increase the oil production?
  • What are the alternative energy sources?
  • Will changes in mobility change the use of energy?

Research Topics


Systems diagram

First draft systems diagram

  • Systemsmap 1.JPG

Second draft systems diagram

  • Oil production systems map 2.JPG

Third draft using mind map

Resources

Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Oil_Production_2030&oldid=31219"