UMBA 2005

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Welcome to the UMBA 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic ICT and e-Business. The class is divided into sessions which are listed below.

Objects from the future UMBA 2005

The new electronic context

We explore how the Internet is changing and looks ahead at networks in the next 5 years.


Session 1: From Scenarios to Strategy: (24 May)

In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking.  Different scenario methodologies are introduced.  A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described. Case Investing in 3G Vodafone Future of M-Commerce Scenarios
During 1999/2000 at the crest of the dotcom wave UMTS licences were sold in Europe to potential Third Generation mobile telephone operators. The DTN developed scenarios for Vodafone looking 5 years into the future of mobile commerce. The case of these practical scenarios are explored to develop forward looking ICT strategy. These scenarios are now made public to be discussed and are informed by:

  • a multi-client set developed in 2002 Mobile Internet Scenarios in 2007, and
  • A Telenor sponsored 1st glance scenarios developed in 2004 looking at the future of 3rd generation telephony

Theory: Lessons to Develop and ICT strategy from Scenarios

  • Scenarios to strategy
  • Scenario and strategy mapping the organisational context
  • Scenario Process Comparisons
  • Real options theory and the scenario approach
  • Learning from Scenarios

Session 2: The second wave of the Internet (31 May)

There is a second wave emerging of Internet business driven by broadband, bottom up web technologies, desktop video, 3G telephony and visualisation.