The increasing relative shortage of oil

The increasing relative shortage of oil

[edit] 1.1 Draft Initialised by Maarten Post (EMBA05). [edit] 1.2 Description:
Peak oil is a predicted rise, followed by a sharp decline, in the world's supply of oil. Economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution have, in large part, been due to the use of oil and other fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are finite and will have to be replaced with alternative energy sources in the future. Although there appears to be consensus that this will happen, opinions differ as to when this will happen, how to replace fossil fuels with alternatives to oil, how difficult it would be to implement such changes, and whether they can happen before catastrophic climate change effects, destroy not only human lives and ecosystems, but oil infrastructure. There is wide consensus that oil production will reach a peak in the foreseeable future. Although there is huge discussion on the timing of this event and the availability of alternative sources of energy, the fact remains that the oil consumption is still rising and the latest discoveries of oil reservoirs were in the 1980s.

“Meanwhile global rates of oil discovery have been falling since the early 1960s, as has been confirmed by ExxonMobil. All of the 100 or so supergiant fields that are collectively responsible for about half of current world production were discovered in the 1940s, '50s, '60s, and '70s. No fields of comparable size have been found since then; instead, exploration during recent years has turned up only much smaller fields that deplete relatively quickly. The result is that today only one new barrel of oil is being discovered for every four that are extracted and used.” (http://www.museletter.com/archive/160.html dated 13 Dec 05).

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1.3 Enablers:
- global economy reliance on the usage and trading of oil. An oil-based economy doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty. - The lack of sufficient alternative energy sources currently available - Political power perceived from oil reserves

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1.4 Inhibitors: Environmental: Climate change and relevant conferences on renewable energy (Also look at http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Shift_to_Alternative_Energy_Sources Increasing oil prices

[edit] 1.5 Paradigms: The laws of the economy will ensure that higher oil prices assist in finding alternative sources of energy and drive energy technology. Oil is the easiest accessible and most effective energy factor available to humanity [edit] 1.6 Experts: TBD [edit] 1.7 Timing: 2015 – 2050 [edit] 1.8 Web Resources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implications_of_a_peak_oil
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20030701faessay15410/timothy-e-wirth-c-boyden-gray-john-d-podesta/the-future-of-energy-policy.html
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implications_of_a_peak_oil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change