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The impact of limited availability of natural energy resources on the growth of the global economy
development of alternative energy sources and availability of ‘old’ energy sources
From ScenarioThinking.org [edit] 1.17 Draft Initialised by Maarten Post (EMBA05). [edit] Description:
Peak oil is a predicted rise, followed by a sharp decline, in the world's supply of oil. Economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution have, in large part, been due to the use of oil and other fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are finite and will have to be replaced with alternative energy sources in the future. Although there appears to be consensus that this will happen, opinions differ as to when this will happen, how to replace fossil fuels with alternatives to oil, how difficult it would be to implement such changes, and whether they can happen before catastrophic climate change effects, destroy not only human lives and ecosystems, but oil infrastructure.
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1.18 Enablers: Factors enabling this driving force: -
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1.19 Inhibitors: TBD [edit] 1.20 Paradigms: The laws of the economy will ensure that higher oil prices assist in finding alternative sources of energy and drive energy technology. The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.
In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.
[edit] 1.21 Experts: Hubbert; [edit] 1.22 Timing: Between 2005 and 2015 [edit] 1.23 Web Resources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implications_of_a_peak_oil http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/