The Future of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies 2015

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to: navigation, search

At the Rotterdam School of Management MBA students NAMES have as part of their assignment for the course New Global Business Environment looked at the future of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies in 2015. To download their presentation in PDF please click here.


Introduction

It is not clear whether all the stakeholders in the broad health care system are willing to invest in changing the current system. The willingness will affect the way in which the system will change: collapse or smart adjustment.
It is not clear what new technologies will bring. Innovations could dramatically affect the way patients are treated and promote the shift from treating patients to curing patients and preventing illnesses in very new ways.

Scenarios

The Efficiency Game

A future with no big innovations, but a practical, efficiency-oriented strategy to improve the health care system.

New technologies like gene therapy do not fulfil expectations. The majority of therapies still comprises the treatment of symptoms. However, more and more illnesses are treatable, and illnesses that were fatal in the past become chronic diseases through effective medication.

Back in the Future

A future of little innovation and political stalemate inhibiting reform. Financial distress causes the collapse of the health care system.

EU governments show no willingness to change the Health Care system. New technologies like genetic therapy, implants and cloning fail by lousy trial results, lower research budgets resistance towards it by the public and government.

Techno Age

With revolutionary innovations in fields of prevention and a pragmatic political health care reform strategy.

Governments fail to control prices through national healthcare. Privatization and liberalization attempts fail. The low volume - high margin pharma industry begins to face more pressures from fields such as new generic competition, increasing socio-political price pressures and new drug and curing delivery systems. Programmable positional chemistry with the ability to fabricate nanocomponents will be the basis of a new powerful manufacturing technology.


To download the presentation in PDF please click here.