Sustainable Development & Global Economy at 2020

Introduction to Economies and Markets of 2010

In the mature western society, there is mainly low fertility and a continuing aging population. These trends will surely reform, work, family and personal life as well as social production. That might result in consumers with strong brand loyalty. Another trend with the maturation process of the internet is the growing ‘power’ of non state actors, or corporations. We see globalization—growing interconnectedness reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services, and people throughout the world as an overarching “mega-trend,” a force so ubiquitous that it will substantially shape all the other major trends in the world of 2020. But the future of globalization is not fixed; states and nonstate actors—including both private companies and NGOs—will struggle to shape its contours. Some aspects of globalization—such as the growing global interconnectedness stemming from the information technology (IT) revolution almost certainly will be irreversible. Yet it is also possible, although unlikely, that the process of globalization could be slowed or even stopped, just as the era of globalization in 1900-1950. Barring such a turn of events, the world economy is likely to continue growing impressively: by 2020, it is projected to be about 80 percent larger than it was in 2000, and average per capita income will be roughly 50 percent higher. Of course, there will be cyclical ups and downs and periodic financial or other crises, but this basic growth trajectory has powerful momentum behind it. Most countries around the world, both developed and developing, will benefit from gains in the world economy. By having the fastest-growing consumer markets, more firms becoming world-class multinationals, and greater S&T stature, Asia looks set to displace Western countries as the focus for international economic dynamism—provided Asia’s rapid economic growth continues.

Technological growth includes incremental developments, and disruptive technologies. By contrast, disruptive technologies are those where a new method replaces the previous technology and make it redundant, for example the replacement of horse drawn carriages by automobiles. Emerging technologies is a general term used to denote significant technological developments that in effect, broach new territory in some significant way in their field. Examples of currently emerging technologies include nanotechnology, biotechnology, cognitive science, robotics, and artificial intelligence. The general idea is that a business should focus on those areas of its operation which are critical to its success and where it has a competitive advantage. Other areas of its operation should be outsourced, typically using technology as the facilitator. In a developed economy, the critical success factors to a leading business are likely to be intellectual things such as brands, products specifications and technical capabilities. Many routine business functions (such as manufacturing and customer service desks) may be outsourced. Ashot Grigoryan believes that the “new economy” is a current Kondratiev wave which will end after a 50-year period in 2040’s. Its innovative basis includes Internet, nanotechnologies, telematica and bionica. Converging technologies are a related topic, signifying areas where different disciplines are converging and to an extent merging or developing broad links, towards a common direction. Thus as computers become more powerful, and media becomes digitized, computing and media are described as being converging technologies.

New Markets that will effect Enterprice IT:

Collective collaboration
Biotechnology
Digital Imaging
Augmented Reality
Biotechnology
Green Energy

Links

http://www.cisco.com/web/CA/pdf/Cisco_Foresight_2020_Full_Report.pdf http://www.scribd.com/doc/12731494/Trends-2008 http://www.emerging-markets.com/ http://www.bcg.com/impact_expertise/publications/files/Envisioning_an_Uncertain_Future_Jul_2008.pdf http://www.metropolismag.com/story/20060320/smart-city-2020 http://2020science.org/category/emerging-technology/ http://www.nature.com/nature/focus/futurecomputing/index.html http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090403/full/news.2009.236.html http://www.gizmag.com/ http://www.technologyreview.com/special/emerging/ http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/488/1036488/mit-names-top-emerging http://news.thomasnet.com/IMT/archives/2006/07/redefining_engineering_for_year_2020_national_academy_of.html