Migration of population

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Movements of individuals around the globe are likely to increase in the next decades in both developed and developing countries. Forced migration of population is expected to rise with the increase of natural disasters and effects of climate change. This will add to on-going voluntary migrations of skilled individuals taking advantage of the globalization, looking for better job opportunies or better lifestyle.

"There are close to 40 million people displaced by war and conflict in the world today. 26 million of these are displaced within their own country. In the future, most of the forced migration will continue to take place internally and regionally. Developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia, will continue to have to receive the majority of displaced populations." (NRC Secretary General Elisabeth Rasmusson, Norwegian refugee council report, 2008).

Across Africa desertification and a consequent decline in agricultural output is displacing increasingly large amounts of people. An estimated 10 million people within Africa have been forced to migrate over the last two decades due to desertification or environmental degradation.("No place like home - climate refugees" The Environmental Justice Foundation, 2009)

Enablers

- Climate change increases people displacement (sea level rise, flood, drought, tsunamis, hurricanes...)
- Increase in political unstability, wars or/and dictatorships over the world
- Lack of economic opportunities, poverty
- Attraction of brains by developed countries
- Existing infrastructures in cities facilitate reception and integration of displaced population
- globalization
- industrial accidents (ex: Chernobyl, Bhopal)
- development projects (deforestation, dam building etc...)

Inhibitors

- Success in negotiations in climate change leading to GHG and C02 emission reduction
- Efficient public aid and government interventions to rehouse displaced population
- Good economy and enrichment of developing countries
- Development of local infrastructures for sustainable re-housing of people
- Local economic development boom

Sources

Forced migration: Future flood of refugees, NRC, http://www.nrcfadder.no/arch/img.aspx?file_id=9904602