LIACS 2005 Class Process

Class Process

Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking

In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking.  Different scenario methodologies are introduced.  In the workshop part of the process a practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen and preliminary scenarios are developed.  Representatives from industry are invited to show how scenarios have been used to transform (or not) strategic thinking in their organisations.

Session 1 (Content) Introduction Strategies for Dealing with Complexity Scenario Thinking - A creative process - A multidisciplinary process - An exploratory process - A process with results - An ongoing process Scenario thinking in practice

Session 2 (Workshop) ·       Defining the Focal Issue ·       Finding Driving Forces ·       Deciding on Uncertainty/ Pre-determinants ·       Building First generation Scenarios

Block 2 Introduction to Systems Thinking

Systemic thinking, developed to explain ecosystems in 1950s, is an essential part of the scenario thinkers knapsack. This block introduces systems thinking, the underlying concepts of business simulation and the practice of creating systems models of the scenario space.  Several stories are used to demonstrate the awareness of systems thinking and how they can be used in the construction of scenarios.  The policy failure of Ronald Reagan’s “War on Drugs” during the 1980s is modelled using systems thinking.  During the workshop session the participants will develop systems models for their scenario focal issue.

Session 3 (Content) Introduction to business simulation Introduction systems thinking Causal Modelling of complex situations Systems case: Ronald Reagan’s War on Drugs

Session 4 (Workshop) Systems and Assumptions Building systemic diagrams

Block 3 Building the final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy

This block explores the tie from scenarios to strategy.  Scenarios are a communication processes and work within an organisation the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people in the organisation.  This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.

Session 5 (Content & Workshop) Content: Narrative Structures Storytelling as a method of changing the organisational language

Workshop Deepening the scenario stories Finalising the scenarios

Session 6 (Content  & Presentation)

Scenarios to strategy Scenario and strategy mapping the organisational context Scenario Process Comparisons Real options theory and the scenario approach Learning from Scenarios Case Vodafone Scenarios European ICT  scenario thinking case