Difference between revisions of "Increasing Human Mobility"

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== '''Description:''' ==
''Social driving force of [[ The Future of Secondary Education in 2020]]''
== Description: ==


After 911, US administration’s attitude towards foreign policy and multilateralism has severely affected international relations. ‘War on terror’, conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, as well as the continued pursuit of narrow national and economic interests are distracting governments from the genuine threats that humanity faces .Thus, efforts to improve global security are inadequate. New leadership in the USA and UK in the coming years may bring new opportunity for progress on this problem.
When entering the 21st century, people are more and more capable of moving readily from place to place, and traveling and relocating frequently. The picture below which shows immigration situation in past years also predicts what will happen in the future.<br><br>
[[Image:Figure1.jpg]]
<br><br>
== Enablers: ==
<ul>
<li>Increasing integration of economies and societies around the world resulted from globalization.[1]</li>
<li>The advances of information and communication technology, especially wireless technology, which free people from restraints of their location, you can communicate anywhere anyway.[2]</li>
<li>Ground and air transportation allow people to travel around the world with safety, comfort and speed. [2]</li>
<li>World's rapid urbanization and motorization. [2]</li>
</ul>
<br>
== Inhibitors: ==
<ul>
<li>Rigid national boundaries and controls on migration</li>
<li>Cultural barriers [2] </li>
<li>Language barriers [2] </li>
</ul>
<br>


== '''Enablers:''' ==
== Paradigms: ==
 
The trend of increasing human mobility will not stop in the following 10 years, thus making sure young people who are involved in this kind of frequent relocation can get adequate education with high quality will promote the development of educational technology which can be wildly used in area such as distant-learning and on-line education community.
1. The adverse effects of climate change and global warming
<br><Br>
 
== Timing: ==
2. Competition for increasingly scarce resources, especially oil
<i>2010-2020</i><br>
 
The trend of international immigration into OECD countries and social urbanization continue and social network connectivity becomes an important factor in human mobility. In addition, more and more youth generation accept the idea of global freeman. And, refugee, amnesty and undocumented flows increase as the same time. All those factors increase future human mobility.
3. International Islamic terrorism
<br><Br>
 
== WEB Resources: ==
4. Increasing socio-economic divisions and the marginalization of the majority world cause tensions  such as West (Judeo-Christian) vs. Islam, China vs. Taiwan, North Korea vs. US, Poor nations (mainly in Africa) vs. wealthy nations, Local tribes and peoples vs. Western private companies using local resources, Russia vs. former Muslim republics
http://www.ccpr.ucla.edu/ccprwpseries/ccpr_033_06.pdf<br>
 
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increasing_Mobility
5.      Further spread of military technologies and weapons of mass destruction (Chemical, Biological, Atomic)
 
== '''Inhibitors''' ==
1.  Replace carbon-based sources with diversified local renewable energy sources; manage energy efficiency, resource recycling.
 
2.  Phase out of WMD worldwide.
 
3.  Adjust global systems of trade, aid and debt to reduce poverty.
 
4.  Use smarter counter-terrorism police operations against violent revolutionary groups and make dialogue with terrorist leaderships.
 
== '''Paradigms:''' ==
 
Competition for scarce sources such as oil, socio-economic divisions and the marginalization of the majority world are reasons causing insecurity. If governments can move beyond the current narrow national and economic interests, using the energy and resources currently devoted to anti-war into positive efforts to promote peace and security. A more peaceful and secure global order can be established.
 
== '''Experts:''' ==
 
See sources
 
== '''Timing:''' ==
 
 
'''2008-'''      New leadership in USA and UK
 
'''2008-2012-'''  New governments change foreign policy and attitudes towards climate change and energy etc problems.Reform of regional organizations and the United Nations help governments move beyond the current narrow national and economic interests.
 
'''2015-2020-'''  Technology improves and new energy without CO2 emission gradually replaces traditional energy.
 
== '''Reference:''' ==
 
http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefings/globalthreats.pdf
 
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism

Latest revision as of 19:43, 19 March 2007

Social driving force of The Future of Secondary Education in 2020

Description:

When entering the 21st century, people are more and more capable of moving readily from place to place, and traveling and relocating frequently. The picture below which shows immigration situation in past years also predicts what will happen in the future.

Figure1.jpg

Enablers:

  • Increasing integration of economies and societies around the world resulted from globalization.[1]
  • The advances of information and communication technology, especially wireless technology, which free people from restraints of their location, you can communicate anywhere anyway.[2]
  • Ground and air transportation allow people to travel around the world with safety, comfort and speed. [2]
  • World's rapid urbanization and motorization. [2]


Inhibitors:

  • Rigid national boundaries and controls on migration
  • Cultural barriers [2]
  • Language barriers [2]


Paradigms:

The trend of increasing human mobility will not stop in the following 10 years, thus making sure young people who are involved in this kind of frequent relocation can get adequate education with high quality will promote the development of educational technology which can be wildly used in area such as distant-learning and on-line education community.

Timing:

2010-2020
The trend of international immigration into OECD countries and social urbanization continue and social network connectivity becomes an important factor in human mobility. In addition, more and more youth generation accept the idea of global freeman. And, refugee, amnesty and undocumented flows increase as the same time. All those factors increase future human mobility.

WEB Resources:

http://www.ccpr.ucla.edu/ccprwpseries/ccpr_033_06.pdf
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increasing_Mobility

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