Difference between revisions of "Increasing Human Mobility"

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== '''Enablers:''' ==
== '''Enablers:''' ==


1. The adverse effects of climate change and global warming
1.  Increasing integration of economies and societies around the world resulted from globalization.[1]


2. Competition for increasingly scarce resources, especially oil
2.  The advances of information and communication technology, especially wireless technology, which free people from restraints of their location, you can communicate anywhere anyway.[2]


3. International Islamic terrorism
3.    Ground and air transportation allow people to travel around the world with safety, comfort and speed. [2]


4. Increasing socio-economic divisions and the marginalization of the majority world cause tensions  such as West (Judeo-Christian) vs. Islam, China vs. Taiwan, North Korea vs. US, Poor nations (mainly in Africa) vs. wealthy nations, Local tribes and peoples vs. Western private companies using local resources, Russia vs. former Muslim republics
4.  World's rapid urbanization and motorization. [2]
 
5.      Further spread of military technologies and weapons of mass destruction (Chemical, Biological, Atomic)


== '''Inhibitors''' ==
== '''Inhibitors''' ==

Revision as of 18:54, 5 March 2007

Description:

When entering the 21st century, people are more and more capable of moving readily from place to place, and traveling and relocating frequently. The picture below which shows immigration situation in past years also predicts what will happen in the future.Example.jpg

Enablers:

1.  Increasing integration of economies and societies around the world resulted from globalization.[1]

2.  The advances of information and communication technology, especially wireless technology, which free people from restraints of their location, you can communicate anywhere anyway.[2]

3.  Ground and air transportation allow people to travel around the world with safety, comfort and speed. [2]

4.  World's rapid urbanization and motorization. [2]

Inhibitors

1. Replace carbon-based sources with diversified local renewable energy sources; manage energy efficiency, resource recycling.

2. Phase out of WMD worldwide.

3. Adjust global systems of trade, aid and debt to reduce poverty.

4. Use smarter counter-terrorism police operations against violent revolutionary groups and make dialogue with terrorist leaderships.

Paradigms:

Competition for scarce sources such as oil, socio-economic divisions and the marginalization of the majority world are reasons causing insecurity. If governments can move beyond the current narrow national and economic interests, using the energy and resources currently devoted to anti-war into positive efforts to promote peace and security. A more peaceful and secure global order can be established.

Experts:

See sources

Timing:

2008- New leadership in USA and UK

2008-2012- New governments change foreign policy and attitudes towards climate change and energy etc problems.Reform of regional organizations and the United Nations help governments move beyond the current narrow national and economic interests.

2015-2020- Technology improves and new energy without CO2 emission gradually replaces traditional energy.

Reference:

http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefings/globalthreats.pdf

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism