Global Terrorism

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Increasing threat of (Global) Terrorism

Description:

The internet provides a global network utilizing a medium from which it is difficult to track specific data. This tool has been embraced by terrorists around the globe in order to coordinate their activities, transfer funds and maintain communication. While in past years it was difficult for intelligence services to monitor SigInt and CommInt data, now the task is virtually impossible. Making IPs and using virtual servers and ports makes tracking of terrorism extremely difficult. As a consequence it can be expected that civilization has to battle a growing number of terrorist organizations and acts of mass destruction.
Furthermore, in recent years terrorism has started to become an autonomous activity, organized by locally active cells and networks rather than orchestrated in an international context: this results in a more complex and diffuse terror threat.
Also, financing of these local cells takes place by means of local money, which is generated from criminal activities - the resulting interaction between criminality and terrorism increases the complexity and size of the terrorist threat.

Enablers:

- Internet penetration: infrastructure, lower costs - Computer litracy - Growing volume of internet traffic - Online support for various languages and dialects - Growing oppositions to regimes: 1. West (Judeo-Christian) vs. Islam 2. China vs. Taiwan 3. North Korea vs. Japan and US 4. Poor nations (mainly in Africa) vs. wealthy nations 5. Local tribes and peoples vs. Western private companies using local resources 6. Russia vs. former Muslim republics - Support of local terrorist groups by "rogue" goverments - Proliferation of knowledge regarding weapons of mass destruction (Chemical, Biological, Atomic) - Use of complexed encription for data (complete encryption or linguistic codes)

Inhibitors:

- Coorporation among governments, law enforcing agencies and global

 corporations to battle global terrorism

- Enhanced internet traffic surveilance - Changing to the Placatory Policy for terrorism in USA

 (eg : Democrtic Party wins the election)

Paradigms:

Insurgent forces use the Western-based technology to bring to its demise. As such forces receive support from governments they multiply their power. Communication is vital for the execution of acts against a foreign government. The Internet supports this space and anonimity, use of foreign languages (or even invented languages), the speed and the proliferation of knowledge required for terrorism makes such terrorist threats in the strategic and tactical level a lot easier.

Experts:

N/A

Timing:

2005 - Iran and North Korea atomic plans are completed. CIA announces it cannot fight anti-US terrorism effectively. 2006 - Tensions in Europe between Muslims minorities reach public disorder. Governments are forced by public demand to examine all Muslims on a case by case. Muslims who are deemed dangerous are doprted to their home country por arrested. 2007 - Terrorists threats make international travel diffucult. Recurrent bombins end up requiring to put guards at all commercial establishments, malls and companies. Security agencies are booming. 2008 - First atomic bomb is used in Africa on a small scale in Nigeria 2009 - China attacks Taiwan and the island surrenders. US, EU and Japan are powerless. 2010 - US attempt to over throw the Iranian government fails. Alliance of Anti-West governments is formed and includes China, Norh Korea, Muslim countries and Pakistan. 2011 - US and EU consider disconnecting all servers outside the "safe zone".

Web Resources:

http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr111.html[1]

http://www.academicinfo.net/terrorism.html [2]