Future of Copyright
Introduction
The concept of copyright is not new. It is an old concept that continues to be applied to multiple products within multiple industries within our modern society. As advances in technology have transpired, so have the economic and political ideologies that seek to protect, apply and enforce the concept of copyright.
Since the concept of copyright is so versatile, the implications of the term have changed over time. So much so, that common notions of what constitutes copyright is highly conditional on the individual. In fact, the entire concept of copyright has different meanings to different individuals.
Our intention with this Scenario Planning exercise is to define copyright in broad terms, and then specifically illustrate how the Internet and World Wide Web have changed the implications of copyright within the media industries: audio, video, and publishing. We will examine the technological, economic and political driving forces that facilitate or hinder these changes, and also the legal and social implications for society.
. Great research! I llike that you have taken the time to understand and think through the issues. GOOD STUFF! . The systems diagram have organised the forces in terms of hierarchies, and not systems. Remember that issues link with each other irrespective of how they are best organised. Politcal issues drive social issues, and economic issues etc, Look at the systems diagra of the the MashUp group or the group working on the creation of software. . great work, good luck, look forward to seeing you next week!
Group members
We are presently MBA candidates at the Universiteit van Amsterdam Business School. Our group consists of Ching-Heng Wu, Hui-Fei Yen, and Vijay Kalappa.
Research questions
2. What is Intellectual Property?
6. what behavior of users would cause the copyright infringement of software?
7. What is the effect of copyright infringement on digital culture?
8. What is the DRM and what is its aim?
9. Is there any DRM implementations? Give examples
10.How long would Copyright last ?
11. Is there anyone to oppose the copyright? What are their arguments?
16. Is it possible to preserve or protect copyright by using technology skill?
17. What is the original of copyright?
Driving forces of copyright
Description:
We have identified four major driving forces: technological, economic, legal and political. In our present society, the rapid pace of technological development means that it is the most obvious driving force for copyright issues. This subsequently prompts economic driving forces to come into play. The economic implications of the technology will ascertain whether the technology endangers or liberates copyright issues. It may be evidenced through a reduction in product marketshare or sales, or may even call for a redesign in existing business models. Legal driving forces become a major issue when financial and economic questions are raised regarding copyright. In theory, the law is implemented to protect firms and individuals from financial and intellectual property losses. However, the interpretation of this law is varied and contingent on many factors: nature of the copyright issue, medium, parties involved and importantly, although indirectly, any political driving forces. Protection of a nation's intellectual property - be it artistic, technological or simply procedural - is a serious issue. It applies equally to individuals or corporations alike.
Driving forces analysis:
Copyright: Technological Driving Forces
Copyright: Economic Driving Forces
Copyright: Legal Driving Forces
Copyright: Political Driving Forces
Systemetic diagram
Identify all players
Three different type of attitudes toward copyright
1.Support copyright for economic purposes: (Vijay)
2.Support copyright for ownership and not economics: (Ruby)
3.Support open resource platforms, no copyright needed: (Jo)
Scenarios
Scenario 1 Background: Free driving forces shape the future of copyright
“Anti-copyright” proponents would shape the future of copyright, below are the stuation would come up in theis sceanrio:
1. fast-growing IT technology :
As the IT technology is growing, more people utilize the internet to share their sources with each other, causing the commercial company to suit against the consumers and against the software companies that provide the share platform.
2. lawsuit failure :
More and more firm’s lawsuits fail because there is not a clear line between the two concepts (copyright, and free information), and also there are holes in the law.
3. strict law made, but fail :
The company would force the government to make a more stringent copyright law to punish the pirates and the software companies and the consumers who download the film, music, etc. illegally. However, the technology is growing faster than the speed at which the government can deal with the copyright infringement problem. Even though the government has strict laws, they can’t stop the user from downloading the data from the Internet. The Internet users and Software Company always have ways to escape from the Internet police’s investigation.
4. infraction construction :
The government also strengthens the telecommunication structure, such as “ fiber to the home, that increases the Internet speed. With the Internet going more and more public, people become more motivated to share and download resources from the Internet.
5. the death of pirates :
As more and more people can share and download resources from the Internet, they become less motivated to buy pirate products from illegal vendors. As a result, the pirate factories and pirate vendors would die out.
6. social movement :
In the society, the anti-copyright movement is getting support from the public. Their arguments are below: a). Copyright originated only in the last few decades. Creativity flourished well before copyright existed. b) While some are in favor of limited copyright terms, copyrights in many countries last for periods longer than a human lifetime. It is argued that even if a limited copyright period would be beneficial, these long copyright terms hold content back far longer than necessary. c) Many argue that copyright is inherently contrary to the ideals of free speech and expression, which are valued highly by free societies. d) Some companies abuse copyright privileges by suing or threatening to sue those who clearly are within their rights under fair use, but who cannot afford to defend themselves in court. e) Frequently, content creators do not hold their own copyrights, instead relinquishing them to publishers, producers, and the like, through contractual arrangements.
7. affect of education :
Through education, people are more willing to share what they have than before. So more creators don’t feel like copyright. The world is going to go a utopia.
8. business model change :
However, the commercial companies would face the severe economic situation because the market share deceases. Small ones would go bankruptcy. Big ones tried to lower the prices of their products, and to add extra values into their products to attract people to buy them. The commercial companies also change their ways of doing business.
Scenario 2 Background: Economic driving forces shape the future of copyright
Scenario 1: A future where economic driving forces shape the future of copyright
The rapid pace of technological development means that it has become one of the key drivers in shaping copyright issues. However, it is the economic implications of the technology that is the catalyst for ascertaining whether the technology endangers or liberates copyright issues. It may be evidenced through a reduction in product market share or sales, or may even call for a redesign in existing business models. Legal driving forces become a major issue when financial and economic questions are raised regarding copyright. In theory, the law is implemented to protect firms and individuals from financial and intellectual property losses. However, the interpretation of this law is varied and contingent on many factors, primarily the nature of the copyright violation,
In some instances, the increase in illegal P2P sharing of information – music, film and general “theft” of intellectual property from artists, creators and corporations alike has prompted a backlash from those parties and is at least partly responsible for an economic downturn due to a loss of revenues. Big media firms such as TimeWarner, Sony and Bertelsmann are threatening to take their case to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
In an effort to boost the economy, political driving forces adopt the copyright issue and the government becomes involved. Re-categorized as a “national” as opposed to purely economic issue, the government claims that the protection of a nation's intellectual property - be it artistic, technological or simply procedural - is paramount. Moreover, if citizens steal information from sources internally, they are stealing from their own. It becomes a major campaign issue for politicians around the world. Governments institute the following mandates with regard to information transfer:
1. Greater laws to prevent copyright theft
2. Strict enforcement of these laws – violators subjected to imprisonment
3. Legal systems amended to ensures greater financial rewards to creators of content
4. Media is given a greater platform to promote original content
5. New systems implemented to educate public on theft of software
Scenario 3 Background: An amalgamation of driving forces shape the future of copyright
There is a whole new world. The background is based on the following two assuptions.
Assumption1: Economic driven force failed
Companies can't catch the technology development and make the law immedietely to stop pirate products or illegal download. There is always a surprise on the new technology innovations. There is always time lag to lobby and force the government making the new law.
Moreover, this is an incredibly long-term war!! The companies not only invest a lot of money on making the new rules but also spend huge money conducting countless and endless law suits. Although at the begining, these coporations are considered to have good economic power. However, as their sales go dwon year by year and the profit margin decrease day by day, these companies are eventually running out of their energy and money to protect the copyright. So, they stop attacking others and become defend their standpoint. In the end, these companies are either surrender or totally disapear.
The Only few smart suvivers come into this senario 3......
Assumption2:
The free resource proponents don't go successful neither
Even they have great idea: everyone shares everything to each other, and the whole human being get benefits form it. However, this Utoperia is hard to implement and realize.
First, it is against the "human nature". Only some creators want to create without clarifying their ownership. Most creators still feel unhappy to see other people using thir work without remark where it come from. Moreover, it is this ownership drives creators' motivation to create more master piece.
In additional, creators need to make a living. They can creat their music or painting without charge high price or rewarding. They can create without coporate with big companies to publish it. However, At least they need to clarify their ownership, then they can perform it or directly sell it to maintain a basic living. Not everyone is amateur creators!
Moreover, seldom governments are willing or able to 100% support creators. There are much more capitalism countries than communism counties. The free-resource senario is more like a mission impposible.
The process to a whole new world: Amalgamation
1.Underground Age:
Like every thing happened so far. Copyright exist in most of countries. The companies are suffered from decreasing sales and profit, so they put effort to protect copyright by atacking the illegal vendors and illegal consummers. According to copyright law, its ileal to download music or movie by P2P without paying. However, while music company want to sue the websites or software company, It's time consuming and exhausted.
The pirate industries and vendors are still there, especially in most of developing countries. The internet download behaviors are more and more prevailing, regardless it is illegal. It's a world of mess. Most of the things are conducted and developmented underground.
2.Ambiguous age:
The characteristic of this process is a huge grey area. Everyone has different opinions about what is legal and what is illegal. It's not black and white world anymore. The NGO and anti-copyright proponents develope more theories to justify their standtpoint and query the exist of copyright. There are a lot of distputes, disagreement, and ambiguous standpoints. More and more new technology come to the markets and try to solve the problems. Ex: "itune" has a new function let people share the whole computer's music without download; "Youtube" share the MTV and vedio online. But all these new creation only let the concept of copyright more complex and hard to define.
Global government and NGO try to organize a WCO---World copyright Organization which is directlt under the United Nations' level. However, its very difficult to bring people with different opnions to talk together. Therefore, while WCO is helding in the formal building, the informal protest groups are helding another meeting otside that building.
3.Emerging new world:
It's a market decision world. Many commercial companies already died of their old business modle. Some commercial companies transform themselves to the whole new face which utilise the new technology and get profit from it. Many interesting is that most P2P companies start to coporate with commercial companies, and many commercial companies switch to provide more free download. In the end, most people are not sure what they are doing is legal or illegal. In other words, it doesn't matter.
Creators are no longer so depend on the big company to produce and promote their creations. They have more free chanel to sell their music or panting. More and more creators can even glad to accept that they only want the ownership, but not to sell their work. They are more open mind to show their creation. Moreover, they find the new way to make their living. For example. they held more live show instead of just selling their CD in the shop. They launch their small movie through free website but still attract a lot of audiens and still have their own fans. Sociel driven force play a key role in this new world.
Scenario 1: Software piracy
l Technical driving force and economical force causing pirate issue: As it is hard to develop software, the cost of developing it is higher, resulting in high retail prices. In the meanwhile, the hardware industry would be more advanced, the price of hardware equipment, like DVD, is cheaper. So the pirate products are cheaper than the original ones. People rather buy pirate products than original ones. It is a vicious circle. Because of the high cost of developing software, the commercial company could reduce the price of software, while more pirate firms come about. Especially in the developing countries, the pirate problems are very serious. l Counterattack from commercial company: 1. The software companies adopt lawsuits against these pirate venders and factories. , Even though they would win the lawsuits, they still can not stop this pirate behavior, because the profit pirate make is so huge. Especially in the developing countries, the pirate problems are very serious. 2. The software firms take technical protections, like un-copy, entry code. But these protections still can’t stop the illegal behavior. 3. The software company starts to force the government to make a strict law to stop the pirate behavior. l Political or legal actions from government : Because the pressure from the commercial software companies is large, the government has to fact up to it, and seizes these pirates seriously. The pirate vendors replace selling in the market by selling on the internet. The government set up the digital police to catch these illegal websites. But these still can’t threaten pirates. l Copyright pirate becomes a international issue : Most software companies are held by USA. In order to protect it’s own profit, USA utilizes “section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act”. However, the developing nations with serious pirate problems, in order to boost their development, don’t want to pay so high price for software. Their law to punish the copy piracy is loose. And the governments in developing countries, to a certain extent, allow copyright pirate. There exists a benefit conflicts between nations. And USA tries to settle down this problem on table. Meetings are held in WCO, WTO or UN. Because the developing nations are still in economical difficulty, they don’t want to follow the rules made by USA. So they can’t obtain the consensus. l Outcome: 1. The pirate problems are still serious. 2. The conflicts between USA and developing countries, like china, and India become severe. 3. The software industry is not as prosperous as before.
Scenario 1 : P2P
2006 Technology driven · P2P download become very popular
-->Music CD sales decrease
-->Movie DVD sales decrease
-->Movie cinema sales stable (no increase, but only best sellers last long)
2008 · Music CD retailer business shrink · Movie DVD retailer business shrink · International chain Movie Cinema still alive base on their excellent marketing and economic scale · Small or specialized movie cinema face management or finance crisis
1. Closed or bankrupt
2. Transformed to cheaper tickets, lower quality, older movie, only providing big screen. (2nd round movie)
3. Transformed to specific topic movies for specific customers (topic cinema), but still very hard to run the business.
2016 Results of market segments: · Customers Type Type1: P2P Users increase dramatically. More people know how to use this. Type2: Non-P2P Users who buy pirate products slightly decrease. Type3: Legal music and movie buyers decrease sharply day after day.