Future of Copyright

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Introduction

The concept of copyright is not new. It is an old concept that continues to be applied to multiple products within multiple industries within our modern society. As advances in technology have transpired, so have the economic and political ideologies that seek to protect, apply and enforce the concept of copyright.

Since the concept of copyright is so versatile, the implications of the term have changed over time. So much so, that common notions of what constitutes copyright is highly conditional on the individual. In fact, the entire concept of copyright has different meanings to different individuals.

Our intention with this Scenario Planning exercise is to define copyright in broad terms, and then specifically illustrate how the Internet and World Wide Web have changed the implications of copyright within the media industries: audio, video, and publishing. We will examine the technological, economic and political driving forces that facilitate or hinder these changes, and also the legal and social implications for society.

. Great research! I llike that you have taken the time to understand and think through the issues.  GOOD STUFF!
. The systems diagram have organised the forces in terms of hierarchies, and not systems.  Remember that issues link with each other irrespective of how they are best organised.  Politcal issues drive social issues, and economic issues etc, Look at the systems diagra of the the MashUp group or the group working on the creation of software.
. great work, good luck, look forward to seeing you next week!

Group members

We are presently MBA candidates at the Universiteit van Amsterdam Business School. Our group consists of Ching-Heng Wu, Hui-Fei Yen, and Vijay Kalappa.

Research questions

1.What is Copyright?

2. What is Intellectual Property?

3. What is a Patent?

4. What is the Public Domain?

5. What is P2P?

6. what behavior of users would cause the copyright infringement of software?

7. What is the effect of copyright infringement on digital culture?

8. What is the DRM and what is its aim?

9. Is there any DRM implementations? Give examples

10.How long would Copyright last ?

11. Is there anyone to oppose the copyright? What are their arguments?

12. What is open content?

13. What is copyleft?

14. What is copyfree

15. What is moral right?

16. Is it possible to preserve or protect copyright by using technology skill?

17. What is the original of copyright?

18. What is copyfight?

Driving forces of copyright

Description:

We have identified four major driving forces: technological, economic, legal and political. In our present society, the rapid pace of technological development means that it is the most obvious driving force for copyright issues. This subsequently prompts economic driving forces to come into play. The economic implications of the technology will ascertain whether the technology endangers or liberates copyright issues. It may be evidenced through a reduction in product marketshare or sales, or may even call for a redesign in existing business models. Legal driving forces become a major issue when financial and economic questions are raised regarding copyright. In theory, the law is implemented to protect firms and individuals from financial and intellectual property losses. However, the interpretation of this law is varied and contingent on many factors: nature of the copyright issue, medium, parties involved and importantly, although indirectly, any political driving forces. Protection of a nation's intellectual property - be it artistic, technological or simply procedural - is a serious issue. It applies equally to individuals or corporations alike.


Driving forces analysis:

Copyright: Technological Driving Forces

Copyright: Economic Driving Forces

Copyright: Legal Driving Forces

Copyright: Political Driving Forces

Systemetic diagram

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Identify all players

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Three different type of attitudes toward copyright

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1.Support copyright for economic purposes: (Vijay)

2.Support copyright for ownership and not economics: (Ruby)

3.Support open resource platforms, no copyright needed: (Jo)

Scenarios

Scenario 1 Background: Free driving forces shape the future of copyright

“Anti-copyright” proponents would shape the future of copyright, below are the stuation would come up in theis sceanrio:

1. Fast-growing IT technology :

As IT technology advances, more people utilize the internet to share resources with each other, causing the commercial company to suit against the consumers and against the software companies that provide the share platform.

2. Lawsuit failure :

More and more firm’s lawsuits fail because there is not a clear line between the two concepts (copyright and free information). Moreover, there are holes in the law.

3. Strict laws implemented; but fail :

Corporations force the government to make more stringent copyright law to punish the pirates and the software companies and the consumers who download the film, music, etc. illegally. However, the technology is growing faster than the speed at which the government can deal with the copyright infringement problem. Even though the government has strict laws, they can’t stop the user from downloading the data from the Internet. The Internet users and Software Company always have ways to escape from the Internet police’s investigation.

4. Infraction construction :

The government also strengthens the telecommunication structure, such as “ fiber to the home, that increases the Internet speed. With the Internet going more and more public, people become more motivated to share and download resources from the Internet.

5. The death of piracy :

As more and more people can share and download resources from the Internet, they become less motivated to buy pirate products from illegal vendors. As a result, the pirate factories and pirate vendors would die out.

6. Social movement :

In the society, the anti-copyright movement is getting support from the public. Their arguments are below: a). Copyright originated only in the last few decades. Creativity flourished well before copyright existed. b) While some are in favor of limited copyright terms, copyrights in many countries last for periods longer than a human lifetime. It is argued that even if a limited copyright period would be beneficial, these long copyright terms hold content back far longer than necessary. c) Many argue that copyright is inherently contrary to the ideals of free speech and expression, which are valued highly by free societies. d) Some companies abuse copyright privileges by suing or threatening to sue those who clearly are within their rights under fair use, but who cannot afford to defend themselves in court. e) Frequently, content creators do not hold their own copyrights, instead relinquishing them to publishers, producers, and the like, through contractual arrangements.

7. Effects of education :

Through education, people are more willing to share what they have than before. So more creators don’t feel like copyright. The world is going to go a utopia.

8. Business model change :

However, the commercial companies would face the severe economic situation because market share deceases. Small ones would go bankruptcy. Big ones tried to lower the prices of their products, and to add extra values into their products to attract people to buy them. The commercial companies also change their ways of doing business.

Scenario 2 Background: Economic driving forces shape the future of copyright

Scenario 1: A future where economic driving forces shape the future of copyright

The rapid pace of technological development means that it has become one of the key drivers in shaping copyright issues. However, it is the economic implications of the technology that is the catalyst for ascertaining whether the technology endangers or liberates copyright issues. It may be evidenced through a reduction in product market share or sales, or may even call for a redesign in existing business models. Legal driving forces become a major issue when financial and economic questions are raised regarding copyright. In theory, the law is implemented to protect firms and individuals from financial and intellectual property losses. However, the interpretation of this law is varied and contingent on many factors, primarily the nature of the copyright violation,

In some instances, the increase in illegal P2P sharing of information – music, film and general “theft” of intellectual property from artists, creators and corporations alike has prompted a backlash from those parties and is at least partly responsible for an economic downturn due to a loss of revenues. Big media firms such as TimeWarner, Sony and Bertelsmann are threatening to take their case to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

In an effort to boost the economy, political driving forces adopt the copyright issue and the government becomes involved. Re-categorized as a “national” as opposed to purely economic issue, the government claims that the protection of a nation's intellectual property - be it artistic, technological or simply procedural - is paramount. Moreover, if citizens steal information from sources internally, they are stealing from their own. It becomes a major campaign issue for politicians around the world. Governments institute the following mandates with regard to information transfer:

1. Greater laws to prevent copyright theft

2. Strict enforcement of these laws – violators subjected to imprisonment

3. Legal systems amended to ensures greater financial rewards to creators of content

4. Media is given a greater platform to promote original content

5. New systems implemented to educate public on theft of software


Scenario 3 Background: An amalgamation of driving forces shape the future of copyright

There is a whole new world. The background is based on the following two assuptions.

Assumption1: Economic driven force failed

Companies can't catch the technology development and make the law immedietely to stop pirate products or illegal download. There is always a surprise on the new technology innovations. There is always time lag to lobby and force the government making the new law.

Moreover, this is an incredibly long-term war!! The companies not only invest a lot of money on making the new rules but also spend huge money conducting countless and endless law suits. Although at the begining, these coporations are considered to have good economic power. However, as their sales go dwon year by year and the profit margin decrease day by day, these companies are eventually running out of their energy and money to protect the copyright. So, they stop attacking others and become defend their standpoint. In the end, these companies are either surrender or totally disapear.

The Only few smart suvivers come into this senario 3......


Assumption2: The free resource proponents don't go successful neither

Even they have great idea: everyone shares everything to each other, and the whole human being get benefits form it. However, this Utoperia is hard to implement and realize.

First, it is against the "human nature". Only some creators want to create without clarifying their ownership. Most creators still feel unhappy to see other people using thir work without remark where it come from. Moreover, it is this ownership drives creators' motivation to create more master piece.

In additional, creators need to make a living. They can creat their music or painting without charge high price or rewarding. They can create without coporate with big companies to publish it. However, At least they need to clarify their ownership, then they can perform it or directly sell it to maintain a basic living. Not everyone is amateur creators!

Moreover, seldom governments are willing or able to 100% support creators. There are much more capitalism countries than communism counties. The free-resource senario is more like a mission impposible.


The process to a whole new world: Amalgamation

1.Underground Age:

Like every thing happened so far. Copyright exist in most of countries. The companies are suffered from decreasing sales and profit, so they put effort to protect copyright by atacking the illegal vendors and illegal consummers. According to copyright law, its ileal to download music or movie by P2P without paying. However, while music company want to sue the websites or software company, It's time consuming and exhausted.

The pirate industries and vendors are still there, especially in most of developing countries. The internet download behaviors are more and more prevailing, regardless it is illegal. It's a world of mess. Most of the things are conducted and developmented underground.

2.Ambiguous age:

The characteristic of this process is a huge grey area. Everyone has different opinions about what is legal and what is illegal. It's not black and white world anymore. The NGO and anti-copyright proponents develope more theories to justify their standtpoint and query the exist of copyright. There are a lot of distputes, disagreement, and ambiguous standpoints. More and more new technology come to the markets and try to solve the problems. Ex: "itune" has a new function let people share the whole computer's music without download; "Youtube" share the MTV and vedio online. But all these new creation only let the concept of copyright more complex and hard to define.

Global government and NGO try to organize a WCO---World copyright Organization which is directlt under the United Nations' level. However, its very difficult to bring people with different opnions to talk together. Therefore, while WCO is helding in the formal building, the informal protest groups are helding another meeting otside that building.


3.Emerging new world:

It's a market decision world. Many commercial companies already died of their old business modle. Some commercial companies transform themselves to the whole new face which utilise the new technology and get profit from it. Many interesting is that most P2P companies start to coporate with commercial companies, and many commercial companies switch to provide more free download. In the end, most people are not sure what they are doing is legal or illegal. In other words, it doesn't matter.

Creators are no longer so depend on the big company to produce and promote their creations. They have more free chanel to sell their music or panting. More and more creators can even glad to accept that they only want the ownership, but not to sell their work. They are more open mind to show their creation. Moreover, they find the new way to make their living. For example. they held more live show instead of just selling their CD in the shop. They launch their small movie through free website but still attract a lot of audiens and still have their own fans. Sociel driven force play a key role in this new world.

Scenario 1: Copy-left world

Software Industustry story...

l Technical and economic driving forces increase piracy issue: As it is hard to develop software, the cost of developing it is higher, resulting in high retail prices. At the same time, the hardware industry continues to advanced while the price of equipment drops. Thus, pirated products are cheaper than the original ones. People prefer to purchase cheaper products, and consequently buy pirated software. It becomes a vicious circle. Because of the high cost of developing software, commercial companies cannot reduce the price of software, while more pirate firms come about. Piracy issues are especially problematic in developing countries. l Counterattack from commercial companies: 1. The software companies adopt lawsuits against these pirate venders and factories. , Even though they would win the lawsuits, they still can not stop this pirate behavior, because the profit pirate make is so huge. Especially in the developing countries, the pirate problems are very serious. 2. The software firms take technical protections, like un-copy, entry code. But these protections still cannot stop the illegal behavior. 3. The software company starts to force the government to make a strict law to stop the pirate behavior. l Political or legal action by government : Because the pressure from the commercial software companies is large, the government has to fact up to it, and seizes these pirates seriously. The pirate vendors replace selling in the market by selling on the internet. The government set up the digital police to catch these illegal websites. But these still can’t threaten pirates. l Copyright pirate becomes a international issue : Most software companies are held by USA. In order to protect it’s own profit, USA utilizes “section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act”. However, the developing nations with serious pirate problems, in order to boost their development, don’t want to pay so high price for software. Their law to punish the copy piracy is loose. And the governments in developing countries, to a certain extent, allow copyright pirate. There exists a benefit conflicts between nations. And USA tries to settle down this problem on table. Meetings are held in WCO, WTO or UN. Because the developing nations are still in economical difficulty, they don’t want to follow the rules made by USA. So they can’t obtain the consensus. l Outcome: 1. The pirate problems are still serious. 2. The conflicts between USA and developing countries, like china, and India become severe. 3. The software industry is not as prosperous as before.

Google Library story...

1. The Association of American Publishers, which includes firms such as Penguin, McGraw-Hill, and Pearson lose their lawsuit against Google. The right to publish both searchable passages from books, and in some instances, the entire contents of the book, is widely viewed as a landmark victory for the company. 2. The successful introduction of Google Library – an amalgamation of Google Book Search and Google Scholar – to the online community leads to a gradual decrease in sales for bookstores around the world as information is available free of charge to users. 3. Authors of original works are paid through advertising revenues for information that is downloaded on their specific property. The financial gains from this are enough to offset the loss of revenue from copyright infringements. However, all information becomes a part of the public domain. 4. The default length of copyright is reduced from life + 50 to just lifetime. This is mainly attributed to the fact that copyrights are rarely held by the creator of content, but relinquished to publishers, corporations or other entities. These bodies then enforce copyright purely for financial gain. 5. Information in all books becomes available and accessible online. Authors choose to publish their content directly with Google, thus bypassing the traditional publishing outlets. 6. The necessity for an editor becomes incidental and allows for many more publishers to make their books available online. 7. Copyright issues as they existed in 2006 disappear, embracing the Japanese Copyfree philosophy. 8. Music and film also become widely available and the demise of the other traditional media publishing outlets begins in earnest.


Peer to peer story...

Because of the technology driven force we maintioned before,P2P download are more and more popular. Therefore, music CD sales decrease, movie DVD sales decrease, and the movie cinema sales is flat, only thoese best sellers can last long.

In 2008, Music CD retailer business shrink, movie DVD retailer business shrink. International chain Movie Cinema still alive base on their excellent marketing and economic scale. However, small or specialized movie cinema face management or finance crisis. Some are bankrupt, and the other are try to transformed to specific topic movies for specific customers (topic cinema), but still very hard to run the business.

In 2016, the consumers based on different types of behaviour have different situation. Type1: P2P Users increase dramatically. More people know how to use this. Type2: Non-P2P Users who buy pirate products slightly decrease. Type3: Legal music and movie buyers decrease sharply day after day.

Scenario 2: Copyright world

Software story...

l Technical driving force and economical force causing pirate issue: In the developing countries, the pirate problems are very serious. l Counterattack from commercial company: 1. The software companies adopt lawsuits against these pirate venders and factories. The commercial companies win the lawsuits. Except the lawsuit against pirates, the software firms also suits against the consumers who use illegal software. That threatens people not to use the illegal sources. 2. The software firms take technical protections, like un-copy, entry code. It works 3. In order to deal with the pirate problems in developing nations, the commercial companies of USA press their authority, USA government, to negotiate with developing nations, like India and china. l Political or legal actions from government : 1. Through education, people are educated the importance of copyright. Because of the existence of copyright, people are willing to produce creative arts. Also people are educated how bad they are if they buy illegal products. 2. The government establishes the digital police to arrest the pirate vendor on the internet, and also set up complete regulations that limit the internet behavior. l International cooperation for setting up international copyright law 1. USA tries to settle down this problem on table. Relevant meetings are held in WCO, WTO or UN. 2. As the economics of developing countries are improved a lot, and the living level is also raised, people in developing nations are more willing to buy the original software. The authorities of developing nations are more inclined to obey the international norm. 3. The international copyright law is set up. All the nations cooperate closely to arrest and convict these pirates. l Outcomes : 1. The pirate problems are less serious. 2. The software industry is as prosperous as before, because of the copyright protection.


Google Library story...

1. The Association of American Publishers, which includes firms such as Penguin, McGraw-Hill, and Pearson win their lawsuit against Google. This is a major blow to Google Scholar & Book Search. The company is subsequently required to dismantle Scholar and Book specific servers. 2. Internet begin to look elsewhere for information, spawning a revival of the library and a return to traditional searches for information: through site-specific databases and catalogs. 3. Publishers question the rights of libraries to loan information to people. 4. Publishers require that all accessed information must be paid for 5. Traditional media publishers become very wealthy by charging for all information. 6. Legislation that is implemented to protect copyright and the intellectual property of creators becomes increasingly strict


Peer to peer story...

In 2006, Because of the technology driven force we maintioned before,P2P download are more and more popular. Therefore, music CD sales decrease, movie DVD sales decrease, and the movie cinema sales is flat, only thoese best sellers can last long.

Economic driven consequently let music and movie producing companies take action successfully! The do the following actions:

Invest new technology to overall detect Internet upload and download flow. 1.Warm theP2P heavy users to stop illegal download. 2.Sue the illegal download people based on copyright. 3.Successfully protect copyright & rescue their business.

In 2010, they successfully keep innovating Anti-Copy CD and DVD skills. Apply to all new music and movie products.They force domestic government to enforce copyright law. They lobby to legislate new law to cope with all kinds of new technology free-share tool. Developed countries force developing countries to reduce pirate and P2P. Form international copyright accusation to gather companies who have the same goal and to work together. They Held world copyright meeting (WCO) in the country level to discuss protecting copyright.Moreover, they negotiate and re-set music CD and film DVD price based on area economic situation. They also Set-up big online music and movie shop which provide trial music and movies, but can only own by paying.

Scenario 3: New wave--Hybrid world

Software story....

l Copyright pirate becomes a international issue : The pirate problem is serious in developing countries, whereas it is less serious in developed countries. There are existing profit conflicts between nations. Due to economical reasons, the authorities of developing nations don’t implement the copyright law strictly. These behaviors of developing countries make USA irate. USA realizes the trade sanction on the nations with serious pirate problems. USA tries to settle down this problem on table. They hold meetings in WCO, WTO or UN. But they have no consensus. l New concept “ copy-free” spread: 1. In the meanwhile, there exists a group of people who promote the concept “copy-free”: people can share what they have with each other. This wave originates from Japan, and then spread to USA, and then to the entire world. 2. Based on the above idea, the free software and open sources are more and more. The governments in the developing nations trumpet these kinds of software, like Linux.

l Actions from the commercial companies: 1. In order not to loose the market in the developing nations, the software firms don’t want to depend on their government, and try to solve the problem by their ways. They have prices differential in different nations. Also they provide free version for students, and charge more money for enterprise version. 2. The software firms also take some technical protections. Sometimes it works, but sometimes it fails.

l A new world : As the economics in the developing nations gets better and better, the authorities are willing to compromise on the copyright issue. The meeting held in the world organization works, and an international copyright law is set up. All the nations cooperate closely to arrest and convict these pirates.


Google Library story...

1. The Association of American Publishers’ lawsuit against Google results in a stalemate. 2. The right to publish both searchable passages from books, and in some instances, the entire contents of the book, is permitted although publishers must be compensated whenever a source is accessed. 3. A percentage of Google advertising revenue is benchmarked and channeled to the publishers accordingly. 4. Intellectual property, original ideas and concepts are monitored by Google engines themselves. 5. Intelligent software is able to read literature and ascertain whether or not content is original or not. 6. This begins with basic recognition that identifies verbatim copying, and develops to recognize ideas or concepts that have been copied. 7. Information conforms to the open (but not free) content paradigm.

Peer to peer story

In 2006, Because of the technology driven force we maintioned before,P2P download are more and more popular. Therefore, music CD sales decrease, movie DVD sales decrease, and the movie cinema sales is flat, only thoese best sellers can last long.

Economic driven consequently let music and movie producing companies take action successfully! The do the following actions: Invest new technology to overall detect Internet upload and download flow. 1.Warm theP2P heavy users to stop illegal download. 2.Sue the illegal download people based on copyright. 3.Successfully protect copyright & rescue their business.

In 2010, there is an evolution process. 1. Parties exhausted of copyright war. 2. Market decision: die out, or transform and survive

In 2016, Transform and Merge to totally new type of business modle! (Copyright is not an issue any more)For example, music industry develope to a whole new type of business model which operate by the following chracteristic. 1.Creators create music 2.Creators launch by themselves 3.Creators select Music Company to marketing, and distribute music. Choosing release online or retailer. Promote on web, radio, TV, concert….

Initial Presentation