Decline of the Russian population

>Name:

Decline of the Russian population.

>What:

The population of Russia reached its peak of approximately 148,500,000 in the early 1990’s. Since then it has seen a sharp decline although this is now beginning to slow down. The 2009 growth rate was -0.467%. The current size of the population is 141,903,979. Current estimates are that Russia’s population will fall to 111,000,000 by the year 2050.

There are a number of factors that are driving the population down and these have been debated. While birthrates have remained comparable to developed countries, the mortality rate is very high. The average life expectancy for men has also sharply declined and is now 69.

A shrinking population will have a considerable impact on Russia’s future, it will mean a smaller labor force which could in turn lead to a slowdown in the economy.

>Enablers:

1.High mortality rate

Russia has a very high death rate of 15 deaths per 1000 people per year. This is far higher than the world's average death rate of just under 9. The death rate in the U.S. is 8 per 1000 and for the United Kingdom it's 10 per 1000. Alcohol-related deaths in Russia are very high and alcohol-related emergencies represent the bulk of emergency room visits in the country. With this high death rate, Russian life expectancy is low - the World Health Organization estimates the life expectancy of Russian men at 59 years while women's life expectancy is considerably better at 72 years. This difference is primarily a result of high rates of alcoholism among males.

2.Low birth rate and fertility rate

Russia's total fertility rate is low at 1.3 births per woman. This represents the number of children each Russian woman has during her lifetime. A replacement total fertility rate to maintain a stable population is 2.1 births per woman. With such a low total fertility rate Russian women are contributing to a declining population.

The birth rate in the country is also quite low; the crude birth rate is 10 births per 1000 people. The world average is just over 20 per 1000 and in the U.S. the rate is 14 per 1000.

Some suggested reasons for the low birth rate are doubts that the population has about the future, doubts about available housing, level of medical services, low incomes and doubts regarding availability of food.

3.Abortion

The online news source mosnews.com reported that in 2004 1.6 million women had abortions in Russia while 1.5 million gave birth. In 2003, the BBC reported that Russia had, "13 terminations for every 10 live births."

4.Immigration

Immigration into Russia is low - immigrants are primarily ethnic Russians moving out of former republics (but now independent countries) of the Soviet Union. Brain drain and emigration from Russia to Western Europe and other parts of the world is high as native Russians seek to better their economic situation.

>Inhibitors:

1.Drop in alcoholism

This can be affected by government policy. The last significant drive to battle alcoholism in Russia was in the late 80s under Gorbachev, during this time, the mortality rate was significantly lower

2.Immigration

Continuing problems in Africa will give rise to further migration into the EU. There may be a point where the EU is unable to cope and there will be spill over into former Soviet Union and eventually Russia. Russia may begin to encourage immigration and change laws to allow more people to come in. Whether Russia would pose an attractive destination for immigrants is another question. This is unlikely but a plausible scenario. Government Policy – currently there is a monetary incentive for giving birth “give birth to a Patriot” with cash incentives for giving birth to children via lottery.

>Paradigms

Drop in population will lead to a drop in the labor force. Current conditions in Russia will lead to further migration of skilled workers adding to the brain drain that already exists. The state of the Russian economy will be weakened by the loss of workforce as well as the loss of talent in some key industry areas. Economically declining populations are thought to lead to deflation, which has a number of effects. However, Russia, whose economy has been rapidly growing (8.1% in 2007) even as its population is shrinking, currently has high inflation (12% as of late 2007)[10].

For an agricultural or mining economy the average standard of living in a declining population, at least in terms of material possessions, will tend to rise as the amount of land and resources per person will be higher. Could this mean more resources for more people? Possibly lead to a better quality of life? Easier to manage the population. Give up land to China?

Russia may begin to open its borders more to immigration to bolster its own falling numbers. Whether it will be an attractive place for immigrants is a different question.

>Experts

>Timing

>Web Resources

http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/russiapop.htm http://healthpolicy.stanford.edu/events/gorbachevs_antialcohol_campaign_and_the_russian_mortality_crisis/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline