Big LAN
In this scenario, impacted by the war against the secession of Taiwan and the possible recession of economy, the Internet in China would be come to another situation in 2015.
Today, we can not deny the economy of China is growing very fast and take part in more and more international business trade. But China is facing the pressure of increase the exchange rate of RMB to U.S dollars. Furthermore, the huge market and immature business system also attract speculators to China. There has been a real estate bubble in China. And there is also a worry about whether China’s economy is over heat. Having experienced the disadvantage of following other country’s norms like IPv4, China has decided to develop its own norms. And the NGI project called NSFCNET is on its way.
Because of the pressure from the U.S and other countries, we predict China will increase the exchange rate of RMB to U.S dollars around 2007 and the real estate bubble would break around 2008. But the economy would not come to a recession in 2008, because of the investment brought in by the Olympic Games and the extreme support from the Chinese Government. There would be less foreign investment after the Olympic Games and the recession would come between 2009 and 2010. Also in this period of time, Taiwan may change its constitution and accelerate its secession.
Although the 2010 World Expo would bring a little growth to the Chinese economy, the situation of the economy is still not good. Government wants to distract people’s attention from economy and find a leverage to the economy growth. So China would probably expose its own NGI norms after the slight economy increase after the 2010 World Expo. And as a result of the bad economy situation, the unemployment ratio would increase after the Olympic Games and World Expo around 2012.
There would be a war against Taiwan’s secession around 2013. This would cause the damage to the Internet infrastructure in China, U.S cracking down on China and the increasing price of chips and devices. The damage to the infrastructure and the expensive network devices would decrease the number of users of Internet in China. On the other hand, the war and the new Chinese own Internet norms would both reinforce the information control and reduce the online service from foreign companies in China. In this case, the Internet content is highly filtered by the Chinese Government.
So around 2015, there would be less internet users and less Internet content. And those Internet users can only get access to the information or application released by the Chinese Government. The Internet in China at that moment is somehow like a big LAN. The use inside this network is much more than outside it.
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