Academic Reflection - WC

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In this log I will concentrate on how the scenario thinking process can help organizations and individuals become a planning tool. The scenario thinking process looks on how the external factors and environment as a whole affect the direction of futures. What if this same approach could be used for planning our day to day life and even the organization which we will run.

Looking back at the lectures an example, which Daniel provided, comes back to me frequently. It was about a study, which looks at why alcoholics stay in that frame of mind. He illustrated how the result of the studies can be applied to understanding why for example, a person who is traveling always becomes very tired even though they usually do not exert much physical activity. They mainly just sit until the airplane arrives at the destination. What was very fascinating is that there is a part of the brain which continually calculates the future. By that I mean, it comes up with scenarios for what is going to happen next. When we wake up, our brain will already think that we need to take a shower, eat breakfast and etcetera. It will pre calculate the tasks we need to undertake in order to achieve that. When traveling however, there is much uncertainty. The brain cannot calculate a future scenario as it has never been to a particular place and does not know what to expect.

Working on this assumption, how can scenario thinking become a planning tool? When individuals set their goals for the week, month or years they are in fact laying the groundwork for a scenario planning process. They do so unknowingly however. Taking a larger goal into consideration, for example, to obtain a masters degree before a particular age, we can see how a scenario thinking process can be implemented. One would need to look at the external factors and driving forces that can affect the outcome of the goal. Also the current circumstances will be taken into consideration. Scenarios can be compiled by the process which we have followed in class. By using a systems map and double entry matrix, we can come up with short scenarios which will give us some insight if our goals can be attained. If our goal is extremely unrealistic this will definitely reflect in the scenarios which will be compiled. The environment and driving forces cannot arrive at an unrealistic future if they are done correctly. By having this information, we can shape our activities and with some level of certainty, be able to predict what might be the outcome of our goal. Being ready for multiple scenarios by exploring them before hand, will add a level of confidence to our life.