3. Scenario 3

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Possible Scenarios of Russia: Key factors setting: dependence on Oil revenue/infrastructure/IT, Education, welfare/foreign policy/Working force/environmental policy/

Leverage of Oil/Revenue view

1. The prosperity of Russia in 2030 (Oil version) Oil price will keep stable at high level to focus on all resources to develop economylike China Score high in economic, political system, Infrastructure, geopolitics  Economic growth: still highly depend on the natural resources of Russia and use it as a leverage point. Oil/natural gas money will be the foundation to invest in the infrastructure of Technology, education, social wealth care system.  Stable political system---enforcement bold reforms--elimination of corruption of government---more enforcement on the rule of the law.- more attractive for foreign investments  Better Usage of internet- better communication-better controlled “democratic “ system –more liberal environment for ordinar people  New big investment projects for energy related technology.  Fully utilization of high quality of human resource to develop the high-tech (related to aero-space/weapons industry) business sectors.  Highly influential in Europe regions on the aspect of Politics and Economics.  It becomes a virtual leader in the European region.

The prosperity of Russia in 2030 (diversify the economy revenue stream, Oil resource will act as more like strategic resource to EU and China in the politic status)


2. Sustain strength in the economic sector and leverage it well in the country, but the conflict in the geopolitics get worse , Russia in 2030 (Oil version) Oil price will keep stable at high level to focus on all resources to develop economylike China  Economic growth: Oil/natural gas money will be the foundation to invest in the infrastructure of Technology, education, social wealth care system.  Stable political system---elimination of corruption of government--- Controlled “democratic “ system ----more enforcement on the rule of the law.- more attractive for foreign investments  New big investment projects for energy related technology.  Fully utilization of high quality of human resource to develop the high-tech (related to aero-space/weapons industry) business sectors.  Regional conflict between EU/NATO for new available energy resource after the climate change( global warming effect)---such as Norway and Russia


Restructuring of Russia View

3. The break up of Russia by several regions for their own benefits in 2030 (poor version) Oil price will keep Low, stable price due to the demand size and new breakthrough development of alternative energy sources.  Oil Field produces less due to low development of existing field (low effiency) and discovery of new field  Economic stop growing- lack of money to invest the infrastructure  Political instability new leader keeps coming out to enforce his power by changing power structure of the government corruption is still a heavy problem- poor business climate for foreign investment  Global warming makes the economy suffers more. Russia needs to enforce environmental policy to secure national security. It causes strong inter conflict among states in Russia in terms of Resources, distribution of income.  The internal conflict among cities and rural areas, resources rich states and resource poor states. The conflicts finally break out. Civil war happens because of inequality and resources allocation issues.  More high- quality human resource moves out to EU or US for better job opportunities and quality of life.  The population decline more mainly by the deterioration of social health system and loss of high quality workforces. The immigrants will account sizable work force in Russia.(such as from China or other formal soviet union members)




4.Rebirth after destruction for Russia in 2030

The system crashes by overdependence on Oil. The climate change exacerbates the inequality of resources and interest conflict among many interest groups. The controlled democratic system cannot sustain any more. The complete reforms initiated by the full democratic elections of presidents. Then, the storyline will more like the prosperity of Russia in 2030.  The business environment of Russia will improve a lot. The foreign partner will attractive not only by the resource but also cheap high-tech labor force.The major difference is that it doesn’t solely depend on the natural resources. It will be leveraged by its existing high quality human resources to further develop the niche market in the commercial sectors of aero-space technology and military Weapon related industry.