Group Members

Guy Keidar
Gerrit Ledderhof
Chia Wei Lee
Johanna Little
Geoff Spielman

Introduction

This page is the main source for the scenario set Future of China in 2030.

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If you have any comments for us, please put them here so we can read them. We welcome any input!

You guys might want to look at articles published by Bobo Lo, he writes on Russia but also Russo-Chinese relations. Andrei.

Research Questions

Government and Politics

What is the reality of the current political system (is it really communist)?: China is operating under yet another strong centralized government as it has been for the past 4 thousand years. It is not really communist, just a different form of strong centralized government.

What is current foreign policy?

What is China’s sphere of influence?

Who does China currently consider as allies/enemies?

How does China view its role within the world? Superpower?

Could China survive democracy?

Will china join ASEAN?

Economics

What industries will be the biggest source for economic growth going forward?
Will China become a post-industrialized society in the near future and if so how will it make this transition?
What are the implications if China’s growth slows (i.e., potential starvation etc.)?
Will China continue to be dependent on other countries for economic growth or will domestic demand increase in the near future?

Society and Culture

Are there any current issues that are causing social unrest?
How will the income disparity in China affect its future?
Will the growing difference in ratio of men to women have a negative impact on China’s future?
What aspects of China’s culture will be the strongest driving forces in the country’s future?

Land and Climate China is located on the western shore of the Pacific Ocean and enjoys both coastline and inland landscapes. The country's huge size, some 9.6 million squared kilometers, implies it has a continental climate and a span of nearly 50 degrees. Most of the land is located in a temperate zone, while the north is frigid and the south tropical and sub tropical. The country's wide range of climates includes areas that have long winters and no summer, areas that have only summer and such that experience distinctive seasonal changes. Monsoons are common around throughout the country and change directions between summer and winter. "From November to April, the dry and cold winter monsoons blow from the Siberia and Mongolian Plateau to China, resulting in cold and dry winters in north China. From May to October, the warm and humid summer monsoons from the seas in the east and south meet the cold air from the north, resulting in plentiful rainfall which accounts for 80% of the total annual precipitation. Monsoons are therefore the major source of rainfall in China throughout the year". As suggested above, average temperature range throughout the land and vary from 25 degrees celcius minus five degrees celcius.

National symbols: Underlying characteristics of the Chinese culture can be found in its national symbols. The Chinese flag is red on which upper left five yellow stars are presented. The small four ones represent Chinese four social classes – the worker, the farmer, the petty bourgeoisie and the national bourgeoisie. The stars are surrounding a bigger star, that represents the communist party and the structure represents the unity of the Chinese people around the party. The red colour is said to represent the revolution and the yellow stands for golden brilliant rays (as well as the Chinese skin colour). Chinas national anthem is the "March of the Volunteers". The anthem was composed after the Chinese-Japanies incident in 1931 and reflected a strong belief and confidence of the Chinese in defeating the invading Japanese. Along the years the anthem was claimed to arouse patriotism, express the morale of the Chinese in revolution and act as a reminder that danger lies also in times of peace. The national emblem demonstrates richness and grandeur of the People's Republic of China. It presents the Tiananmen Square, were the ceremony of the founding of the P.R.C. was held. A gear wheel and grain represent workers and farmers. The five stars from the flag are a reminder of the unity of the people around the party. it suggests that it s a socialist state that is led by the working class and based upon the alliance between workers and peasants. The national flower, the Tree Peony, is also said to represent the characters of the Chinese people. How could these symbols reflect in times of changes and enable or disable driving forces?

Tourism Chinas landscape, history and culture turn it to a touristic attraction. According to the forecasting of WTTC, Chinese tourism industry is supposed annually rising 10.4% in the coming decade (years?). It is estimated by the World Tourism Organization that China will be the world’s largest tourist destination and the fourth largest country in tourists output by 2020. Tourism can act as a driver for penetration of information and cultural diversity into China

Medical system Medicine facilities and quality varies between big cities and rural areas. Larger cities operate western style medical facilities (hosting local as well as international staff). Rural areas may enjoy only limited services. After the founding of New China in 1949 the government put emphasis on improving medical services in rural areas, in preventing diseases and in giving a boost to traditional Chinese medicine. "A nationwide public health network has now been basically formed and an adequate contingent of medical personnel has been established" "By the end of 1999, there were 310,000 public health institutions (including clinics) with 3.16 million beds, of which 2.93 million beds were in hospitals and clinics. There were 4.46 million medical personnel, including 2.05 million doctors and 1.25 million nurses. The public health institutions, hospital and clinic beds and medical personnel increased by 83 percent, 58 percent and 81 percent, respectively, compared with those in 1978". "Traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine have been promoted simultaneously. The incidence of many epidemic diseases has dropped considerably, and some endemic diseases are now under control. Rural health work has been improved, greatly contributing to the overall health of the population. The average life expectancy of Chinese people, the death rate of infants and childbirth death rates have almost reached the levels of developed countries."

"The Ministry of Health classify the hospitals into three classes--one, two, three (3 referring to the highest level of integrated hospitals), and each class is divided into three grades- first, second third. The first-class hospitals are mainly sanitation hospitals which provide preventions, medical treatment, health care and healing services. The second-class hospitals are regional hospitals which provide comprehensive health services. The three-class hospitals mainly provide high professional and specialized medical treatments and health services. Most of the hospitals are funded by the government and are non-profit institutions. A small number of hospitals and clinics are organized by the collective and individuals. Besides, some hospitals are set up for foreigners. Foreigners can go to see doctors at any medical institutions, and enjoy the same cost standard as the Chinese residents. Generally speaking, the charges of these hospitals with better conditions are much higher".

The country's size, demographic characteristics and climate suggest a major threat from an epidemic that can severely affect the market. See also the section regarding environment conditions.

Population China is the most populated country in the world. How much inhabitants? How fast does it increase? The country has a high density of population with an average population density of 135 people for every square kilometer. It spreads unbalanced with high densely coastal area in the (135 people for square kilometer on average), mid region with population density of over 200 people per square kilometer and plateaus in the west area with less than ten people for every square kilometer on average.

Elevate on birth control and its effect on population growth and on men-women ratio + more? Education - Population quality (educated) has improved in the last ___ years. Of "the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and active army of Chinese mainland, 45.71 million have had a college education ( above junior college education ); 141.09 million have had a high school education ( Vocational secondary school education is included.); 429.89 million have had a middle school education; and 451.91 million have had an elementary school education." According to the fourth national population census, the numbers of people who received education, in every 100,00 people, are: people who have had college education – up from 1422 to 3611; people who have had high school education - up from 8039 to 11146; people who have had middle school education - up from 23344 to 33961; people who have had elementary school education is - down from 37057 to35701; number of the illiterate people ( people of 15 and over who is unable to read or can read a little ) is 85.07 million – a decrease from 15.88% to 6.72% Aging - The progress of the aging of population has been quickened and its structure has changed. "People from 0 to 14 numbers 289.79 million and makes up 22.89% of the total population, and is reduced by 4.8 percent, compared with the population census in 1990. People from 15 to 64 numbers 887.93 million, and makes up 70.15% of the total population. People of 65 and over numbers 88.11 million and makes up 6.96% of the total population, and increases by 1.39 percent, compared with the population census in 1990." Since the reform and opening up, "with the rapid development of economy and society, the great improvement of people's standard of living and medical cause, especially the rapid decrease of population growth causes the quickened progress of the aging of population." Men – Women ratio – "The ratio of men to women is 106.74. Of the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and active army of Chinese mainland, men numbers 653.55 million and makes up 51.63% of the total population; women numbers 612.28 million and makes up 48.37% of the total population. The sex ratio ( taking women as 100, the ratio of men to women ) is 106.74." (Quotes until this stage are attributed to http://www.chinatravel.com/facts/general-china/)

History The formulation of the Chinese nation has gone through severe changes throughout the history, the most recent of which as a result of the last Chinese Civil War (1949). The outcome of the war was the creation of two entities: the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China. The first controls the main land, Hong Kong and Macau and the latter has control of Taiwan and related islands.

China is referred to as the oldest continuous civilization with a history of over 5,000 years. It also uses one of the world's oldest written languages. Its cultural sphere extended across East Asia as a whole, "with Chinese religion, customs, and writing systems being adopted to varying degrees by neighbors such as Japan, Korea and Vietnam."

The Dynasties In its history several lines of families (dynasties) ruled. At the beginning the land was divided by independent states that only occasionally deferred to the king. It was in 221 BC when The first unified Chinese state was established (Qin Dynasty). Then, an office of the Emperor was set up and the Chinese language was forcibly standardized. This state did not last long as the initiatives soon caused uprises and rebellion. The following Dynasty, "the Han, created a lasting Han cultural identity among its populace that would last to the present day. The Han Dynasty expanded the empire's territory considerably with military campaigns reaching Korea, Vietnam, Mongolia and Central Asia, and also helped establish the Silk Road in Central Asia." The period following Han's collapse presented disunion and three kingdoms. Following dynasties reunified China with the Tang empire ruling until the 8th century. "The Song dynasty was the first government in world history to issue paper money". "Between the 10th and 11th centuries, the population of China doubled in size. This growth came about through expanded rice cultivation in central and southern China, and the production of abundant food surpluses. Within its borders, the Northern Song Dynasty had a population of some 100 million people." It was a culturally rich period in for philosophy and arts. "Landscape art and portrait painting were brought to new levels of maturity and complexity after the Tang Dynasty, and social elites gathered to view art, share their own, and make trades of precious artworks. Philosophers …reinvigorated Confucianism with new commentary, infused Buddhist ideals, and emphasized a new organization of classic texts that brought about the core doctrine of Neo-Confucianism." In 1271, the Yuan Dynasty was established by a Mongol emperor that invaded China. "Before the invasion, Chinese dynasties reportedly had approximately 120 million inhabitants; after it the 1300 census reported roughly 60 million people." A Chinese peasant managed to over through the Mongols and founded the Ming Dynasty. It continued to spread Neo-Confucianism and expand it with ideas such as individualism and innate morality. Japan and Korea are two countries that have adopted much of these philosophies. "The Qing Dynasty, which lasted until 1912, was the last dynasty in China." In the 19th century it took a defensive posture towards European imperialism, even though it engaged in imperialistic expansion into Central Asia. At this time China awoke to the significance of the rest of the world, the West in particular. As China opened up to foreign trade and missionary activity, opium produced by British India was forced onto Qing China. Two Opium Wars with Britain weakened the Emperor's control."

Civil wars The 19th century was characterized by a vast number of rebellions and civil wars, such as the Taiping Civil War (reported to be "one of the bloodiest in human history, costing at least 20 million lives, with some estimates of up to two hundred million)", . Punti-Hakka Clan Wars and the Muslim Rebellion. "These rebellions resulted in an estimated loss of several million lives each and led to disastrous results for the economy and the countryside. The flow of British opium hastened the empire's decline. In the 19th century, the age of colonialism was at its height and the great Chinese Diaspora began". "While China was wracked by continuous war, Meiji Japan succeeded in rapidly modernizing its military and set its sights on Korea and Manchuria. Influenced by Japan, Korea declared independence from Qing China's suzerainty in 1894, leading to the First Sino-Japanese War, which resulted in the Qing Dynasty's cession of both Korea and Taiwan to Japan. By the early 20th century, mass civil disorder had begun, and calls for reform and revolution were heard across the country. In 1912 two thousand years of imperial rule in China ended. Republic of China (1912–1949) In 1912, the Republic of China was established, heralding the end of the Qing Dynasty. Another attempt to reestablish an empirical regime failed, leaving China politically fragmented. Its government was perhaps internationally recognized but virtually powerless. "Warlords in various regions exercised actual control over their respective territories." The nation was unified again in 1920 and a program with the aim of transforming China into a modern, democratic state was implemented. Political tutelage meant one-party rule by the Kuomintang. "The Sino-Japanese War of 1937–1945 (part of World War II) forced an uneasy alliance between the Nationalists and the Communists as well as causing around 20 million Chinese civilian deaths. With the surrender of Japan in 1945, China emerged victorious but financially drained. The continued distrust between the Nationalists and the Communists led to the resumption of the Chinese Civil War. In 1947, constitutional rule was established, but because of the ongoing Civil War many provisions of the ROC constitution were never implemented on the mainland." Post Civil War (1949–present) "After its victory in the Chinese Civil War, the Communist Party of China (CCP) led by Mao Zedonggained control of most of Mainland China. in 1949 they established the People's Republic of China as a Socialist State headed by a "Democratic Dictatorship" with the CCP as the only legal political party. The central government of the Chinese Nationalist Party was forced to retreat to the island of Taiwan that it had occupied at the end of World War II, and moved the ROC government there. Major armed hostilities ceased in 1950 but no peace treaty has been signed. An estimated 36 million died during the Great Chinese Famine of 1958–61" "After the Chinese Civil War, mainland China underwent a series of disruptive socioeconomic movements starting in the late 1950s with the Great Leap Forward and continuing in the 1960s with the Cultural Revolution that left much of its education system and economy in shambles.Post-1978 reforms on the mainland have led to some relaxation of control over many areas of society. However, the PRC government still has almost absolute control over politics, and it continually seeks to eradicate what it perceives as threats to the social, political and economic stability of the country. Examples include the fight against terrorism, jailing of political opponents and journalists, custody regulation of the press, regulation of religion, and suppression of independence/secessionist movements. In 1989, the student protests at Tiananmen Square were violently put to an end by the Chinese military after 15 days of martial law. In 1997, Hong Kong was ceded to the PRC by the United Kingdom, and in 1999, Macau was handed over by Portugal."

Today "Mainland China is administered by the People's Republic of China—a one-party state under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party—while the island of Taiwan and surrounding islands are administered by the Republic of China—a democratic multi-party state. "

After the founding of the People's Republic in 1949, both states claimed to be the sole legitimate ruler of all of China. "The People's Republic of China claims to have succeeded the Republic of China as the sole legitimate governing authority of all of China, which, from the official viewpoint of the People's Republic of China, includes the island of Taiwan. Over the last 50 years, both the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China have used diplomatic and economic means to compete for recognition in the international arena. Because most international, intergovernmental organizations observe the One-China policy of the People's Republic of China, the PRC has been able to pressure organizations, such as the World Health Organization and the International Olympic Committee, to refuse to officially recognize the Republic of China. Due to the One-China policy, states around the world are pressured to refuse, or to cut off diplomatic relations with the Republic of China. As a result, 23 U.N. member states currently maintain official diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, while the vast majority of U.N. member states maintain official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China."

What can we learn from the Chinese history?

Environment

Short answers about the different questions...for more details, go to Key Environmental Drivers - China in 2030

What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?
The driving factors behind China’s environmental problems include an increase in the number of households, increased urbanization, explosive economic growth, failure to execute environmental policy, lack of public awareness and prioritization of economic growth over sustainability. The number of households in China has grown almost three times as fast as its population during 1985-2000. The average household has decreased from 4.5 to 3.5 people and because smaller households consume more resources per person, China’s rapid increase in household number and reduction in household size have had significant environmental consequences. China is also becoming more urban. From 1952 to 2003, the country's proportionate urban population tripled from 13% to 39%. (Liu & Diamond, 2005)

Another driving force behind China's current environmental situation is due to its economic growth. China is a large consumer of fertilizer and pesticides. The consumption of these industrial and agricultural products leads to air, water and land pollution and other forms of environmental damage. With increasing affluence, China’s per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs increased four-, four- and eightfold, respectively, between 1978 and 2002. This means more agricultural wastes, animal droppings, fish droppings, fish food and fertilizer for aquaculture, tending to increase terrestrial and aquatic pollution. Additionally, China’s transportation network and number of vehicles have grown explosively. In 1994, after the number of motor vehicles had increased to six times the 1980 figure, China decided to make car production one of its four ‘pillar industries’ to stimulate economic growth, with the goal of increasing production (especially of cars) by another factor of four by 2010. This would make China the world’s third-largest vehicle manufacturer, after the United States and Japan — with obvious implications for highway expansion at the expense of arable land, greater dependence on imported oil, and the recently improved but still poor air quality in cities such as Beijing. Further, much of China’s economy — such as coal-mining and cement, paper and chemical production — still rests on outdated, inefficient or polluting technology, and overall industrial energy efficiency is only half that of the developed world. Coal is the country’s primary energy source and the main cause of its air pollution and acid rain. Although solar and wind power are potentially significant renewable energy sources, hydroelectricity will become more important over the next decade, particularly with the expected completion of the controversial 18.2-gigawatt Three Gorges Dam project in 2009. China is hosting the world’s three biggest development projects, all of which are expected to cause severe environmental problems. The Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River — the world’s largest dam, begun in 1993 and projected for completion in 2009 —aims to provide electricity, flood control and improved navigation at a cost of $30 billion, social costs of uprooting millions of people, and environmental costs associated with landslides, water pollution, soil erosion, biodiversity losses and the disruption of the ecosystem of the world’s third-longest river. Still more expensive is the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, which began in 2002 but is not scheduled for completion until around 2050. It is projected to cost $59 billion, to spread pollution, and to cause water imbalance in the Yangtze. Even that project will be exceeded by the ongoing development of western China, comprising over half of the country’s land area and viewed by China’s leaders as the key to national development.(Liu & Diamond, 2005)

Although China has made strides in writing environmental protection policy, the country still lags in execution of these policies. China declared environmental protection a basic national principle in 1983, laid out a broad strategy to achieve sustainable development in 1994, and in 1996 developed its first five-year plan on environmental protection. In 2003, the government proposed a new development concept emphasizing humanism and attempting to achieve sustainable development and harmony between man and nature, as well as coordinated socioeconomic progress among various regions and with foreign countries. In reality, although there has been much effort to control environmental degradation, economic development often takes priority at the local level and is still the main criterion for judging government officials’ performance. (Liu & Diamond, 2005) In 2006, premier Wen Jiabao listed three changes that China needs: to move from a GDP-centered model of growth to one that balances economy and environment and seeks the development of environmental protection; to change from a view of environmental protection as an obstacle to economic growth to the development of economy and environment in tandem; and to institute a range of methods to help resolve environmental problems. (Jun, 2007)

Public environmental awareness is low, in part because China’s investment in education is less than half that of developed countries as a proportion of gross national production. Despite holding 20% of the world’s population, China’s educational funding accounts for only 1% of world investment. Most parents cannot afford to send their children to university, because one year’s tuition would consume the average salary of one city worker or three rural workers. When there are conflicts between environmental protection and economic development, the former often loses to the latter. Economic performance often overshadows environmental protection as a criterion for selection and promotion of government officials.

What impact have these key drivers had on the environment?

The impact that China’s environmental degradation has on its people can be broken up into three categories: socioeconomic losses, health costs, and the effects of more frequent and damaging natural disasters.

Socioeconomic losses: The losses from pollution and ecological damage ranged from 7% to 20% of GDP every year in the past two decades. Besides heavy economic losses, pollution and resource competition have triggered numerous social clashes in China, including 18 conflicts over forest resource management in southwestern China. Similarly, water shortages in the Yellow River have triggered ‘water wars’ between people on the river’s upper and lower reaches, between people on opposite sides of the river, and between backers of industrial, agricultural and ecological needs.

Health Costs: Environmental pollution imposes further costs through its impact on human health. From 1996 to 2001, China’s spending on public health increased by 80%, or more than 13% per year (from $35 billion in 1996 to $63 billion in 2001), in part to cope with environmental problems. About 300,000 deaths per year are attributed to air pollution. Average blood lead levels in Chinese city dwellers are nearly double those considered to be dangerously high and to endanger childrens’ mental development. The risk of respiratory disease increases with the outdoor concentration of total suspended particles. Even short-term exposure to air pollution can result in low infant weight and increased morbidity and mortality.

Natural Disasters: China is noted for the frequency, number, extent and impact of its natural disasters. Human actions have made some of these more frequent, especially dust storms, landslides, droughts and floods. Overgrazing, erosion, grassland degradation, desertification and partly human-caused droughts have led to more frequent, and more severe, dust storms. From AD 300 to 1949, dust storms struck northwestern China on average once every 31 years; since 1990 there has been one almost every year. The huge dust storm of 5 May 1993 killed a hundred people. Recent increases in droughts are believed to be due to deforestation that has interrupted the water cycle, and perhaps also due to the decrease in surface water resulting from draining and overuse of lakes and wetlands. Droughts damage about 160,000 km2 of cropland each year, double the area damaged in the 1950s. Flooding has greatly increased because of deforestation; the 1996 and 1998 floods were the worst in recent memory. Alternating droughts and floods have become more frequent and are more damaging than either disaster alone, because droughts destroy vegetation, and then flooding of bare ground produces worse erosion.

What are China's most significant environmental obstacles going forward?

China's largest obstacles to improve the environment lie in the failure to execute environmental policies, prioritizing economic growth over environmental protection, a lack of public awareness, and its continued economic growth. China has developed numerous environmental laws and policies, but most of them are just on paper. Chinese environmental laws and regulations were written largely piecemeal, lack effective implementation and evaluation of long-term consequences, and need a systems approach. Environmental protection agencies lack sufficient authority, financial resources and manpower. Environmental awareness is also low among the general public, government officials and business people. Most people think that environmental protection harms economic growth and do not recognize that environmental problems have already caused huge economic losses, severe social conflicts, enormous health costs and increased "natural" disasters (such as dust storms, floods, droughts). Furthermore, many technologies in China are outdated, inefficient and highly polluting. Finally, China's continued economic growth and changing lifestyles will continue to be a large obstacle in improving the environment. Although per capita consumption in China is still much less than that in developed countries, increases in consumption are accelerating. Diet is shifting more toward meat and away from grain. More cars are pouring into newly constructed and rapidly expanding highways. Divorce has become increasingly common, resulting in more and smaller households and thus lower efficiency of resource use. In 2004 alone, over 1.6 million couples split up. (PBS, 2006)

How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future?

If economic growth, rather than environmental protection or sustainability, continues to be a priority for China then the future looks bleak. Despite a fall in population growth rate, the number of Chinese is projected to reach almost 1.5 billion by 2030. The projected drop in household size to 2.2 people by the year 2030 alone would add over 250 million new households — more than the total in the entire Western Hemisphere in 2000 — even if China’s population size remained constant. These additional households will add to the inefficient use of energy and continue degradation of the environment.

The Chinese environment also faces many specific dangers. The number of cars is rising, and croplands and natural wetlands are disappearing. The harmful consequences of this will accumulate. With rising affluence, and hence meat and fish consumption, environmental problems from meat production and aquaculture, such as pollution from animal and fish droppings and eutrophication from uneaten fish food, will increase.

Potentially more important than all of these other impacts is a further consequence of China’s having the world’s largest population and fastest-growing economy. Total production or consumption is the product of population size times per capita production or consumption rate. China’s total production and consumption are already high, because of its huge population, despite its per capita rates still being very low. But China is rapidly becoming a developed-world economy. If China’s per capita consumption rates do reach such levels, and even if populations, production and consumption rates everywhere else remained unchanged, those rate increases alone would translate into a 94% increase in total world production or consumption in industrial metals, and a 106% increase in the case of oil. In other words, China’s achievement of developed-world consumption standards will approximately double the world’s human resource use and environmental impact. But it is doubtful whether even the current human resource use and impact on the world can be sustained. Something has to give, or change. This is why China’s environmental problems are the world’s.

What will China's environmental policy be going forward?

Recognizing the environmental challenges the country faces, the Chinese government is hoping to build an environmentally-friendly society, and has set very ambitious environmental goals. By 2010, China aims to basically control the trend of environmental deterioration, improve environmental quality in some key regions and key cities, reduce the total emission of major pollutants by 10 percent, lower energy consumption per unit GDP output by 20 percent from the 2005 level, maintain cropland and increase forest cover from 18 percent to 20 percent. By 2020, China plans to significantly improve environmental quality and ecological conditions. Still, China's economic goal is to double its GDP by 2020, and we've seen from the past two decades that economic goals tend to be well surpassed while environmental goals are left largely unattended to. (PBS, 2006)

China is increasingly assuming responsibilities on the world stage by participating in environmental treaties. Many environmental laws, policies and regulations are being developed or improved. The Chinese public’s environmental awareness is rising. China has been pushing hard for cleaner production and sustainable development. Some environmental and product standards have reached developed-world levels. Energy intensity is declining. Technologies for production and for treating environmental waste are improving. To reduce air pollution in Beijing, the city government ordered that vehicles be converted to allow the use of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. China has phased out leaded petrol in little more than a year, something that took Europe and America many years to achieve. New cars must meet the exacting emissions standards prevailing in Europe. Since 1990, China has combated desertification on 24,000 km2 of land by reforestation and fixation of sand dunes. The Grain-to-Green program, begun in 2000, gives grain and cash subsidies to farmers who convert cropland to forest or grassland, and is reducing the use of environmentally sensitive steep hillsides for agriculture. By the end of 2003, 79,000 km2 of cropland had been returned to forest or grassland. By the end of this program in 2010, approximately 130,000 km2 of cropland are expected to be converted, making it one of the largest conservation programs in the world. China is also designing and adopting a green accounting system that includes environmental costs in the calculation of gross domestic product (or Green GDP).

Driving Forces

New Forces

The following forces were determined by our group:

Desertification of China: Amount of desert in China is increasing by 900 sq miles every year!
Rising costs of labour in China: China is beginning to become less competitive in relation to its regional peers due to rising labour costs, as Chinese workers begin to demand greater wage increases

Existing Forces

The following forces are already existing on the wiki that are explicitly related to China.

Political Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Chinese people's increasing leisure time

Scenarios

References

News and Journal Articles

Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment
PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf

Future of China in 2030

Contents

Group Members

Introduction

Research Questions

Government and Politics

Economics

Society and Culture

Environment

Driving Forces

New Forces

Existing Forces

Political Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Scenarios

References

News and Journal Articles

Previous Scenarios

Recommended Reading

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Future of China in 2030

Group Members

Introduction

Research Questions

Government and Politics

Economics

Society and Culture

Environment

Driving Forces

New Forces

Existing Forces

Political Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Scenarios

References

News and Journal Articles

Previous Scenarios

Recommended Reading

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