Geopolitics
Power is moving upstream, from exploration to reserve holders. Still a lot of money to be made so pressure expected from NOCs to continue production
demand
- increasing demand for petroleum in developing nations, particularly China and India;[2] - In fact, 24% of the oil consumed in 2004 went to the United States alone, though by 2007 this had dropped to 21% of world oil consumed [2] - Consumption in the twentieth century has been abundantly pushed by automobile growth ; the 1985-2003 oil glut even fuelled the sales of low economy vehicles (SUVs) in OECD countries. In 2008,the economic crisis seems to have some impact on the sales of such vehicles ; still, the 2008 oilconsumption shows a small increase. The BRIC countries might also kick in, as China briefly was the first automobile market in december 2009 [2] - Kopenhagen round, Kyoto protocol . Developed countries are focussing on efficiency and alternatives. Todays biggest demand areas (US, Europe, Japan) are frontrunners in deploying test areas for e.g. electrical cars. Preparing themselves to be less dependant of oil. - China is “buying” Africa, not minding social issues
supply
- The US is accused to “secretly” maintain its national reserves in order to fuel its economy in case of global shortage [6]. - Also more and more fields are found close to the US off the Mexican coasts.[10] - STILL, THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS EMERGED AS A MAJOR AREA OF INTEREST FOR THE WESTERN OIL COMPANIES THAT HAVE BEEN LOCKED OUT OF MANY OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST UNTAPPED RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND RUSSIA.[10]
inbalance in supply and demand
Sources
[1] http://www.responsiblenergy.org/oil.asp
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum
[3] Shell energy scenarios 2050
[4] http://www.energybulletin.net/node/20140
[5] http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59991
[6] http://www.rense.com/general70/doro.htm
[7] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8233504.stm
[8] http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/09/24/a-good-year-for-oil-discoveries/
[9] http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2009/New-Oil-Discoveries-You-Should-Know-OXY-BP-PBR0914.aspx
[10] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125189057895179241.html
[11] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/business/energy-environment/24oil.html