The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020
Introduction
This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 6 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:
The Future of Individual Mobility in North East Europe in 2020
Research Questions
Economy
- What is the projected growth of this region?
- What drives this growth/decline?
- What impact does economic growth/downturn have on government spending for this matter?
- What are the economic uncertainties?
- Will oil prices have an impact on the economical development of the region? Why & How?
- How would the economical cycles of growth and recession influence the way we travel?
- What is the projected change in demographics? And what economical impact would that bring?
- Is environment going to be more or less relevant within the different scenarios of economical growth?
- What is the impact of a change in world trade/economy on mobility?
- How will technology affect individual mobility in the next 15 years? - Claudio
- How and where will people spend their leisure time in 2020? - Cuno
- What will be the impact of new technology on time spent in the office? - Eric
- What are current plans of the government regarding major infrastructure projects? - Radjes
- What will be the impact of oil demand and oil prices on individual mobility? - Radjes
- How will an expanded EU with fading borders impact mobility? - Claudio
- If one has to choose between food and shelter versus mobility. What will it be? - Cuno
- What efforts are taken on a political level to influence mobility? (infrastructure, funding, policies) - Radjes
- What is the impact of a change in world trade on mobility? - Radjes
- Will urbanization be ruled by the same principles of today? How will architecture change the landscape of office, home and shopping area? And how will that impact mobility? - Claudio
- Will increased welfare of the individual create an environment that stimulates individual or group mobility? - Claudio
- What would be the impact of the threat of terrorism on infrastructure and control and how would it affect mobility? - Cuno
- How will changes in the demographics of the (expanding) EU impact mobility? - Eric
- Where would be the most congested areas in 2020 - Radjes
- Why would people still find the need to move? - Eric
- What influence on mobility will have the strong consolidation in the European industry? - Claudio
- What will be the influence of more or less free time have on mobility? - Eric
- How will specific taxes influence the mobility of individuals? - Cuno
- How would the economical cycles of growth and recession influence the whay we travel? - Radjes
- Will decentralisation of political decision making improve the mobility issues in urbanised areas? - Cuno
- How will the balance between preservation of the environment be balanced with the increasing need for mobility? - Claudio
- What will be the impact of todays pension system on tomorrows wellfare of the elderly? - Cuno
- What's the cultural impact on mobility? - Eric
- What means of transportation will be used in 2020? - Radjes
- How will environmental stress influence mobility? - Eric
Driving Forces
Economic:
Increasing Demand for Oil
Expected Decrease of Oil Reserves
Slowing Rise of Living Standards In West-Europe
Technological:
Shift to Alternative Energy Sources
Increasing use of broadband internet services with 3G mobile phone
Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop
The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates
Societal:
Movement Towards World Unification
Urbanization and Social Status
Aging population
Increasing Threat of Terrorism
Individualisation-'single person households'
Digital Literacy
Environmental:
Global Warming
Introduction of greenhouse gases emissions trading
Political:
Government Investment in Infrastructure Improvement
Increasing Environmental Taxes
Tax Shift from Ownership to Usage
Links
Note to group: please add your links to secondary research here:
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat: Nota Mobiliteit
National Intelligence Council:
International Futures Model, Global Trends 2020 and Global Trends 2015
For a better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem, see Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
RIVM: Effects of a compact urbanisation scenario on passenger mobility
[1]
Speech van de minister van Verkeer en Waterstaat, mevrouw T. Netelenbos, voor de opening van de manifestatie Mobiliteit als Uitdaging in Rotterdam op woensdag 9 juni 1999.
[2]
Een scenario studie: Omgevingsscenario's en lange termijn verkenning 1995-2020 die momenteel voor Nederland door het CPB wordt gedaan-Radjes:[3]
'Future of the Car' talk highlights MISTI week - [4]
'The future of mobility' Three debates organised by the Transport Research Group at the Bloomberg Auditorium, London - [5]
'A single European Sky' & 'European Aereonautics: EU Vision 2020' - [6]
'The future of mobility: Nokia showcases latest 3G, multimedia and enterprise innovations at CeBIT 2005' - [7]
'The Future of Mobility' Alliance for Global Suistainability - [8]
'Fuel Cells is the Future of Mobility' - [9]
"Road Pricing" Contribution by Plank Holland - [10]
World Economic Forum - Global Risks Topology [11]
World Economic Forum - Risk Report 2005
[12]
Rics Foundation - 2020 Visions of the Future
[13]
World Tourism Organisation - Changes in leisure time
[14]
CBS - Scenarios for The Netherlands [15]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implications_of_a_peak_oil
Other
Both the in class presented and the original messy systems diagrams from the Blackboard group discussion on Friday sept 29, 2005:
Media:Systems_Diagram_Future_of_Mobility_Scenario_v0.3.ppt
Results interview with Mr. Jeeninga, ECN, Petten