Future of China in 2030

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The content of this page has been prepared between September and October 2009 by:
Guy Kedar
Gerrit Ledderhof
Chia-Wei Lee
Johanna Little
Geoff Spielman

Introduction

China is more than just the world's most populous country. It is a vast land with a rich history and strong cultural identity. China's strong economic growth in recent years has put it in a unique position on the world stage, and the future of China, while uncertain, will have major consequences not just for itself but for the rest of world. Although much has been said over the last few years about this region, there are still many interesting and important aspects uncovered and unexplored.

This page is devoted to exploring potential futures for China in 2030.

Scenarios

Scenario Stories

The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for China in 2030:

• An Inconvenient Truth

Environmental disaster

• Panda Power

Birth of a superpower

• Land of a Hundred Kingdoms

Dissolving of an empire

• Ciao Mao

A foray into democracy

Scenario Tree

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  Final tree

• 

  1st draft

Systems Diagram

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  Systems diagram picture 1

• 

  Systems diagram picture 2

Timelines

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  Timeline for Inconvenient Truth Scenario

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  Timeline for Panda Power Scenario

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  Timeline for Land of a Hundred Kings Scenario

• 

  Timeline for Ciao Mao Scenario

Driving Forces

New Forces

The following forces were determined to be of interest based on our research:

Political Driving Forces

• Decreasing acceptance of central government in China

Environmental Driving Forces

• Increase in the number of households in China
• Increasing water scarcity in China
• Desertification of China
• Increased private sector in China

Societal Driving Forces

• Increase in travel infrastructure in China
• Strict internet censorship in China

Economic Driving Forces

• Rising costs of labour in China
• After effect of the 2008 economic crisis

Technological Driving Forces

• Increase of information sharing through Web 2.0
• The "flattening" of the world

Existing Forces

The following forces are already existing on the wiki and are explicitly related to China.

Political Driving Forces

• An Open China
• Easing restrictions in China
• Economic Growth in China
• Strike in China
• Host to the 2008 Olympic Games Beijing,china

Economic Driving Forces

• Chinese Families' economic condition
• Economic Growth in China
• Huge difference between the western and the eastern part of China
• Energy crisis in Asia
• The Rise of BRIC Economies
• China's economic productivity growth
• China's accumulated capital as the driving force of the economic growth
• China becoming the largest economy
• Increasing income disparity in China

Societal Driving Forces

• Chinese people's increasing leisure time
• Population of China

Environmental Driving Forces

• Increased environmental degradation in China

Research Questions

• China by the Numbers
• Numbers that Matter Presentation

To begin our research, we generated a list of specific questions we were interested in answering on our quest to learn more about China. The questions were loosely grouped into four areas: government & politics, economics, society & culture, and environment. Follow the links to learn the answers.

Government and Politics

• What is the reality of the current political system (is it really communist)?
• What is current foreign policy?
• What is China’s sphere of influence?
• Who does China currently consider as allies/enemies?
• Could China survive democracy?
• Will china join ASEAN?
• What is the role of women in Chinese government?
• How does China view its role within the world? Superpower?

Economics

• What is the industrial structure of China by GDP?
• What is the composition of labor force by occupation in China?
• What are the positive performances of China in economic fields in recent years?
• What are the main problems in China's economy?
• What kind of economic development challenges does the Chinese government face?
• What industries will be the biggest source for economic growth going forward?
• Will China become a post-industrialized society in the near future and if so how will it make this transition?:
• What are the implications if China’s growth slows (i.e., potential starvation etc.)?
• Will China continue to be dependent on other countries for economic growth or will domestic demand increase in the near future?

Society and Culture

• What is China's size?
• What is China's climate?
• What can be learned on China through its national symbols?
• Are there any current issues that are causing social unrest?
• How will the income disparity in China affect its future?
• Will the growing difference in ratio of men to women have a negative impact on China’s future?
• What aspects of China’s culture will be the strongest driving forces in the country’s future?
• How developed is the Chinese Medical system?
• Chinese Dynasties – Qin to Qing
• Did Civil/independence wars play a role in Chinese history?
• What was the origin of the rise of the the communist party?
• How did Taiwan form?
• Contemporary politics and events
• How open is China for tourism?
• What is the ages breakdown of th epoulation?
• How big is the difference in numbers between Men and Women?
• History - a brief

Environment

The below links are the short answers for each question. For more information, please select the following link: Environmental Research Questions - China in 2030

• What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?
• What impact have these key drivers had on the environment?
• What impact have these poor environmental conditions had on China?
• What are China's most significant environmental obstacles going forward?
• How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future (and the world's future)?
• What will China's environmental policy be going forward?

References

Websites

1. Political History: http://acc6.its.brooklyn.cuny.edu/~phalsall/texts/chinhist.html
2. General History: http://www-chaos.umd.edu/history/toc.html

Videos

1. Frontline. 2006. Young and Restless in China.
2. Washington Post. 2006. Redefining China's Family.
3. Financial Times. 2009. NATHAN ANDERSON, UBS, on the future of China economic policy Video.

News and Journal Articles

1. Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment
   
2. PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
3. Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf
4. People's Daily Online. 11 September 2009. Will China's economic growth change the world economic pattern? Available: http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90780/91344/6755577.html
5. Hilton Yip, The China Post. 26 September 2009. A whole new world ahead. Available: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/art/books/2009/09/26/226517/A-whole.htm

Previous Scenarios

1. Future of China in 2020
2. The Future of the Internet in China 2015
3. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
4. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
5. http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf

Recommended Reading

Can't get enough of China? Here is a list of interested things to read, watch, or see. Be careful, you might learn something.

1. Shen, Sandy. (2008). Innovation Is Reshaping China's Economy. Gartner. G00157000.
2. Motley Fool. 2008. Will China Starve the World?
3. The New York Times. 2008. Missile-ready China warns U.S. against plan to destroy spy satellite
4. Wired. 2008. How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 1)
5. Pei, Minxin. (2007). Corruption Threatens China’s Future. Carnegie: Endowment for International Peace. Policy Brief 55
6. Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian Development Bank. November.
7. Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
8. Zhang, Zeng, Mako & Seward. 2009. Promoting Enterprise-Led Innovation in China. The World Bank.
9. Miaojie, Yu. 2009. Global Times. Domestic markets can't sustain China's growth
10. The Economist. 2009. China and the West: A time for muscle-flexing
11. National Geographic. 2008. China's Journey
12. Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing Technological Innovation. To be presented at “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
13. Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
14. Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005. Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints. RAND Corporation.
15. Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
16. Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.
17. Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
18. UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment Research. 2005. How to Think About China. Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong. 6 January.
19. Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004. New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
20. Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
21. Clifford Coonan.10 Mar.2006. "China’s Boom is Killing Sea That Gives It Life, Warn Scientists." Independent News and Media Limited.
22. Wenping, He. 2007. The Balancing Act of China's Africa Policy.