Oil Production 2030
Team Members
- Mihai Andreoiu
- Michael Aouad
- Joost d'Hooghe
- Phil Poetter
- Shirley Yuen
New Driving Forces
- World population growth
- Open decentralized electricity networks
- Continental Protectionism
- Growth of developing markets
- OPEC's Role
- Remaining Oil Reserves
- Environmental Impact
- Global Warming
- Renewable sources of energy
- Coal Seam Gas
- Drilling Technology
- Increasing Efficiency in Energy Use
- Increase of International Cooperation in Energy Policy
- Proliferation of extremist / dictatorial regimes
Edited Driving Forces
Research Questions
- Will strong political and religious agendas reflect in 'oil politics'?
- Oil, as a strategic asset as well as an energy source. Will there be global political alliances between oil producing and non-producing countries?
- Has OPEC gotten its act together in order to tighten control on oil supplies?
- Will there be strong global government regulations regarding fossil fuel usage?
- How successfull have international agreements (e.g. Kyoto Protocol) been in decreasing energy use?
- How is the world economy developing?
- How is the economy in the emerging markets developing? are they going through the same industrailization process like developed countries?
- Are renewable energy sources economically viable?
- Will consumers demand green energy supply due to ongoing global warming?
- Will the growth of the population continue till 2030?
- Do oil (and gas) continue to be the major source of energy?
- Will the global energy consumption decrease due to improvements in more efficient use of energy?
- What are the chances of finding oil in not yet explored locations such as deep see regions?
- Will improvement in drilling technology increase the oil production?
- What are the alternative energy sources?
- Will changes in mobility change the use of energy?
Research Topics
- Oil Production
- Oil and Global Warming
- The Big Crew Change
- Peak Oil
- Efficiency in energy usage
- Energy Demand
- New Finds
- Geopolitics
Scenarios
Following are the 4 scenarios that have been developed for 'oil production 2030':
Systems diagram
First draft systems diagram
Second draft systems diagram
Third draft using mind map
Resources
- BP - Oil reserves / Statistics 2008
- Booz&co - The Upstream Survivors 2009
- European Central Bank - Assessing the factors behind oil price changes / Working Paper Series; Jan-2008
- Global oil reserves and fossil fuel consumption
- International Energy Agency - Oil Market Report
- Renewables Global Status Report 2009 update
- Shell Scenarios
- Schlumberger
- Schlumberger - Andrew Gould at Simmons & Company International European Investor Conference
- Schlumberger - Highlighting Heavy Oil
- Simmons & Company International - Do Fossil Fuels have a sustainable future?
- Simmons & Company International - Speeches and papers
- United Nations University - different scenarios and research on global warming and the global energy outlook till 2030
- International Energy Agency - oil production in 2030 outlook