Difference between revisions of "Future of China in 2030"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Line 27: Line 27:


;What is China’s sphere of influence?
;What is China’s sphere of influence?
:
:China has a growing sphere of influence in its bordering nations. It is also extending to African nations as China searches for access to more resources.


;Who does China currently consider as allies/enemies?
;Who does China currently consider as allies/enemies?

Revision as of 21:13, 15 September 2009

Group Members

Guy Keidar
Gerrit Ledderhof
Chia Wei Lee
Johanna Little
Geoff Spielman

Introduction

This page is the main source for the scenario set Future of China in 2030.

For page editing help, the help page at MediaWiki is a good start.

If you have any comments for us, please put them here so we can read them. We welcome any input!

  • You guys might want to look at articles published by Bobo Lo, he writes on Russia but also Russo-Chinese relations. Andrei.

Research Questions

China by the Numbers

Government and Politics

What is the reality of the current political system (is it really communist)?
China is operating under yet another strong centralized government as it has been for the past 4 thousand years. It is not really communist, just a different form of strong centralized government.
What is current foreign policy?
Since the more conservative elements of the communist party leadership have taken over, China has made a very concerted effor to increase relations with the rest of the world. It has developed strong trade ties, especially with the US.
What is China’s sphere of influence?
China has a growing sphere of influence in its bordering nations. It is also extending to African nations as China searches for access to more resources.
Who does China currently consider as allies/enemies?
How does China view its role within the world? Superpower?
Could China survive democracy?
Since the conservative elements of the communist party took power, the country has moved closer and closer to democratization. This can be seen in privitazation of land, increased benefits for better working performance. The concessions were made to help China rapidly catch-up with the industrail nations. While it is questionable if the voting system will work at present the country seems to be moving in a democratic direction.
Will china join ASEAN?
China has been entering talks to with ASEAN to improve relations
What is the role of women in Chinese government
There are 21 Women in senior government roles, however, non are in the Politburo.

Economics

What industries will be the biggest source for economic growth going forward?
Will China become a post-industrialized society in the near future and if so how will it make this transition?
What are the implications if China’s growth slows (i.e., potential starvation etc.)?
Will China continue to be dependent on other countries for economic growth or will domestic demand increase in the near future?

Society and Culture

Are there any current issues that are causing social unrest?
How will the income disparity in China affect its future?
Will the growing difference in ratio of men to women have a negative impact on China’s future?
What aspects of China’s culture will be the strongest driving forces in the country’s future?

Land and Climate China is located on the western shore of the Pacific Ocean and enjoys both coastline and inland landscapes. The country's huge size, some 9.6 million squared kilometers, implies it has a continental climate and a span of nearly 50 degrees. Most of the land is located in a temperate zone, while the north is frigid and the south tropical and sub tropical. The country's wide range of climates includes areas that have long winters and no summer, areas that have only summer and such that experience distinctive seasonal changes. Monsoons are common around throughout the country and change directions between summer and winter. "From November to April, the dry and cold winter monsoons blow from the Siberia and Mongolian Plateau to China, resulting in cold and dry winters in north China. From May to October, the warm and humid summer monsoons from the seas in the east and south meet the cold air from the north, resulting in plentiful rainfall which accounts for 80% of the total annual precipitation. Monsoons are therefore the major source of rainfall in China throughout the year". As suggested above, average temperature range throughout the land and vary from 25 degrees celcius minus five degrees celcius.



National symbols: Underlying characteristics of the Chinese culture can be found in its national symbols. The Chinese flag is red on which upper left five yellow stars are presented. The small four ones represent Chinese four social classes – the worker, the farmer, the petty bourgeoisie and the national bourgeoisie. The stars are surrounding a bigger star, that represents the communist party and the structure represents the unity of the Chinese people around the party. The red colour is said to represent the revolution and the yellow stands for golden brilliant rays (as well as the Chinese skin colour). Chinas national anthem is the "March of the Volunteers". The anthem was composed after the Chinese-Japanies incident in 1931 and reflected a strong belief and confidence of the Chinese in defeating the invading Japanese. Along the years the anthem was claimed to arouse patriotism, express the morale of the Chinese in revolution and act as a reminder that danger lies also in times of peace. The national emblem demonstrates richness and grandeur of the People's Republic of China. It presents the Tiananmen Square, were the ceremony of the founding of the P.R.C. was held. A gear wheel and grain represent workers and farmers. The five stars from the flag are a reminder of the unity of the people around the party. it suggests that it s a socialist state that is led by the working class and based upon the alliance between workers and peasants. The national flower, the Tree Peony, is also said to represent the characters of the Chinese people. How could these symbols reflect in times of changes and enable or disable driving forces?


Tourism Chinas landscape, history and culture turn it to a touristic attraction. According to the forecasting of WTTC, Chinese tourism industry is supposed annually rising 10.4% in the coming decade (years?). It is estimated by the World Tourism Organization that China will be the world’s largest tourist destination and the fourth largest country in tourists output by 2020. Tourism can act as a driver for penetration of information and cultural diversity into China


Medical system Medicine facilities and quality varies between big cities and rural areas. Larger cities operate western style medical facilities (hosting local as well as international staff). Rural areas may enjoy only limited services. After the founding of New China in 1949 the government put emphasis on improving medical services in rural areas, in preventing diseases and in giving a boost to traditional Chinese medicine. "A nationwide public health network has now been basically formed and an adequate contingent of medical personnel has been established" "By the end of 1999, there were 310,000 public health institutions (including clinics) with 3.16 million beds, of which 2.93 million beds were in hospitals and clinics. There were 4.46 million medical personnel, including 2.05 million doctors and 1.25 million nurses. The public health institutions, hospital and clinic beds and medical personnel increased by 83 percent, 58 percent and 81 percent, respectively, compared with those in 1978". "Traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine have been promoted simultaneously. The incidence of many epidemic diseases has dropped considerably, and some endemic diseases are now under control. Rural health work has been improved, greatly contributing to the overall health of the population. The average life expectancy of Chinese people, the death rate of infants and childbirth death rates have almost reached the levels of developed countries."

"The Ministry of Health classify the hospitals into three classes--one, two, three (3 referring to the highest level of integrated hospitals), and each class is divided into three grades- first, second third. The first-class hospitals are mainly sanitation hospitals which provide preventions, medical treatment, health care and healing services. The second-class hospitals are regional hospitals which provide comprehensive health services. The three-class hospitals mainly provide high professional and specialized medical treatments and health services. Most of the hospitals are funded by the government and are non-profit institutions. A small number of hospitals and clinics are organized by the collective and individuals. Besides, some hospitals are set up for foreigners. Foreigners can go to see doctors at any medical institutions, and enjoy the same cost standard as the Chinese residents. Generally speaking, the charges of these hospitals with better conditions are much higher".

The country's size, demographic characteristics and climate suggest a major threat from an epidemic that can severely affect the market. See also the section regarding environment conditions.

Population China is the most populated country in the world. How much inhabitants? How fast does it increase? The country has a high density of population with an average population density of 135 people for every square kilometer. It spreads unbalanced with high densely coastal area in the (135 people for square kilometer on average), mid region with population density of over 200 people per square kilometer and plateaus in the west area with less than ten people for every square kilometer on average.

Elevate on birth control and its effect on population growth and on men-women ratio + more? Education - Population quality (educated) has improved in the last ___ years. Of "the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and active army of Chinese mainland, 45.71 million have had a college education ( above junior college education ); 141.09 million have had a high school education ( Vocational secondary school education is included.); 429.89 million have had a middle school education; and 451.91 million have had an elementary school education." According to the fourth national population census, the numbers of people who received education, in every 100,00 people, are: people who have had college education – up from 1422 to 3611; people who have had high school education - up from 8039 to 11146; people who have had middle school education - up from 23344 to 33961; people who have had elementary school education is - down from 37057 to35701; number of the illiterate people ( people of 15 and over who is unable to read or can read a little ) is 85.07 million – a decrease from 15.88% to 6.72% Aging - The progress of the aging of population has been quickened and its structure has changed. "People from 0 to 14 numbers 289.79 million and makes up 22.89% of the total population, and is reduced by 4.8 percent, compared with the population census in 1990. People from 15 to 64 numbers 887.93 million, and makes up 70.15% of the total population. People of 65 and over numbers 88.11 million and makes up 6.96% of the total population, and increases by 1.39 percent, compared with the population census in 1990." Since the reform and opening up, "with the rapid development of economy and society, the great improvement of people's standard of living and medical cause, especially the rapid decrease of population growth causes the quickened progress of the aging of population." Men – Women ratio – "The ratio of men to women is 106.74. Of the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and active army of Chinese mainland, men numbers 653.55 million and makes up 51.63% of the total population; women numbers 612.28 million and makes up 48.37% of the total population. The sex ratio ( taking women as 100, the ratio of men to women ) is 106.74." (Quotes until this stage are attributed to http://www.chinatravel.com/facts/general-china/)

History The formulation of the Chinese nation has gone through severe changes throughout the history, the most recent of which as a result of the last Chinese Civil War (1949). The outcome of the war was the creation of two entities: the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China. The first controls the main land, Hong Kong and Macau and the latter has control of Taiwan and related islands.

China is referred to as the oldest continuous civilization with a history of over 5,000 years. It also uses one of the world's oldest written languages. Its cultural sphere extended across East Asia as a whole, "with Chinese religion, customs, and writing systems being adopted to varying degrees by neighbors such as Japan, Korea and Vietnam."

The Dynasties In its history several lines of families (dynasties) ruled. At the beginning the land was divided by independent states that only occasionally deferred to the king. It was in 221 BC when The first unified Chinese state was established (Qin Dynasty). Then, an office of the Emperor was set up and the Chinese language was forcibly standardized. This state did not last long as the initiatives soon caused uprises and rebellion. The following Dynasty, "the Han, created a lasting Han cultural identity among its populace that would last to the present day. The Han Dynasty expanded the empire's territory considerably with military campaigns reaching Korea, Vietnam, Mongolia and Central Asia, and also helped establish the Silk Road in Central Asia." The period following Han's collapse presented disunion and three kingdoms. Following dynasties reunified China with the Tang empire ruling until the 8th century. "The Song dynasty was the first government in world history to issue paper money". "Between the 10th and 11th centuries, the population of China doubled in size. This growth came about through expanded rice cultivation in central and southern China, and the production of abundant food surpluses. Within its borders, the Northern Song Dynasty had a population of some 100 million people." It was a culturally rich period in for philosophy and arts. "Landscape art and portrait painting were brought to new levels of maturity and complexity after the Tang Dynasty, and social elites gathered to view art, share their own, and make trades of precious artworks. Philosophers …reinvigorated Confucianism with new commentary, infused Buddhist ideals, and emphasized a new organization of classic texts that brought about the core doctrine of Neo-Confucianism." In 1271, the Yuan Dynasty was established by a Mongol emperor that invaded China. "Before the invasion, Chinese dynasties reportedly had approximately 120 million inhabitants; after it the 1300 census reported roughly 60 million people." A Chinese peasant managed to over through the Mongols and founded the Ming Dynasty. It continued to spread Neo-Confucianism and expand it with ideas such as individualism and innate morality. Japan and Korea are two countries that have adopted much of these philosophies. "The Qing Dynasty, which lasted until 1912, was the last dynasty in China." In the 19th century it took a defensive posture towards European imperialism, even though it engaged in imperialistic expansion into Central Asia. At this time China awoke to the significance of the rest of the world, the West in particular. As China opened up to foreign trade and missionary activity, opium produced by British India was forced onto Qing China. Two Opium Wars with Britain weakened the Emperor's control."

Civil wars The 19th century was characterized by a vast number of rebellions and civil wars, such as the Taiping Civil War (reported to be "one of the bloodiest in human history, costing at least 20 million lives, with some estimates of up to two hundred million)", . Punti-Hakka Clan Wars and the Muslim Rebellion. "These rebellions resulted in an estimated loss of several million lives each and led to disastrous results for the economy and the countryside. The flow of British opium hastened the empire's decline. In the 19th century, the age of colonialism was at its height and the great Chinese Diaspora began". "While China was wracked by continuous war, Meiji Japan succeeded in rapidly modernizing its military and set its sights on Korea and Manchuria. Influenced by Japan, Korea declared independence from Qing China's suzerainty in 1894, leading to the First Sino-Japanese War, which resulted in the Qing Dynasty's cession of both Korea and Taiwan to Japan. By the early 20th century, mass civil disorder had begun, and calls for reform and revolution were heard across the country. In 1912 two thousand years of imperial rule in China ended. Republic of China (1912–1949) In 1912, the Republic of China was established, heralding the end of the Qing Dynasty. Another attempt to reestablish an empirical regime failed, leaving China politically fragmented. Its government was perhaps internationally recognized but virtually powerless. "Warlords in various regions exercised actual control over their respective territories." The nation was unified again in 1920 and a program with the aim of transforming China into a modern, democratic state was implemented. Political tutelage meant one-party rule by the Kuomintang. "The Sino-Japanese War of 1937–1945 (part of World War II) forced an uneasy alliance between the Nationalists and the Communists as well as causing around 20 million Chinese civilian deaths. With the surrender of Japan in 1945, China emerged victorious but financially drained. The continued distrust between the Nationalists and the Communists led to the resumption of the Chinese Civil War. In 1947, constitutional rule was established, but because of the ongoing Civil War many provisions of the ROC constitution were never implemented on the mainland." Post Civil War (1949–present) "After its victory in the Chinese Civil War, the Communist Party of China (CCP) led by Mao Zedonggained control of most of Mainland China. in 1949 they established the People's Republic of China as a Socialist State headed by a "Democratic Dictatorship" with the CCP as the only legal political party. The central government of the Chinese Nationalist Party was forced to retreat to the island of Taiwan that it had occupied at the end of World War II, and moved the ROC government there. Major armed hostilities ceased in 1950 but no peace treaty has been signed. An estimated 36 million died during the Great Chinese Famine of 1958–61" "After the Chinese Civil War, mainland China underwent a series of disruptive socioeconomic movements starting in the late 1950s with the Great Leap Forward and continuing in the 1960s with the Cultural Revolution that left much of its education system and economy in shambles.Post-1978 reforms on the mainland have led to some relaxation of control over many areas of society. However, the PRC government still has almost absolute control over politics, and it continually seeks to eradicate what it perceives as threats to the social, political and economic stability of the country. Examples include the fight against terrorism, jailing of political opponents and journalists, custody regulation of the press, regulation of religion, and suppression of independence/secessionist movements. In 1989, the student protests at Tiananmen Square were violently put to an end by the Chinese military after 15 days of martial law. In 1997, Hong Kong was ceded to the PRC by the United Kingdom, and in 1999, Macau was handed over by Portugal."

Today "Mainland China is administered by the People's Republic of China—a one-party state under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party—while the island of Taiwan and surrounding islands are administered by the Republic of China—a democratic multi-party state. "

After the founding of the People's Republic in 1949, both states claimed to be the sole legitimate ruler of all of China. "The People's Republic of China claims to have succeeded the Republic of China as the sole legitimate governing authority of all of China, which, from the official viewpoint of the People's Republic of China, includes the island of Taiwan. Over the last 50 years, both the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China have used diplomatic and economic means to compete for recognition in the international arena. Because most international, intergovernmental organizations observe the One-China policy of the People's Republic of China, the PRC has been able to pressure organizations, such as the World Health Organization and the International Olympic Committee, to refuse to officially recognize the Republic of China. Due to the One-China policy, states around the world are pressured to refuse, or to cut off diplomatic relations with the Republic of China. As a result, 23 U.N. member states currently maintain official diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, while the vast majority of U.N. member states maintain official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China."

What can we learn from the Chinese history?

Environment

Below are the short answers for each question. For more information on these answers please select the following link: Environmental Research Questions - China in 2030

What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?
The driving factors behind China’s environmental problems include an increase in the number of households, increased urbanization, explosive economic growth, failure to execute environmental policy, lack of public awareness and prioritization of economic growth over sustainability.


What impact have these key drivers had on the environment?

These key drivers have caused air pollution, acid rain, loss of agricultural land, forest deficiency, poor water quality, water scarcity, ocean coastline pollution, and loss in biodiversity.


What impact have these poor environmental conditions had on China?

China's current poor environmental situation causes great socioeconomic loss, increases the nation's health costs, more frequent and damaging natural disasters, and increasing social inequities. For example, the losses from pollution and ecological damage ranged from 7% to 20% of GDP every year in the past two decades. From 1996 to 2001, China's spending on public health increased by 80%, or more than 13% per year in part to cope with environmental problems. The number of mass protests caused by environmental issues has grown by 29% every year. Finally, droughts, floods, and other natural disasters have become increasingly frequent and damaging causing great financial losses as well as that of human life.


What are China's most significant environmental obstacles going forward?

China's largest obstacles to improve the environment lie in its failure to execute environmental policies, prioritization of economic growth over environmental protection, lack of public awareness, and continued economic growth. China has developed numerous environmental laws and policies, but most of them are just on paper. Furthermore, many environmental laws and regulations were written largely piecemeal, lack effective implementation and evaluation of long-term consequences, and need a systems approach. (PBS, 2006)

How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future (and the world's future)?

The increasing number of households, population growth, and growing affluence and consumption will continue to have detrimental effects on the environment. Additionally, having the world's largest population and fastest-growing economy means that China's actions also heavily affect the rest of the world. Total production or consumption is the product of population size times per capita production or consumption rate. China’s achievement of developed-world consumption standards will approximately double the world’s human resource use and environmental impact. This is why China’s environmental problems are the world’s.

What will China's environmental policy be going forward?

Recognizing the environmental challenges the country faces, the Chinese government is hoping to build an environmentally-friendly society, and has set very ambitious environmental goals. By 2020, China plans to significantly improve environmental quality and ecological conditions. Still, China's economic goal is to double its GDP by 2020, and we've seen from the past two decades that economic goals tend to be well surpassed while environmental goals are left largely unattended to. (PBS, 2006)

China is also increasingly assuming responsibilities on the world stage by participating in environmental treaties. Public awareness for the environment has improved and China has been pushing hard for cleaner production and sustainable development. China is also designing and adopting a green accounting system that includes environmental costs in the calculation of gross domestic product (or Green GDP).

Driving Forces

New Forces

The following forces were determined by our group:

Political Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Economics Driving Forces

After effect of the 2008 economic crisis

Existing Forces

The following forces are already existing on the wiki that are explicitly related to China.

Political Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Scenarios

References

Websites

  1. Political History: http://acc6.its.brooklyn.cuny.edu/~phalsall/texts/chinhist.html
  2. General History: http://www-chaos.umd.edu/history/toc.html


News and Journal Articles

  1. Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment
  2. PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
  3. Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf

Previous Scenarios

  1. Future of China in 2020
  2. The Future of the Internet in China 2015
  3. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
  4. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
  5. http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf

Recommended Reading

  1. Shen, Sandy. (2008). Innovation Is Reshaping China's Economy. Gartner. G00157000.
  2. Pei, Minxin. (2007). Corruption Threatens China’s Future. Carnegie: Endowment for International Peace. Policy Brief 55
  3. Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian Development Bank. November.
  4. Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
  5. Zhang, Zeng, Mako & Seward. 2009. Promoting Enterprise-Led Innovation in China. The World Bank.
  6. Miaojie, Yu. 2009. Global Times. Domestic markets can't sustain China's growth
  7. Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing Technological Innovation. To be presented at “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
  8. Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
  9. Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005. Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints. RAND Corporation.
  10. Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
  11. Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.
  12. Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
  13. UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment Research. 2005. How to Think About China. Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong. 6 January.
  14. Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004. New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
  15. Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_China_in_2030&oldid=28559"