Future of the European Union in 2030

Team Composition

• Arthur Danzi
• Gudmundur Kristjansson
  
• Mauricio Suzuki
  
• Sameer Agarwal
  
• Sri Hari Krishnan
  

Introduction

The Flag of the European Union

European Union 2009

Candidate countries

Likely Future Enlargements

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions

1. What is the definition of Europe?
2. What countries are part of the European Union?
3. What is the history of the European Union?
4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
5. What is the euro zone?

Politics

1. How is the European Union Governed?
2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
3. How is the European parliament elected?
4. How is the European parliament structured?
5. How do the countries work together?
6. How does the EU take decisions?
7. How does the EU tick?
8. How is the EU budget managed?
9. Are there any planned budget policy changes?
10. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
11. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
12. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?
13. What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?

Policy

1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK
2. What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M
3. What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
4. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
5. What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here
6. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
7. What are the foreign policies of the EU?

Environment

1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
2. EU's response to climate change?

Economics

1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
4. What are trade statistics for the EU?
5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society

1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?
4. What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?
5. How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?

Terrorism

1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics

1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?
6. What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?

Geopolitics

1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
2. Enlargement of EU?
3. The future of European Union: Managing Globalization
4. The future of European Union: Future Trends
5. What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
6. Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?
7. Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
8. In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
9. EU and Asia?
10. EU and India?
11. EU and China?
12. EU and Japan?
13. EU and South Korea?
14. EU and US?
15. EU and Canada?
16. EU and Africa?
17. EU and Latin America?
18. EU and Russia?
19. EU and Middle East?
20. What role does Africa play for Europe?
21. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
22. Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
23. How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?

Infrastructure

1. Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?

Systems Diagram

Systems Diagram

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

• Political Stability in Europe
• Institutional & Bureaucratic Dynamics
• To be a world power house
• Economic Success
• Turkey Joining the EU
• Movement Towards World Unification
• Islamic Fundamentalism
• Terrorism

Technological Driving Forces

• Balancing clean & efficient technology against cost
• Economic Growth through Innovation
• Alternative sources of energy

Environmental Driving Forces

• Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU
• Scarcity of Water in the EU
• Increasing need to clean energy
• Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices
• Pressure from developing countries
• Effects of climate change

Economic Driving Forces

• EU as a Counterweight to America
• Energy Scarcity in Europe
• The increasing globalization of markets

Societal Driving Forces

• Increasing Mobility
• Changes in Religion buildup of Europe
• Aging Europe
• Unemployment
• Racism

Scenarios

These are the four scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Included are two diagrams that indicate our train of thought when trying to come to these scenarios. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.

• Reactionary
• Green Revolution
• Slow Decline

Scenario Matrix

	Reactionary	Green Revolution	Slow Decline
Governance	Central (Brussels)	Network
Economy	Recession	Fast Growth	Slow Growth
Identity	Inward	Outward
Immigration	Closed Border	Open Border	As is
Boundary	Break Up	Expansion	Slow Decline
Financial	System Socialism	Mix	Capitalism
Culture	Traditional	New	Mix
Commerce/Trade	Restricted	Free	Free
Resources/Energy	Oil&Gas Dependency	Push Towards Sustainable	Oil&Gas Dependency / Energy Scarcity
Political Alignment	Reactive	Liberal / Progressive	Liberal / Progressive
Population Change	Aging-pop	Immigration as Driver	?

References

Scenario Reports

• NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary
• New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
• European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)
• Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States
• Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)
• Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe to 2030
• Could we imagine another future for Europe? (very good resource)

Economic Reports & Statistics

• Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union
• Europe Interactive Map - Can compare different EU region

News & Other Sources

• Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios
• Economic Problems of European Union
• Immigration Problems in EU
• Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?
• Q&A: EU enlargement
• About the European Union on Wikipedia

Presentations

• Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"

Research Papers and Books

• Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
• Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
• Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
• Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
• Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
• Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
• Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
• Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
• Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
• Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
• Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
• Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
• Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London

Videos

• The European Union - the New Soviet Union?
• Barroso: European Union is 'empire'
• Should the UK leave the European Union?
• Interview - Jose Manuel Barroso
• Economic future of EU is Green" Philippe Lamberts from EGP on EU Elections
• Davos Open Forum 2006 - The Future of Europe in the World
• EU European Union Strasbourg Parliament Poster Pentagrams
• The Rise of the European Superstate
• An alternative view of the European Union
• Which future for Europe? The Regression of the EU into an Anti-historic Europe of 27 Little Fatherlands - 3 Day Conference
• The Uncertain Future of Europe (Eurabia?)

Numbers that Matter

Muslim Demographics - The Truth