Difference between revisions of "Future of Russia in 2030"

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[[Image:russia_flg.gif|thumb|The Flag of Russia Federation|220px]]
[[Image:russia_flg.gif|thumb|The Flag of Russia Federation|220px]]
[[Image:russamap.gif|thumb|Russia Map|220px]]  
[[Image:russamap.gif|thumb|Russia Map|220px]]  
[[Image:georgia-russia conflict.jpg|thumb|Russia tanks|220px]]
[[Image:georgia-russia conflict.jpg|thumb|Russia Georgia conflict|220px]]
By asking questions about present day Russia and looking at trends, we aim to develop  three plausible but unconventional scenarios about Russia's future in 2030.
By asking questions about present day Russia and looking at trends, we aim to develop  three plausible but unconventional scenarios about Russia's future in 2030.


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#[[Demographics]]
#[[Demographics]]
#[[Miscellaneous]]
#[[Miscellaneous]]
=REFERENCE=
<b>Links</b>
1.[http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/  A journal on foreign affairs and international relations]<br> 
2.[http://www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullreport.pdf 2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211]<br>
3.[https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html Russia world factbook]<br>
4.[http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/Scenarios/RussiaScenarios/index.htm Russia scenarios web reference 2025]<br>
5.[http://books.google.nl/books?hl=nl&lr=&id=4Y9_fYt9iagC&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=Russia+future&ots=nvGBWNl5X6&sig=sK9ZU5Q7eIwYv1JTDj3GXtIfeSc#v=onepage&q=&f=false Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain, Dale Roy Herspring]<br>
6.[http://books.google.nl/books?id=1YGJDLpLYWEC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Russia+future&lr=&source=gbs_similarbooks_s&cad=1#v=onepage&q=Russia%20future&f=false Russia: continuity and change By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich]
7.[http://www.plausiblefutures.com/ just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news]<br>
8.[http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/27/1274.html/ Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". No 2, April - June 2009 By Dmitry Badovsky]
9.[http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Economic_Studies/Country_Reports/How_Russia_could_be_more_productive_2435 How Russia could be more productive, McKinsey Quarterly]<br>
10.[http://www.iiasa.ac.at/ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)]<br>
11.[http://www.gapminder.org/ Gapminder]<br>
<b>Videos</b>
*[http://http://www.youtube.com/user/WorldEconomicForum#play/search/4/hZMvwUFkvF0 Davo Open Forum 2008--Russia Geopolitical Ambitions]
*[http://www.youtube.com/user/WorldEconomicForum#play/search/7/x5PWjcR4wzI Davo Annual meeting 2007--Modern Russia(government)]
*[http://http://www.youtube.com/user/WorldEconomicForum#play/search/5/86rP7TZdzCM Davo Annual meeting 2007--Modern Russia(Business)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/user/WorldEconomicForum#play/search/8/EfZF5TsXHeU Davo Open Forum 2007--Managing access to Oil]
*[http://www.youtube.com/user/WorldEconomicForum#play/search/3/7LAhmCOvvHU Russia CEO rundtable--Dmitry Medvedev]


=DRIVING FORCES=
=DRIVING FORCES=
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=== Environmental Driving Forces ===
=== Environmental Driving Forces ===
# [[Enforcement of Environmental policy in Russia]]
# [[Enforcement of Environmental policy in Russia]]
# [[Increasing need for clean energy]]


=== Economic Driving Forces ===
=== Economic Driving Forces ===
Line 85: Line 49:


=System DIAGRAMS=
=System DIAGRAMS=
[[Image:System_diagram2.jpg]]
[[Image:System_diagram2.jpg|480px]]
 
=Inference Matrix=
[http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Auifd1C_Qhl_dFB4NlQtRFBBb2Fsd1lOM0JzYUhkSWc&hl=en Russia Scenario inference Matrix]
 
=Scenario trees=
[[Image:russiatree2.jpg|600px|Scenario Tree for the Future of Russia]]


=INTERVIEWS=
=INTERVIEWS=
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=SCENARIOS=
=SCENARIOS=


#'''[[Black Gold's Curse:Crumbling Empire]]'''<br>
#'''[[Putin: Return of the Czar]]'''<br>
#'''[[Green Shoots]]'''<br>
=REFERENCES=
<b>Links</b>
1.[http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/  A journal on foreign affairs and international relations]<br> 
2.[http://www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullreport.pdf 2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211]<br>
3.[https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html Russia world factbook]<br>
4.[http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/Scenarios/RussiaScenarios/index.htm Russia scenarios web reference 2025]<br>
5.[http://books.google.nl/books?hl=nl&lr=&id=4Y9_fYt9iagC&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=Russia+future&ots=nvGBWNl5X6&sig=sK9ZU5Q7eIwYv1JTDj3GXtIfeSc#v=onepage&q=&f=false Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain, Dale Roy Herspring]<br>
6.[http://books.google.nl/books?id=1YGJDLpLYWEC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Russia+future&lr=&source=gbs_similarbooks_s&cad=1#v=onepage&q=Russia%20future&f=false Russia: continuity and change By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich]


7.[http://www.plausiblefutures.com/ just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news]<br>


# [[Black Gold's Curse: Crumbling Empire]]
8.[http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/27/1274.html/ Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". No 2, April - June 2009 By Dmitry Badovsky]
# [[Putin: Return of the Czar]]
 
# [[Green Shoots]]
9.[http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Economic_Studies/Country_Reports/How_Russia_could_be_more_productive_2435 How Russia could be more productive, McKinsey Quarterly]<br>
 
10.[http://www.iiasa.ac.at/ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)]<br>
 
11.[http://www.gapminder.org/ Gapminder]<br>
 
12.[http://www.jpri.org/publications/workingpapers/wp62.html/ JPRI Working Paper No. 62: November 1999 The Chinese Diaspora, Mongolia and the Sino-Russian Frontier, by Robert Bedeski]<br>
 
13.[http://www.ted.com/talks/parag_khanna_maps_the_future_of_countries.html/TED.com: Parag Khanna maps the future of countries]<br>
 
14.[http://eng.kremlin.ru// President of Russia official website]<br>
 
15.[http://www.minfin.ru/en/// Russia Ministry of Finance]<br>
 
 
 
<b>Videos</b>
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZMvwUFkvF0 Davo Open Forum 2008--Russia Geopolitical Ambitions]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5PWjcR4wzI Davo Annual meeting 2007--Modern Russia(government)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86rP7TZdzCM Davo Annual meeting 2007--Modern Russia(Business)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfZF5TsXHeU Davo Open Forum 2007--Managing access to Oil]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LAhmCOvvHU Russia CEO rundtable--Dmitry Medvedev]

Latest revision as of 18:20, 17 October 2009

INTRODUCTION

The Flag of Russia Federation
Russia Map
Russia Georgia conflict

By asking questions about present day Russia and looking at trends, we aim to develop three plausible but unconventional scenarios about Russia's future in 2030.

GROUP MEMBERS

Chih-Hou Chen
Andrei Grigorian
Mark Pospisilik
Elsa Sheng

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

  1. Economic Questions
  2. Political Questions
  3. Policy
  4. Technological Questions
  5. Foreign Investment Questions
  6. Racism in Russia
  7. Demographics
  8. Miscellaneous

DRIVING FORCES

Political Driving Forces

  1. Break down in Russo-Chinese relations
  2. Increasing instability in the Caucasus
  3. Improved the relation with the US
  4. Increase/Decrease of individual and democratic rights and freedoms
  5. Increase/Decrease in the rule of law

Societal Driving Forces

  1. Decline of the Russian population

Environmental Driving Forces

  1. Enforcement of Environmental policy in Russia

Economic Driving Forces

  1. Increasing value of Nature Resource (Oil, Natural Gas) in Russia
  2. The Rise of BRIC Economies
  3. Poor Business Climate
  4. The post-Kyoto Economy of Russia

Technological Driving Forces

  1. The Increasing Influence of the Internet
  2. Russia's Investment in Military Technology

System DIAGRAMS

System diagram2.jpg

Inference Matrix

Russia Scenario inference Matrix

Scenario trees

Scenario Tree for the Future of Russia

INTERVIEWS

  1. Interview 1 : Senior Executive of large company operating in Russia
  2. Interview 2 : Bobo Lo, Senior Research Fellow at Centre for European Reform: London
  3. Interview/reference 3: Conversation with Dmitry Medvedev. Answers to questions from Director of News Programmes at Russia's Channel One Kirill Kleimenov,October 11, 2009

SCENARIOS

  1. Black Gold's Curse:Crumbling Empire
  2. Putin: Return of the Czar
  3. Green Shoots

REFERENCES

Links

1.A journal on foreign affairs and international relations

2.2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211

3.Russia world factbook

4.Russia scenarios web reference 2025

5.Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain, Dale Roy Herspring

6.Russia: continuity and change By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich

7.just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news

8.Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". No 2, April - June 2009 By Dmitry Badovsky

9.How Russia could be more productive, McKinsey Quarterly

10.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

11.Gapminder

12.JPRI Working Paper No. 62: November 1999 The Chinese Diaspora, Mongolia and the Sino-Russian Frontier, by Robert Bedeski

13.Parag Khanna maps the future of countries

14.President of Russia official website

15.Russia Ministry of Finance


Videos

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