Difference between revisions of "Future of the European Union in 2030"

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* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>


==Introduction==
==Introduction==  
[[Image:EUFlag.jpg|thumb|The Flag of the European Union|200px]]
[[Image:EUFlag.jpg|thumb|The Flag of the European Union|220px]] [[Image:EUMap.png|thumb|European Union 2009|220px]] [[Image:EUCandidatecCountries.png|thumb|Candidate countries|220px]] [[Image:LikelyFutureEnlargements.png|thumb|Likely Future Enlargements|220px]]
[[Image:EUMap.png|thumb|European Union 2009|200px]]
The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>
[[Image:EUCandidatecCountries.png|thumb|Candidate countries|200px]]
[[Image:LikelyFutureEnlargements.png|thumb|Likely Future Enlargements|200px]]


==Stories==
However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.
 
# Reactionary (change in identity)
 
The current financial crisis leads to a depression in Europe. The billions of Euro pumped into the financial market by the richer nations in the EU, helps the economy to stabalise and show signs of recovery. But, the recovery is long drawn and the rich nations are not able to sustain the financial flow and start withdrawing the money released to divert it to other economic requirements. The EU is also unable to sustain subsidising the lesser developed member states. This causes wide spent resentment among member nations. With rising unemployment levels and falling standards of living, member nations turn their focus inward and adopt more socialistic practices. People start re-looking at their identity. Till now they believed in a unified EU, but as the EU is not able to keep the ship afloat, richer members consider the option of being the first to part ways so that they are able to serve their people better. EU starts disintegrating.


==Research Questions==
==Research Questions==
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# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# Are there any planned budget policy changes?
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
<b>Policy</b>
<b>Policy</b>
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK]]
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M]]
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU?]]
# What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
# [[What are the Regional policies of the EU?]]
# What are the Regional policies of the EU?
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# What are the foreign policies of the EU?
# [[What are the foreign policies of the EU?]]
# [[What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?]]
<b>Environment </b>
<b>Environment </b>
# [[What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?]]
# [[What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?]]
# [[EU's response to climate change?]]<br>
# [[EU's response to climate change?]]
# [[What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?]]<br>
<b>Economics</b>
<b>Economics</b>
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
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# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?]]
# [[How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?]]
<b>Terrorism </b>
<b>Terrorism </b>
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
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# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?]]
<b>Geopolitics</b>
<b>Geopolitics</b>
# [[Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members]]?
# [[Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members]]?
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# [[The future of European Union: Managing Globalization]]
# [[The future of European Union: Managing Globalization]]
# [[The future of European Union: Future Trends]]
# [[The future of European Union: Future Trends]]
# What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
# [[Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?]]
# [[Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?]]
# Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
# In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
# [[EU and Asia?]]
# [[EU and Asia?]]
# [[EU and India?]]
# [[EU and India?]]
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# [[EU and Russia?]]
# [[EU and Russia?]]
# [[EU and Middle East?]]
# [[EU and Middle East?]]
# What role does Africa play for Europe?
# [[What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?]]
# [[What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?]]
# Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
 
# How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?
==Numbers that Matter==
As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.
*[http://www.slideshare.net/persight/numbers-that-matter-muslim-demographics-the-truth Muslim Demographics - The Truth]


==Driving Forces==
==Driving Forces==
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*[[Institutional & Bureaucratic Dynamics]]
*[[Institutional & Bureaucratic Dynamics]]
*[[To be a world power house]]
*[[To be a world power house]]
*[[Economic Success]]
*[[Turkey Joining the EU]]
*[[Turkey Joining the EU]]
*[[Movement Towards World Unification]]
*[[Movement Towards World Unification]]
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*[[Terrorism]]
*[[Terrorism]]
<b>Technological Driving Forces</b>
<b>Technological Driving Forces</b>
*[[Balancing clean & efficient technology against cost]]
*[[Economic Growth through Innovation]]
*[[Alternative sources of energy]]
*[[Alternative sources of energy]]
<b>Environmental Driving Forces</b>
<b>Environmental Driving Forces</b>
*[[Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU]]
*[[Scarcity of Water in the EU]]
*[[Increasing need to clean energy]]
*[[Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices]]
*[[Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices]]
*[[Pressure from developing countries]]
*[[Pressure from developing countries]]
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<b>Societal Driving Forces</b>
<b>Societal Driving Forces</b>
*[[Increasing Mobility]]
*[[Increasing Mobility]]
*[[Changes in Religion buildup of Europe]]
*[[Aging Europe]]
*[[Aging Europe]]
*[[Unemployment]]
*[[Unemployment]]
*[[Racism]]
*[[Racism]]


==System Map==
==System Diagram==
[[Image:EU_Systems_Diagram.jpg|thumb|center|Systems Diagram|600px]]
[[Image:EU_Systems_Diagram.jpg|Systems Diagram|800px]]
==Scenarios==
[[Image:FishEUScenarios.png|thumb|500px|Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe]]
These are the four scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Included are two diagrams that indicate our train of thought when trying to come to these scenarios. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.
*[[The Blame Game]]
*[[The Gilded Cage]]
*[[New Beginning]]


=== Scenario Matrix ===
== Inference matrix ==
{|
{| class="wikitable"
|-
!
!
! Reactionary
! [[The Blame Game]]
! Green Revolution
! [[New Beginning]]
! Slow Decline
! [[The Gilded Cage]]
|-
|-
|<i>Governance</i>
|<i>Governance</i>
|Central (Brussels)
|National
|Network
|[[Network]]
|
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supranational_union Supranational union]
|-
|-
|<i>Economy</i>
|<i>Economy</i>
|Recession
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession Recession]
|Fast Growth
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Fast Growth]
|Slow Growth
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Slow Growth]
|-
|-
|<i>Identity</i>
|<i>Identity</i>
|Inward
|[[Inward]]
|Outward
|[[Outward]]
|
| -
|-
|-
|<i>Immigration</i>
|<i>Immigration</i>
|Closed Border
|[[Closed Border]]
|Open Border
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_borders Open Border]
|As is
|[[As is]]
|-
|-
|<i>Boundary</i>
|<i>Boundary</i>
|Break Up
|Break Up
|Expansion
|Expansion
|Slow Decline
|[http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp Slow Decline]
|-
|-
|<i>Financial</i>
|<i>Financial</i>
|System Socialism
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism System Socialism]
|Mix
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_economy Mix]
|Capitalism
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism Capitalism]
|-
|<i>Culture</i>
|Traditional
|New
|Mix
|-
|-
|<i>Commerce/Trade</i>
|<i>Commerce/Trade</i>
|Restricted
|Restricted
|Free
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|Free
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|-
|-
|<i>Resources/Energy</i>
|<i>Resources/Energy</i>
|Oil&Gas Dependency
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|Push Towards Sustainable
|[[Alternative sources of energy]]
|Oil&Gas Dependency / Energy Scarcity
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|-
|-
|<i>Political Alignment</i>
|<i>Political Alignment</i>
Line 198: Line 169:
|-
|-
|<i>Population Change</i>
|<i>Population Change</i>
|Aging-pop
|[[Aging Europe]]
|Immigration as Driver
|[[Increasing Mobility]]/Immigration
|?
|[[Aging Europe]]
|-
|-
|}
|}
==Scenario Tree==
[[Image:FishEUScenarios.png|800px|Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe]]
==Scenarios==
These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.
<b>[[The Blame Game]]</b><br>
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.
<b>[[The Gilded Cage]]</b><br>
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.
<b>[[New Beginning]]</b><br>
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.
<br>
<br>


==References==
==References==
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*[http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]
*[http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]
*[http://www.thud.nl/wkmaps/ Europe Interactive Map - Can compare different EU region]
*[http://www.thud.nl/wkmaps/ Europe Interactive Map - Can compare different EU region]
<b>News & Other Sources</b>
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
*[http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
*[http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
*[http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]
<b>Presentations</b>
<b>Presentations</b>
*[http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]
*[http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]
*[http://www.slideshare.net/persight/numbers-that-matter-muslim-demographics-the-truth Muslim Demographics - The Truth]
<b>Research Papers and Books</b>
<b>Research Papers and Books</b>
*Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
*Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
Line 241: Line 224:
*Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
*Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
*Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London
*Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London
<b>News & Other Sources</b>
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
*[http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
*[http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
*[http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]
*[http://endofmen.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/why-ireland-should-vote-no-to-the-lisbon-treaty/ Why Ireland should vote No to the Lisbon Treaty]
<b>Videos</b>
<b>Videos</b>
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU The European Union - the New Soviet Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU The European Union - the New Soviet Union?]
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*[http://www.radioradicale.it/scheda/277976 Which future for Europe? The Regression of the EU into an Anti-historic Europe of 27 Little Fatherlands - 3 Day Conference]
*[http://www.radioradicale.it/scheda/277976 Which future for Europe? The Regression of the EU into an Anti-historic Europe of 27 Little Fatherlands - 3 Day Conference]
*[http://fora.tv/2008/06/01/Uncommon_Knowledge_Daniel_Pipes#Daniel_Pipes_-_The_Uncertain_Future_of_Muslims_in_Europe The Uncertain Future of Europe (Eurabia?)]
*[http://fora.tv/2008/06/01/Uncommon_Knowledge_Daniel_Pipes#Daniel_Pipes_-_The_Uncertain_Future_of_Muslims_in_Europe The Uncertain Future of Europe (Eurabia?)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p9VC_P3Gf8 EU Takeover & the Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kr0Foq3CQE MEP Exposes The EU Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlrESONoYR4 The Lisbon Treaty is a Fascist Conspiracy]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzf7GUmbsdM Will the Lisbon Treaty achieve its goals?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Lisbon+Treaty&search_type=&aq=f Jim Corr on The Lisbon Treaty & The New World Order.]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC4Mn9Grs3w Frost over the World - Ireland's Lisbon treaty vote-2 Oct 09]
*[http://videolectures.net/iswc06_fountain_pc/ The Semantic Web and Networked Governance: Promise and Challenges]
*[http://www.vimeo.com/4397158 Program on Networked Governance CCCSN Seminar 2009-04-13: Jennifer Chayes]

Latest revision as of 16:08, 17 October 2009

Team Composition

Introduction

The Flag of the European Union
European Union 2009
Candidate countries
Likely Future Enlargements

The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>

However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions

  1. What is the definition of Europe?
  2. What countries are part of the European Union?
  3. What is the history of the European Union?
  4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
  5. What is the euro zone?

Politics

  1. How is the European Union Governed?
  2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
  3. How is the European parliament elected?
  4. How is the European parliament structured?
  5. How do the countries work together?
  6. How does the EU take decisions?
  7. How does the EU tick?
  8. How is the EU budget managed?
  9. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
  10. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
  11. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?

Policy

  1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?
  2. What are the Energy policies of the EU?
  3. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
  4. What are the Environment policies of the EU?
  5. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
  6. What are the foreign policies of the EU?
  7. What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?

Environment

  1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
  2. EU's response to climate change?
  3. What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?

Economics

  1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
  2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
  3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
  4. What are trade statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society

  1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
  2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
  3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?

Terrorism

  1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
  2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
  3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics

  1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
  2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
  3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
  4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?

Geopolitics

  1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
  2. Enlargement of EU?
  3. The future of European Union: Managing Globalization
  4. The future of European Union: Future Trends
  5. Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?
  6. EU and Asia?
  7. EU and India?
  8. EU and China?
  9. EU and Japan?
  10. EU and South Korea?
  11. EU and US?
  12. EU and Canada?
  13. EU and Africa?
  14. EU and Latin America?
  15. EU and Russia?
  16. EU and Middle East?
  17. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?

Numbers that Matter

As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

System Diagram

Systems Diagram

Inference matrix

The Blame Game New Beginning The Gilded Cage
Governance National Network Supranational union
Economy Recession Fast Growth Slow Growth
Identity Inward Outward -
Immigration Closed Border Open Border As is
Boundary Break Up Expansion Slow Decline
Financial System Socialism Mix Capitalism
Commerce/Trade Restricted Free Free
Resources/Energy Energy Scarcity in Europe Alternative sources of energy Energy Scarcity in Europe
Political Alignment Reactive Liberal / Progressive Liberal / Progressive
Population Change Aging Europe Increasing Mobility/Immigration Aging Europe

Scenario Tree

Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe

Scenarios

These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.


The Blame Game
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.


The Gilded Cage
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


New Beginning
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.

References

Scenario Reports

Economic Reports & Statistics

Presentations

Research Papers and Books

  • Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
  • Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
  • Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
  • Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
  • Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
  • Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
  • Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London

News & Other Sources

Videos

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