Difference between revisions of "Future of Sustainability 2030"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
 
(129 intermediate revisions by 6 users not shown)
Line 4: Line 4:
Yojiro Fukaya<br>
Yojiro Fukaya<br>
Eric Lam<br>
Eric Lam<br>
Ynzhu (Carrie) Ma<br>
Yunzhu (Carrie) Ma<br>
[[User:Hugh.malkin|Hugh Malkin]]<br>
[[User:Hugh.malkin|Hugh Malkin]]<br>
Kay Mei Tan<br>
Kay Mei Tan<br>
=Introduction=
=Introduction=
"Meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."<br>
=Research Questions=
What is the history?<br>
How did sustainability start?<br>
What are the driving forces in the past? <br>
Who/what does sustainability effect the most?<br>
Who is the best/worst at sustainability?<br>
How is sustainability measured?<br>
Why does sustainability matter?<br>
What is most important to sustain?<br>
What does sustainability mean?<br>
Do we need to be sustainability<br>
How sustainability can effect on economy?<br>
How sustainability can effect on our life?<br>
Why do we need sustainability now?<br>
What is the motivation for companies to work for sustainability?<br>
How will growth in developing countries effect on sustainability?<br>
Can technological development solve environmental issues dramatically?<br>
What is the urgent issue relating to sustainability?<br>
What can we do as a individual?<br>


1. What is the purpose of sustainability?  Why does it matter? What is it?<br>
"Sustainable Development is a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development; and institutional change are all in harmony and enhance both current and future potential to meet human needs and aspirations." from the United Nations Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future (Brundtland Commission) http://www.un-documents.net/ocf-02.htm#I<br>
2. Is sustainability a slow or fast change?  What changes are present day solutions and which are long-term solutions?<br>
3. What is the balance of profits and sustainability?<br>
4. What is the definition of Sustainability?  Lifestyle, products, CO2?<br>
5. Is less bad of sustainability actually good? What is the goal of sustainability?  What is sufficient?<br>
6. Are things really measureable?<br>
7. Where should the solution come from?  Is there a universal answer?<br>


• Water: Is It the Key Limiting Factor?
• What is sustainability?
• What is the value of the global services for sustainability e.g. air and water purification, agricultural pollination, nutrient cycling, soil enrichment, climate stabilization, medicinal products and drought mitigation?
• What would happen if we do not work on sustainability?
• How much should be done?
• Who should be responsible for sustainability e.g. government, individuals, country?
• How bad is the current situation?
• What happened if we slow growth? Does that mean that we do not need to work on sustainability?


=Driving Forces=
Or in other words:  
#[[Resources]]
#[[Technology]]
#[[Alternative Energy]]
#[[Technological Development]]
#[[Education]]
#[[Information sharing]]
#[[Business]]
#[[Green Business]]
#[[CSR]]
==Economy==
===GDP===
==Regulation==
(Global, not each country)
===Kyoto Protocol (http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php)===
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.


The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so.


Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”
Sustainable Development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs<br>


The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. 184 Parties of the Convention have ratified its Protocol to date. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh in 2001, and are called the “Marrakesh Accords.”


====The Kyoto mechanisms====
Sustainable development deals with Social Equity, the Economy, and the Environment<br>


Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms.
=Research Questions=
;Definition
#[[What is the definition of Sustainability?]]<br>
#[[What is "The Tragedy of the Commons"?]]<br>
;General


The Kyoto mechanisms are:
#[[What is the history of sustainability?]]<br>
;Envirnoment
#[[What is the rate of Ice melt?]]
# [[What is the urgent issue relating to sustainability?]]<br>
# [[What can we do as a individual?]]<br>
# [[What is measurable?]]<br>
#[[What are current international regulations regarding sustainability?]]
;Energy
#[[What are the current major ways of power generation]]
#[[What is the most efficient power generation method in terms of cost and CO2 emission?]]
#[[What to extent cost of renewable energy will be cheeper?]]
;Technology
#[[What are the key technologies?]]
#[[Can technological development solve environmental issues dramatically?]]
;Resource
#[[What is the outlook of world energy in the next 20 years?]]
#[[How much oil is left in the world? When will oil run out?]]<br>
#[[Is water the Key Limiting Factor?]]<br>
#[[Will other natural resource, other than energy, play serious roles in the future sustainability?]]
#[[What are the other threats to sustainability?]]<br>
#[[How do human beings interact with/affect natural resource?]]
#[[What are the energy trends in India and China?]]
#[[What are the impacts of climate change to the future sustainability?]]
;Value
#[[What is the most important value for sustainability?]]
#[[What is the method evaluating values?]]
#[[What are the values of the worlds leading polluters?]]
;Pollution
#[[What is the most important pollutant?]]
#[[Which Fossil Fuels give off most Carbon Dioxide? What are the worst Fossil Fuels?]]<br>
;Population
#[[Is our population growing?]]
#[[Is there a limit to growth?]]


- Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"
;Education
- Clean development mechanism (CDM)
#[[What is Education for Sustainable Development (ESD)?]]
- Joint implementation (JI).


The mechanisms help stimulate green investment and help Parties meet their emission targets in a cost-effective way.
=Driving Forces=
#[[Sustainable Resources]]
#[[Alternative Energy]]
#[[Technological Development]]
#[[Education]]
#[[Business]]
#[[Economy]]
#[[Regulations for Sustainability]]
#[[Values]]
#[[Population]]
#[[Pollution]]


====Monitoring emission targets====
=Systems Diagram=
[[image:Diagram_sustainability1.jpg|200px|1st draft]]


Under the Protocol, countries’actual emissions have to be monitored and precise records have to be kept of the trades carried out.
1st draft


Registry systems track and record transactions by Parties under the mechanisms. The UN Climate Change Secretariat, based in Bonn, Germany, keeps an international transaction log to verify that transactions are consistent with the rules of the Protocol.
[[image:systemmap.jpg|200px|Final version]]


Reporting is done by Parties by way of submitting annual emission inventories and national reports under the Protocol at regular intervals.


A compliance system ensures that Parties are meeting their commitments and helps them to meet their commitments if they have problems doing so.
Final version


====Adaptation====
=Scenario Tree=


The Kyoto Protocol, like the Convention, is also designed to assist countries in adapting to the adverse effects of climate change. It facilitates the development and deployment of techniques that can help increase resilience to the impacts of climate change.
[[image:ScenarioTree_s2.jpg|400px]]
 
The Adaptation Fund was established to finance adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Fund is financed mainly with a share of proceeds from CDM project activities.
 
====The road ahead====
 
The Kyoto Protocol is generally seen as an important first step towards a truly global emission reduction regime that will stabilize GHG emissions, and provides the essential architecture for any future international agreement on climate change.
 
By the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, a new international framework needs to have been negotiated and ratified that can deliver the stringent emission reductions the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has clearly indicated are needed.
 
==Values==
===Individual===
===As a society===
==Developing Country==
===Poverty===
==Leadership==


=Scenarios=
=Scenarios=
# [[Collapse of the Environment]]
# [[Tragedy of Commons]]
# [[New Enlightenment]]
# [[Market Regulation]]


=References=
=References=
Erasumus prof. Michael Braungart (co-author Cradle to Cradle)<br>
#[[Websites]]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1B8fTujfL30<br>
#[[Books]]
 
#[[News Articles]]
Robert Rubinstien (Green Investment)<br>
#[[Notes]]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBUV1PJE8r4<br>
 
The Limits to Growth<br>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth <br>
 
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change<br>
http://unfccc.int/2860.php/ <br>
 
Kyoto Protocol<br>
http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php<br>
 
==Books==
Natural Capitalism<br>
Limits to Growth<br>
Triple Bottom Line<br>
 
==News Articles==
New Green Business<br>
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/24/smallbusiness/trash_talker_terracycle.fsb/index.htm?postversion=2009032512<br>
http://www.terracycle.net/<br>
 
==Previous Scenarios==
 
==Notes==
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Image:Notes_1.doc<br>
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Image:Notes_2.doc<br>

Latest revision as of 12:31, 17 October 2009

Welcome to the Future of Sustainability in 2030

Group Members

Yojiro Fukaya
Eric Lam
Yunzhu (Carrie) Ma
Hugh Malkin
Kay Mei Tan

Introduction

"Sustainable Development is a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development; and institutional change are all in harmony and enhance both current and future potential to meet human needs and aspirations." from the United Nations Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future (Brundtland Commission) http://www.un-documents.net/ocf-02.htm#I


Or in other words:


Sustainable Development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs


Sustainable development deals with Social Equity, the Economy, and the Environment

Research Questions

Definition
  1. What is the definition of Sustainability?
  2. What is "The Tragedy of the Commons"?
General
  1. What is the history of sustainability?
Envirnoment
  1. What is the rate of Ice melt?
  2. What is the urgent issue relating to sustainability?
  3. What can we do as a individual?
  4. What is measurable?
  5. What are current international regulations regarding sustainability?
Energy
  1. What are the current major ways of power generation
  2. What is the most efficient power generation method in terms of cost and CO2 emission?
  3. What to extent cost of renewable energy will be cheeper?
Technology
  1. What are the key technologies?
  2. Can technological development solve environmental issues dramatically?
Resource
  1. What is the outlook of world energy in the next 20 years?
  2. How much oil is left in the world? When will oil run out?
  3. Is water the Key Limiting Factor?
  4. Will other natural resource, other than energy, play serious roles in the future sustainability?
  5. What are the other threats to sustainability?
  6. How do human beings interact with/affect natural resource?
  7. What are the energy trends in India and China?
  8. What are the impacts of climate change to the future sustainability?
Value
  1. What is the most important value for sustainability?
  2. What is the method evaluating values?
  3. What are the values of the worlds leading polluters?
Pollution
  1. What is the most important pollutant?
  2. Which Fossil Fuels give off most Carbon Dioxide? What are the worst Fossil Fuels?
Population
  1. Is our population growing?
  2. Is there a limit to growth?
Education
  1. What is Education for Sustainable Development (ESD)?

Driving Forces

  1. Sustainable Resources
  2. Alternative Energy
  3. Technological Development
  4. Education
  5. Business
  6. Economy
  7. Regulations for Sustainability
  8. Values
  9. Population
  10. Pollution

Systems Diagram

1st draft

1st draft

Final version


Final version

Scenario Tree

ScenarioTree s2.jpg

Scenarios

  1. Collapse of the Environment
  2. Tragedy of Commons
  3. New Enlightenment
  4. Market Regulation

References

  1. Websites
  2. Books
  3. News Articles
  4. Notes
Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Sustainability_2030&oldid=32523"