Difference between revisions of "Future of the European Union in 2030"

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<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team Composition </h2>
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team Composition</h2>
* [[Arthur Danzi]]
* [[Arthur Danzi]]
* [[User:GudmunudurKr|Gudmundur Kristjansson]] <br/>
* [[User:GudmunudurKr|Gudmundur Kristjansson]] <br/>
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* [[User:Sameeragarwal|Sameer Agarwal]] <br/>  
* [[User:Sameeragarwal|Sameer Agarwal]] <br/>  
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
<br />
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Introduction </h2>


<br /><br />
==Introduction==
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Research Questions </h2>
[[Image:EUFlag.jpg|thumb|The Flag of the European Union|220px]] [[Image:EUMap.png|thumb|European Union 2009|220px]] [[Image:EUCandidatecCountries.png|thumb|Candidate countries|220px]] [[Image:LikelyFutureEnlargements.png|thumb|Likely Future Enlargements|220px]]
The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>


=== EU & Europe Definitions - Mauricio ===
However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.
 
==Research Questions==
 
<b>EU & Europe Definitions</b>
# [[What is the definition of Europe?]]
# [[What is the definition of Europe?]]
# [[What countries are part of the European Union?]]
# [[What countries are part of the European Union?]]
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# [[What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?]]
# [[What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?]]
# [[What is the euro zone?]]
# [[What is the euro zone?]]
 
<b>Politics</b>
=== Politics - GK ===
# [[How is the European Union Governed]]?
# [[How is the European Union Governed]]?
# [[What are the main bodies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the main bodies of the EU?]]
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# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# Are there any planned budget policy changes?
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
<b>Policy</b>
 
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?]]
=== Policy - GK ===
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK]]
# [[What are the Regional policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M]]
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU?]]
# What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
# What are the Regional policies of the EU?
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# What are the foreign policies of the EU?
# [[What are the foreign policies of the EU?]]
 
# [[What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?]]
=== Environment - Sri Hari ===
<b>Environment </b>
# [[What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?]]
# [[What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?]]
# [[EU's response to climate change?]]
# [[EU's response to climate change?]]
 
# [[What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?]]<br>
=== Economics - Sameer ===
<b>Economics</b>
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[How is monetary policy governed within the EU?]]
# [[How is monetary policy governed within the EU?]]
# [[What can cause the instability of the Euro?]]
# [[What can cause the instability of the Euro?]]
# Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
# [[What are trade statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What is the energy profile of the EU?]]
# [[What is the energy profile of the EU?]]
 
<b>Society</b>
=== Society - Arthur ===
# [[Does European Union really bond its members together?]]
# [[Does European Union really bond its members together?]]
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?]]
<b>Terrorism </b>
# [[How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?]]
 
=== Terrorism - Mauricio ===
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU? ]]
# [[How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU? ]]
# [[European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?]]
# [[European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?]]
 
<b>Demographics</b>
=== Demographics - Sameer ===
# [[What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?]]
# [[What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?]]
# [[What are the main religions practiced in the EU?]]
# [[What are the main religions practiced in the EU?]]
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# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?]]
<b>Geopolitics</b>
# What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?
 
=== Geopolitics - Sri Hari ===
# [[Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members]]?
# [[Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members]]?
# [[Enlargement of EU?]]
# [[Enlargement of EU?]]
# [[The future of European Union:Managing Globalization]]
# [[The future of European Union: Managing Globalization]]
Summary: 31 August 2007, Hamburg - Speech by Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy, "The Future of the European Union - Managing Globalization" at the Bucerius Summer School
# [[The future of European Union: Future Trends]]
 
# [[Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?]]
Dear Senator Gedaschko,
# [[EU and Asia?]]
Dear Dr. Sommer,
# [[EU and India?]]
Dear Bucerius Alumni,
# [[EU and China?]]
Ladies and Gentlemen,
# [[EU and Japan?]]
 
# [[EU and South Korea?]]
It is a pleasure to be here, in this magnificent City Hall that embodies Hamburg's hanseatic openness to the world.
# [[EU and US?]]
 
# [[EU and Canada?]]
I have been asked to speak about the future of the European Union. Few subjects could be more relevant, especially after Germany's successful EU Presidency.
# [[EU and Africa?]]
 
# [[EU and Latin America?]]
However, before I enter the complex maze of EU affairs, I want to place the subject in the broader global context.
# [[EU and Russia?]]
 
# [[EU and Middle East?]]
The future of the EU is linked to globalization. The EU-reforms that we just agreed will make our Union more effective and transparent. But they are also indispensable to strengthen us as a global actor.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
Globalization is not an option. It is a fact.
 
First, we live in an age of networks. States, individuals and companies are more and more integrated. The challenges we face - economic integration and migration, energy security and climate change, humanitarian crises, failing states and terrorism - are interdependent. The current turmoil in financial markets clearly shows how interlinked the world has become.
 
A second key feature is that, in many ways, we live in a global village. Information spreads in real-time. Geography is no obstacle to knowledge anymore. Economic attitudes converge. The same mobile phones and fashion brands are present from Brazil to Beirut.
 
So the world has become more homogeneous, but also more heterogeneous. The "flattening" of the earth, as Thomas Friedman calls it, can provoke a backlash. The radicalization in some regions is often a response to globalized "crash-modernization".
 
Still, the challenge today is not stemming the tide of globalization, but making it work properly.
 
The EU has a crucial role to play in this process. It is neither the Trojan horse of globalization nor should it be the scapegoat for the changes it brings. On the contrary: The EU is a tool to manage that change.
 
Over the last 60 years, European integration has been the successful answer to "regional interdependence". Today, the EU is a truly global actor. It unites half a billion people. It is the world's largest economic block, with a quarter of global GDP. 56% of worldwide financial aid comes from Europe. 60,000 European peacekeepers serve from Congo to Kosovo, from Afghanistan to Indonesia.
 
Our seemingly "internal policies" also have a great external impact. The Euro is the world's second currency. We have created the world's largest market, which is not only a magnet for investors, but also "globalizes" European rules, from financial services to mobile phone technology.
 
Managing globalization and strengthening its rules is thus in our vital interest: Pulling up the drawbridges of a "fortress Europe" would be absurd and counterproductive: Globalization is not a zero-sum game. We draw a massive dividend from it. A fifth of Europe's wealth depends on our openness.
 
This call for a "global Europe" is echoed by our partners. One may not go so far as to call the EU "the new City on the Hill". But the vast majority of people around the world - in a recent BBC poll - want a stronger role for the EU.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
Let me dwell on three key issues, without attempting to be complete:
 
First, economic globalization;
 
Secondly, its cultural dimension, which needs a stronger dialogue of civilizations;
 
And finally: The need to protect global security in terms of climate change and sustainable sources of energy.
 
Let me first turn to the economy.
 
Globalization has given us great opportunities. Businesses trade more freely, people and goods travel more cheaply, millions of people have been lifted out of poverty.
 
Yet there is a dark side. Increased competition can lead to the outsourcing of jobs. Technological change enables the enemies of globalization. Inequality breeds discontent.
 
The European Commission has made a clear choice in embracing globalization, even in difficult times when this was not exactly popular.
 
At the same time, this commitment to open markets also means that we defend Europe's interests, be in bilaterally in trade relations with China, on energy issues with Russia or on the multilateral level.
 
This EU strategy of "making globalization work" is reflected in the ongoing Doha Round of world trade liberalization. Bringing Doha to a successful conclusion must be a priority for all of us, including for the emerging markets. This largest trade deal ever could generate more than 200 billion US Dollars of gains annually. More than half of that would go to the developing world.
 
The EU has been in the lead to make an agreement possible. We have gone a long way on sensitive issues like agriculture. And while the talks remain difficult, it is still possible to achieve a positive package, covering industrial liberalization, agricultural market access and other matters like services and competition rules.
 
But Doha as such is not sufficient to strengthen the fabric of globalization. In addition to trade, we need to enhance international aid. That is an investment. We cannot build peace and prosperity without basic freedom from want.
 
The EU is already the world's largest donor. But we need to do more. Our goal is to raise aid to 0.7% of our Gross National Income by 2015, and to improve the links between aid and other policies, such as trade, climate change and human security. But we will not succeed alone. We count on our international partners to deliver.
 
A third key step to strengthen the global economy is using the full potential of the transatlantic marketplace. This is not an exclusive relationship but the world's most powerful economic engine. It accounts for 60% of global GDP. Together we cover 40% of world trade, with exchanges worth over €1.7 billion a day.
 
Still, there is a lot we can do to improve our relations, in particular in dismantling non-tariff barriers and dealing with regulatory issues. The new EU-US Transatlantic Economic Council, set up under German Presidency, will play an important role in that regard.
 
Let me emphasize that the transatlantic partnership is - of course - far from being only economic. We work with Washington on all major international issues. I will touch on some of them later.
 
Finally, to be fit for globalization, we also need to continue internal economic reforms. The efforts of the last years are already paying off, especially in Germany. Europe is not a sclerotic underachiever. Its GDP growth is actually outperforming the US and Japan.
 
The EU reform program, the Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs, is critical for that. It fully unleashes our internal market, helps us to regulate smartly and incites Member States to deregulate labour markets and focus their welfare systems. The incoming EU-Presidencies, including economic heavy-weights like France, are fully committed to these ambitious goals.
 
Last but not least, we invest more in innovation, following what Chancellor Merkel has called Europe's "creative imperative". By 2010, Member States want to spend 3% of their GNP on research and development. That is vital to stay on the cutting edge.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
Opening our economies, making globalization fair and investing in people is not sufficient. The last years have shown that globalization cannot succeed without a stronger dialogue of civilizations.
 
A "clash of civilizations" is not inevitable. But we must make sure it does not become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The real threat is a clash of ignorance and intolerance.
 
Europe cannot turn a blind eye to the anger and frustration felt in some regions and particularly Muslim nations. Also, the EU's motto "unity in diversity" hasn't been fully achieved internally.
 
Vice versa, other nations cannot ignore our concerns about their economic stalemate and political radicalization, which affect us all.
 
Therefore, we need a vigorous but peaceful dialogue of civilizations. This dialogue must have liberty, dignity and respect at its core. Both the freedom of speech and the freedom of religion are universal and non-negotiable. More fundamentally, violence is never a remedy for perceived wrong.
 
The EU promotes tolerance, human security and good governance wherever we act around the world, and in particular in our relations with our immediate neighbours to the East and South.
 
The EU itself is built on this commitment, despite all shortcomings. This victory of tolerance is the "secret of our own success", which we offer to others.
 
That is not blue-eyed idealism or "liberal imperialism". It is a strategic necessity, for us and our partners alike. Kofi Annan got it right when he noted that without respect for human rights, there could neither be security nor development.
 
Obviously, one cannot simply export or impose freedom, market economics or democratic institutions.
 
But what the EU can and must do is use its transformative power and make sure that reform can grow from within. We want to foster societal change rather than "regime change". That is clearly a long-term project. Supporting democracy is not like making instant coffee, as my predecessor Lord Patten said.
 
Helping the forces of moderation and modernity is vital to protect human security. It is also critical for the functioning of globalization as such. Only stable stakeholders are responsible partners. There is no open world without open societies.
 
A key weapon against instability and the "clash of ignorance" is education. For example, one third of our Southern neighbours are below 15 years old. That figure speaks for itself.
 
We are therefore using the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and the European Neighbourhood Policy and special platforms like the Anna Lindh Foundation in Alexandria to reform education systems. We co-fund the training of 35.000 elementary school teachers in Egypt alone, to give you just one example.
 
Supporting open societies is particularly important to fight another scourge of our times: Global terrorism.
 
This is not a matter of "the West against the rest". The problem of extremism spans the globe. In New York and Bali, London, Baghdad and Madrid, people have been the victims of horrific mass murder.
 
We can only tackle this together: Through better policing and intelligence-sharing - but without undermining the freedoms on which our societies are based.
 
Most fundamentally, we must dry up the pool of supporters of extremism. Fighting terrorism is ultimately a battle for the hearts and minds. That is why open dialogue, coupled to modernization support, is so critical.
 
A recent poll by the Pew Foundation across the Muslim world is encouraging in this regard. A vast majority in these countries strongly opposes terrorism. We must build on that.
 
Tackling the root causes of terrorism also means we must deal with issues that serve as a pretext for extremists, like the Middle East conflict.
 
The EU plays a major role as a trusted partner for both sides and as a Member of the Middle East Quartet. We remain committed to laying the groundwork for an independent, viable and democratic Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza, living side by side with Israel in peace and security, as a step towards comprehensive regional peace.
 
There is now new momentum in the peace process: An international Middle East meeting in the fall is being prepared, which should support the bilateral discussions towards a lasting settlement, which have resumed.
 
These direct talks between Prime Minister Olmert and President Abbas are absolutely critical. They touch upon the core issues, like final borders, the status of Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees.
 
Similarly, the dialogue between Israel and the Arab states on their Peace initiative is an important track that we support.
 
Helping the development of the Palestinian territories is another key part of this puzzle. We are working closely with former Prime Minister Blair and his team. The EU has always been at the forefront of these efforts, with a mix of aid (we are the biggest international donor), strategic state-building support and advice on security sector reform.
 
So far in 2007, the Commission has provided over 400 million euros in support to the Palestinians, not least to families in need. The Temporary International Mechanism (TIM), which we created, is the vehicle of choice for many donors in a complex situation.
 
Equally, our border assistance mission at the Rafah crossing can play a key role for the Palestinian economy. The crossing must now be reopened to alleviate the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
The Middle East Peace Process is just one example that shows how crucial it is to engage with partners, especially in our neighbourhood.
 
We are therefore in the process of strengthening our European Neighbourhood Policy for which I hold special responsibility.
 
The ENP's rationale is to strengthen prosperity and stability to our East and South through Europe's gravitational pull. It is in our interest that our neighbourhood should be well-governed and prosperous. And it is in our partners' interest to have EU support for their reforms - a classic "win-win" partnership.
 
The ENP has expanded our co-operation and produced tangible successes. We draw on a broad array of tools, especially tailor-made Action Plans for reforms.
 
And we have recently proposed new ways to make the ENP even more effective, attractive and focused, in four core areas:
 
Economic integration, also meaning better market access for our partners;
 
Mobility: This means less complex visa rules and Mobility Partnerships, agreements between the EU and neighbours encouraging legal migration and combating illegal migration - a big step for us.
 
Thirdly energy - I will come to this in a second;
 
And finally increased aid for good governance in the best-performing countries.
 
The ENP will thus remain a dynamic process. Next Monday I am bringing ministers from the EU and the Neighbourhood together to debate how to drive this project forward.
 
Generally, our policy of engagement around the EU brings clear results: The freeing of seven Bulgarian medics by Libya proves that.
 
I am happy that my relentless efforts over the last two-and-a-half years, and those of Germany and many other countries, have brought success.
 
We have found a solution for the treatment of the HIV-infected children; we help to ameliorate Libya's medical system; and we have thus taken away a stumbling block for Libya's integration into the international community. This is clearly a success for the EU's foreign policy
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
This brings me to my third main point:
 
Today, safeguarding global security and prosperity also means working for reliable energy relations and sustainable development
 
This is critical to avoid mortgaging future generations, but also to ensure a level playing-field for globalization today. Think about the impact of global warming, price hikes on resources and environmental disasters, in particular on developing economies.
 
A stronger EU energy policy is especially important. The EU is likely to import 70% of its energy in 2030, compared to 50% today.
 
In the light of this, the EU Spring Council sent a strong signal of leadership and adopted a comprehensive "energy package". It not only includes domestic actions such as the finalization of Europe's internal energy market, promoting efficiency and renewable sources and advancing technologies. Given our dependence on foreign sources, it also places great emphasis on external energy relations.
 
Already today, energy matters are a central feature of our relations with producer and transit countries, from China to Central Asia, from the Gulf to Western Africa. They range from better market access and ensuring fair competition to cooperation on efficiency and aid on transport infrastructure. We are now exploring the feasibility of a broader neighbourhood energy agreement.
 
Stable energy markets work in everyone's favour. This is not just a matter of security of supply. Our partners have a clear stake in reliable business links and European investment and technology. This holds, not least, for our relationship with Russia.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
Energy security is inextricably linked with the issue of climate change.
 
There can't be any doubt that man's activities are responsible for global warming. Last year's review by Sir Nicholas Stern estimates its costs at 20% of global GDP when extrapolating wider risks. At the same time the cost of action to avoid the worst impacts can be limited to 1% of global GDP per year.
 
That shows that we must act - and that we can act!
 
The EU is at the forefront of combating climate change. We now agreed to cut carbon-dioxide emissions by 20% and to raise the share of renewable energy sources to 20%, both by the year 2020.
 
Also, Europe's system of emissions trading has blazed a trail in using market forces to protect the environment. That is why various players, including e.g. California, consider joining this system.
 
Our ambitious EU targets were important steps on the way to the international G8-agreement in Heiligendamm this spring. We now need to make sure that this deal is implemented. We will continue to use all levers of our "green diplomacy" to that end, especially in the run-up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali in December
 
In particular, we need to make sure that emerging economies are on board too. By 2020, developing countries' emissions will surpass those of developed countries. At the same time, it is the poorest that would suffer most from the impact of global warming. That is why we are integrating climate change into our development policy.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
These examples clearly prove one thing:
 
The EU has policies and institutions that work. We are not starting from scratch or re-inventing the wheel of diplomacy on EU-level. Our job is to make existing policies more effective, more coherent and more visible. In the past, the EU often did not punch its real weight. That needs to change!
 
The improvements foreseen in the EU Reform Treaty are therefore crucial. Germany has very skillfully negotiated this deal. This Treaty is a smart adaptation of our successful model. It does not create a "Super-state". But it helps us to better match our potential, especially in the global arena:
 
Firstly, the future High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy will also serve as Vice-President of the EU Commission. He, or she, will be the answer to Henry Kissinger's question: "When I want to speak to Europe, who do I call?"
 
This "dual hat" will ensure that the EU draws on its toolbox in an even more coherent way. The High Representative will also chair the Council of Foreign Ministers and thus strengthen our strategic outlook.
 
The fact that we will have an EU with full legal personality rather than the twins of "Union" and "Community" is also helpful. It will make us more visible and strengthen our negotiating power.
 
Madeleine Albright once said: "To understand Europe, you have to be a genius". The new treaty means we need fewer of these geniuses - fortunately!
 
To support the High Representative and Vice-President, we will create a European External Action Service. That will be our platform abroad. Already today, I am responsible for 134 Commission Delegations across the globe, with 6000 staff representing EU interests from political affairs to trade and aid. That is a firm basis to build on.
 
In addition, climate protection and energy solidarity will be taken up as explicit objectives of the Union, responding to the challenges I sketched.
 
All this will strengthen our stance on the world stage. Europe is not just a soft power, but an increasingly smart power employing all instruments at its disposal.
 
President Sarkozy stressed this global role of the EU in his speech last Monday and particularly pointed to the need for stronger EU crisis management and defence instruments. He particularly called for a new European Security Strategy.
 
It is good to see that France sees EU foreign policy as an absolute priority. I am sure that France's Presidency next year will give us new input in this regard.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,
 
Beyond the field of foreign policy, the new Treaty responds to the crisis of trust that the Union suffered from in the last two years.
 
The Treaty will make the Union more effective and democratic: The European Parliament will acquire an even bigger role, becoming a true co-lawmaker. A new "double majority" for Council decisions, taking population size into account, will be introduced. More decisions will be taken by that majority rather than unanimity. Also, legislative discussions among Ministers will be open to the public.
 
At the same time, we are giving the EU a clearer focus: Its competences and tasks will be better defined. The "subsidiarity test" for each measure - the test whether an EU action is really indispensable - will be even stricter. This responds to worries that the Union would be "too interventionist".
 
In short: The new Treaty strengthens and streamlines the EU, while keeping the institutional mix that served us well over half a century.
 
Building on the results of Germany's Presidency, we just kicked off the so-called Intergovernmental Conference. It is translating our political consensus into legal details. I am confident that the Portuguese Presidency can reach an agreement on a treaty text by the Summit on 18/19 October. This would enable Member States to ratify the Treaty by June 2009, in time for the next European elections.
 
Still, the reforms I sketched are not an end in themselves. They are the basis for a "Europe of results". The legitimacy of the EU not just depends on how it acts, but especially on what it does for its people.
 
Our citizens are not "against the EU". But they rightly want a better Union that delivers. So we do need the right institutions. But above all, we need the political will to act together.
 
Therefore, the EU is not the problem. It is - already - part of the solution. That is the message that we - and in particular our Member States - must communicate in the next months.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen, let me conclude.
 
European integration is a success story. It has built permanent peace between Europeans, laid the basis for their prosperity and framed the re-unification of our continent.
 
But we cannot rest on these laurels. The Berlin Declaration, adopted in March, states: "Europe's citizens have united for the better." That is not a nostalgic look to the past. It is a call for action.
 
The EU is uniquely placed to deal with new trans-national challenges. In the 21st century, managing globalization is its new raison d'être.
 
Let me thus salute the Bucerius Class of 2007. You are "Globalization Managers" in the true sense of the word. I wish you well in your future endeavors. I am sure that you will carry the famous "Bucerius spirit" across the globe.
 
And I hope I have convinced you that Europe - rather than sliding into obscurity - is rising to the challenges we all face and helping to shape the new world order.
 
As China's Ambassador in Brussels recently said: The EU is one of those things which happen only every four or five hundred years."
 
That is the achievement on which we must build. Thank you.
 
Ref: SP07-178EN
EU source: European Commission
UN forum:
Date: 31/8/2007
Source: europa-eu-un.org
# What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
# Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?  
# Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?  
# In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
# If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
# How will EU and China relationship develop?
# How will EU and India relationship develop?
# How will EU and US relationship develop?
# How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
# What role does Africa play for Europe?
# [[What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?]]
# [[What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?]]
# Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
# How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?
=== Infrastructure - Arthur ===
# Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?
<br/>
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Systems Diagram </h2>
<br /><br />
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Driving Forces </h2>


=== Political Driving Forces - GK & Maurizio ===
==Numbers that Matter==
# [[World Unification]]
As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.
# [[Threat of war]]
*[http://www.slideshare.net/persight/numbers-that-matter-muslim-demographics-the-truth Muslim Demographics - The Truth]
# [[The Rise of BRIC Economies or BRIICS (includes Indoneasia & South Africa)]]
# [[Self interest and priorities of each state]]
# [[Influence of UK, France & Germany]]


=== Technological Driving Forces - GK & Maurizio ===
==Driving Forces==
# [[Public attitude to science and technology]]
<b>Political Driving Forces</b>
# [[Mobility]]
*[[Political Stability in Europe]]
# [[Nanotechnology]]
*[[Institutional & Bureaucratic Dynamics]]
# [[Cost of new technology]]
*[[To be a world power house]]
# [[Balancing clean & efficient technology against cost]]
*[[Turkey Joining the EU]]
*[[Movement Towards World Unification]]
*[[Islamic Fundamentalism]]
*[[Terrorism]]
<b>Technological Driving Forces</b>
*[[Alternative sources of energy]]
<b>Environmental Driving Forces</b>
*[[Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices]]
*[[Pressure from developing countries]]
*[[Effects of climate change]]
<b>Economic Driving Forces</b>
*[[EU as a Counterweight to America]]
*[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
*[[The increasing globalization of markets]]
<b>Societal Driving Forces</b>
*[[Increasing Mobility]]
*[[Aging Europe]]
*[[Unemployment]]
*[[Racism]]


=== Environmental Driving Forces ===
==System Diagram==
# [[Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU]]
[[Image:EU_Systems_Diagram.jpg|Systems Diagram|800px]]
# [[Scarcity of Water in the EU]]
# [[Increasing need to clean energy]]
# [[Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices]]
# [[pressure from developing countries]]
# [[Effects of climate change]]


=== Economic Driving Forces - Sameer ===
== Inference matrix ==
# [[EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.]]
{| class="wikitable"
# [[Threat of total financial meltdown]]
|-
# [[European integration]]  
!
# [[European dependence on Russian Gas]]
! [[The Blame Game]]
# [[Non EU trading partners]]
! [[New Beginning]]
# [[Availability of natural resources]]
! [[The Gilded Cage]]
|-
|<i>Governance</i>
|National
|[[Network]]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supranational_union Supranational union]
|-
|<i>Economy</i>
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession Recession]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Fast Growth]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Slow Growth]
|-
|<i>Identity</i>
|[[Inward]]
|[[Outward]]
| -
|-
|<i>Immigration</i>
|[[Closed Border]]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_borders Open Border]
|[[As is]]
|-
|<i>Boundary</i>
|Break Up
|Expansion
|[http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp Slow Decline]
|-
|<i>Financial</i>
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism System Socialism]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_economy Mix]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism Capitalism]
|-
|<i>Commerce/Trade</i>
|Restricted
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|-
|<i>Resources/Energy</i>
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|[[Alternative sources of energy]]
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|-
|<i>Political Alignment</i>
|Reactive
|Liberal / Progressive
|Liberal / Progressive
|-
|<i>Population Change</i>
|[[Aging Europe]]
|[[Increasing Mobility]]/Immigration
|[[Aging Europe]]
|-
|}


=== Societal Driving Forces - Arthur ===
==Scenario Tree==
# [[EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications]]
[[Image:FishEUScenarios.png|800px|Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe]]
# [[Increasing Mobility]]
# [[Aging population]]
# [[Changes in Religion buildup of Europe]]
# [[Aging Europe]]
# [[Availability of skilled & non-skilled labour]]
<br />


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Scenarios</h2>
==Scenarios==
<!-- # [[Engraving common ones and zeros]] -->
These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">References</h2>


=== Scenario Reports ===
<b>[[The Blame Game]]</b><br>
* [http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_04_28_papers/scenarios.pdf NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary]
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.
* [ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/ntw_scenarios_report_en.pdf New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)]
* [http://www.mcrit.com/espon_scenarios/files/documents/e2020fd.pdf European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)]
* [http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=326381&lan=EN Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States]
* [http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/pubdocs/2008/40/en/1/ef0840en.pdf Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)]


=== Economic Reports ===
* [http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]


=== Presentations ===
<b>[[The Gilded Cage]]</b><br>
* [http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


=== News & Other Sources ===
* [http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
* [http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
* [http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
* [http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Interview Questions</h2>
<b>[[New Beginning]]</b><br>
# [[What are the main political issues currently facing the European Union]]
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.
# [[What are the main political forces in the European Union]]
<br>
# [[What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU? ]]
<br>
# [[Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?]]


==References==


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Meeting Agenda</h2>
<b>Scenario Reports</b>
September 9, 2009 - 17:00 to 18:30<br />
*[http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_04_28_papers/scenarios.pdf NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary]
September 14, 2009 - 14:00 to 15:00
*[ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/ntw_scenarios_report_en.pdf New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)]
*[http://www.mcrit.com/espon_scenarios/files/documents/e2020fd.pdf European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)]
*[http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=326381&lan=EN Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States]
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/pubdocs/2008/40/en/1/ef0840en.pdf Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)]
*[http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/publications/98/1378/file_2995/espon3.2_60p._final_16-7-2007-c.pdf Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe to 2030]
*[http://www.mcrit.com/scenarios/index.htm Could we imagine another future for Europe? (very good resource)]
<b>Economic Reports & Statistics</b>
*[http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]
*[http://www.thud.nl/wkmaps/ Europe Interactive Map - Can compare different EU region]
<b>Presentations</b>
*[http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]
<b>Research Papers and Books</b>
*Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
*Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
*Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
*Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
*Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
*Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
*Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
*Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
*Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
*Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
*Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
*Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
*Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London
<b>News & Other Sources</b>
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
*[http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
*[http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
*[http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]
*[http://endofmen.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/why-ireland-should-vote-no-to-the-lisbon-treaty/ Why Ireland should vote No to the Lisbon Treaty]
<b>Videos</b>
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU The European Union - the New Soviet Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I8M1T-GgRU&NR=1&feature=fvwp Barroso: European Union is 'empire']
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl_yr0lOSbU&NR=1 Should the UK leave the European Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L0ld_Rjh38&NR=1 Interview - Jose Manuel Barroso]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OvguckX9V0 Economic future of EU is Green" Philippe Lamberts from EGP on EU Elections]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CchEH-zTm8 Davos Open Forum 2006 - The Future of Europe in the World]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLaWTkEUOH4 EU European Union Strasbourg Parliament Poster Pentagrams]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B5xgtwu9yw The Rise of the European Superstate]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiFFAcfkeOQ An alternative view of the European Union]
*[http://www.radioradicale.it/scheda/277976 Which future for Europe? The Regression of the EU into an Anti-historic Europe of 27 Little Fatherlands - 3 Day Conference]
*[http://fora.tv/2008/06/01/Uncommon_Knowledge_Daniel_Pipes#Daniel_Pipes_-_The_Uncertain_Future_of_Muslims_in_Europe The Uncertain Future of Europe (Eurabia?)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p9VC_P3Gf8 EU Takeover & the Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kr0Foq3CQE MEP Exposes The EU Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlrESONoYR4 The Lisbon Treaty is a Fascist Conspiracy]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzf7GUmbsdM Will the Lisbon Treaty achieve its goals?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Lisbon+Treaty&search_type=&aq=f Jim Corr on The Lisbon Treaty & The New World Order.]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC4Mn9Grs3w Frost over the World - Ireland's Lisbon treaty vote-2 Oct 09]
*[http://videolectures.net/iswc06_fountain_pc/ The Semantic Web and Networked Governance: Promise and Challenges]
*[http://www.vimeo.com/4397158 Program on Networked Governance CCCSN Seminar 2009-04-13: Jennifer Chayes]

Latest revision as of 16:08, 17 October 2009

Team Composition

Introduction

The Flag of the European Union
European Union 2009
Candidate countries
Likely Future Enlargements

The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>

However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions

  1. What is the definition of Europe?
  2. What countries are part of the European Union?
  3. What is the history of the European Union?
  4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
  5. What is the euro zone?

Politics

  1. How is the European Union Governed?
  2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
  3. How is the European parliament elected?
  4. How is the European parliament structured?
  5. How do the countries work together?
  6. How does the EU take decisions?
  7. How does the EU tick?
  8. How is the EU budget managed?
  9. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
  10. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
  11. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?

Policy

  1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?
  2. What are the Energy policies of the EU?
  3. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
  4. What are the Environment policies of the EU?
  5. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
  6. What are the foreign policies of the EU?
  7. What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?

Environment

  1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
  2. EU's response to climate change?
  3. What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?

Economics

  1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
  2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
  3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
  4. What are trade statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society

  1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
  2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
  3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?

Terrorism

  1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
  2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
  3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics

  1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
  2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
  3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
  4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?

Geopolitics

  1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
  2. Enlargement of EU?
  3. The future of European Union: Managing Globalization
  4. The future of European Union: Future Trends
  5. Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?
  6. EU and Asia?
  7. EU and India?
  8. EU and China?
  9. EU and Japan?
  10. EU and South Korea?
  11. EU and US?
  12. EU and Canada?
  13. EU and Africa?
  14. EU and Latin America?
  15. EU and Russia?
  16. EU and Middle East?
  17. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?

Numbers that Matter

As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

System Diagram

Systems Diagram

Inference matrix

The Blame Game New Beginning The Gilded Cage
Governance National Network Supranational union
Economy Recession Fast Growth Slow Growth
Identity Inward Outward -
Immigration Closed Border Open Border As is
Boundary Break Up Expansion Slow Decline
Financial System Socialism Mix Capitalism
Commerce/Trade Restricted Free Free
Resources/Energy Energy Scarcity in Europe Alternative sources of energy Energy Scarcity in Europe
Political Alignment Reactive Liberal / Progressive Liberal / Progressive
Population Change Aging Europe Increasing Mobility/Immigration Aging Europe

Scenario Tree

Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe

Scenarios

These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.


The Blame Game
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.


The Gilded Cage
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


New Beginning
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.

References

Scenario Reports

Economic Reports & Statistics

Presentations

Research Papers and Books

  • Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
  • Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
  • Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
  • Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
  • Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
  • Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
  • Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London

News & Other Sources

Videos

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