Difference between revisions of "Future of the European Union in 2030"

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<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team Composition </h2>
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team Composition</h2>
* [[Arthur Danzi]]
* [[Arthur Danzi]]
* [[User:GudmunudurKr|Gudmundur Kristjansson]] <br/>
* [[User:GudmunudurKr|Gudmundur Kristjansson]] <br/>
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* [[User:Sameeragarwal|Sameer Agarwal]] <br/>  
* [[User:Sameeragarwal|Sameer Agarwal]] <br/>  
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
<br />
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Introduction </h2>


<br /><br />
==Introduction==
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Research Questions </h2>
[[Image:EUFlag.jpg|thumb|The Flag of the European Union|220px]] [[Image:EUMap.png|thumb|European Union 2009|220px]] [[Image:EUCandidatecCountries.png|thumb|Candidate countries|220px]] [[Image:LikelyFutureEnlargements.png|thumb|Likely Future Enlargements|220px]]
The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>


=== EU & Europe Definitions - Mauricio ===
However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.
 
==Research Questions==
 
<b>EU & Europe Definitions</b>
# [[What is the definition of Europe?]]
# [[What is the definition of Europe?]]
# [[What countries are part of the European Union?]]
# [[What countries are part of the European Union?]]
Line 17: Line 20:
# [[What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?]]
# [[What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?]]
# [[What is the euro zone?]]
# [[What is the euro zone?]]
 
<b>Politics</b>
=== Politics - GK ===
# [[How is the European Union Governed]]?
# [[How is the European Union Governed]]?
# [[What are the main bodies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the main bodies of the EU?]]
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# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# Are there any planned budget policy changes?
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
<b>Policy</b>
 
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?]]
=== Policy - GK ===
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK]]
# [[What are the Regional policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M]]
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU?]]
# What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
# What are the Regional policies of the EU?
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# What are the foreign policies of the EU?
# [[What are the foreign policies of the EU?]]
 
# [[What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?]]
=== Environment - Sri Hari ===
<b>Environment </b>
# [[What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?]]
# [[What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?]]
# EU's response to climate change?
# [[EU's response to climate change?]]
The way forward for the EU is an integrated energy and climate change policy, as the burning of fossil fuels is a major contributor to climate change. EU leaders endorsed such a policy in March 2007. This demonstrates Europe’s global leadership in tackling climate change while paving the way for the EU to increase its security of supply and strengthen its competitiveness.
# [[What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?]]<br>
An integrated energy and climate change policy signals the launch of a new industrial revolution to transform the way we produce and use energy, and the types of energy we use. The goal is to move to a climate-friendly economy based on a combination of low-carbon technologies and energy sources.
<b>Economics</b>
 
To limit global warming to 2 °C, global emissions of greenhouse gases will need to stop increasing within 10 to 15 years and then be cut to around half of 1990 levels by 2050. The EU is striving for a new global agreement to reach these goals. As a first step, it considers that industrialised countries should collectively cut their emissions of greenhouse gases to 30% below 1990 levels by 2020. Developing countries, such as China and India, will also need to start limiting the growth in their emissions.
To underline its determination and set an example for its partners to follow, the EU has agreed to cut its own greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% by 2020 regardless of what other countries do. The EU plans to achieve this reduction through actions foreseen in the new integrated energy and climate policy together with measures already in place.
 
The EU leaders have decided to:
• save 20% of energy consumption compared with projections for 2020 by improving energy efficiency;
• increase to 20% by 2020 the share of renewable energies in overall energy consumption, thus almost tripling the current level;
• increase tenfold — to at least 10% — the share of biofuels in overall petrol and diesel consumption by 2020, provided that sustainable, ‘second-generation’ biofuels from non-food crops become commercially available;
• develop and promote low- or even zero-emitting technologies, including carbon capture and storage — i.e. preventing CO2 entering the atmosphere by capturing it and storing it underground in depleted gas fields or old salt mines — so that these can make a major contribution to reducing emissions by 2020;
• better integrate EU energy markets, i.e. moving towards more competitive, Europe-wide electricity and gas markets;
• better integrate EU energy policy with other policies, not just with environment policy, but also with policies such as research, agriculture and trade;
• increase international cooperation: if the EU can take a common approach on energy, and articulate it with a common voice, it can lead global debate.
 
The starting point is a three-year energy action plan for Europe for the period 2007–09 designed to set the EU — and its citizens — on the right course to combine the fight against climate change with greater security of energy supply and continued economic growth.
Source: The Way Forward: an integrated approach, Europe on the move, European commission, 2007
 
=== Economics - Sameer ===
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[How is monetary policy governed within the EU?]]
# [[How is monetary policy governed within the EU?]]
# [[What can cause the instability of the Euro?]]
# [[What can cause the instability of the Euro?]]
# Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
# [[What are trade statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What is the energy profile of the EU?]]
# [[What is the energy profile of the EU?]]
 
<b>Society</b>
=== Society - Arthur ===
# [[Does European Union really bond its members together?]]
# [[Does European Union really bond its members together?]]
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?]]
<b>Terrorism </b>
# [[How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?]]
 
=== Terrorism - Mauricio ===
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU? ]]
# [[How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU? ]]
# [[European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?]]
# [[European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?]]
 
<b>Demographics</b>
=== Demographics - Sameer ===
# [[What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?]]
# [[What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?]]
# [[What are the main religions practiced in the EU?]]
# [[What are the main religions practiced in the EU?]]
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# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?]]
<b>Geopolitics</b>
# What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?
 
=== Geopolitics - Sri Hari ===
# [[Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members]]?
# [[Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members]]?
# [[Enlargement of EU?]]
# [[Enlargement of EU?]]
# What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
# [[The future of European Union: Managing Globalization]]
# Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?  
# [[The future of European Union: Future Trends]]
# Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?  
# [[Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?]]
# In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?  
# [[EU and Asia?]]
# If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
# [[EU and India?]]
# How will EU and China relationship develop?
# [[EU and China?]]
# How will EU and India relationship develop?
# [[EU and Japan?]]
# How will EU and US relationship develop?
# [[EU and South Korea?]]
# How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
# [[EU and US?]]
# What role does Africa play for Europe?
# [[EU and Canada?]]
# [[EU and Africa?]]
# [[EU and Latin America?]]
# [[EU and Russia?]]
# [[EU and Middle East?]]
# [[What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?]]
# [[What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?]]
# Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
# How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?
=== Infrastructure - Arthur ===
# Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?
<br/>
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Systems Diagram </h2>
<br /><br />
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Driving Forces </h2>


=== Political Driving Forces ===
==Numbers that Matter==
# [[World Unification]]
As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.
# [[Threat of war]]
*[http://www.slideshare.net/persight/numbers-that-matter-muslim-demographics-the-truth Muslim Demographics - The Truth]
# [[The Rise of BRIC Economies]]
# [[Self interest and priorities of each state]]


=== Technological Driving Forces ===
==Driving Forces==
# [[Public attitude to science and technology]]
<b>Political Driving Forces</b>
# [[Mobility]]
*[[Political Stability in Europe]]
# [[Nanotechnology]]
*[[Institutional & Bureaucratic Dynamics]]
# [[Cost of new technology]]
*[[To be a world power house]]
*[[Turkey Joining the EU]]
*[[Movement Towards World Unification]]
*[[Islamic Fundamentalism]]
*[[Terrorism]]
<b>Technological Driving Forces</b>
*[[Alternative sources of energy]]
<b>Environmental Driving Forces</b>
*[[Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices]]
*[[Pressure from developing countries]]
*[[Effects of climate change]]
<b>Economic Driving Forces</b>
*[[EU as a Counterweight to America]]
*[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
*[[The increasing globalization of markets]]
<b>Societal Driving Forces</b>
*[[Increasing Mobility]]
*[[Aging Europe]]
*[[Unemployment]]
*[[Racism]]


=== Environmental Driving Forces ===
==System Diagram==
# [[Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU]]
[[Image:EU_Systems_Diagram.jpg|Systems Diagram|800px]]
# [[Scarcity of Water in the EU]]
# [[Increasing need to clean energy]]
# [[Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices]]


=== Economic Driving Forces ===
== Inference matrix ==
# [[EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.]]
{| class="wikitable"
# [[Threat of total financial meltdown]]
|-
# [[European integration]]  
!
# [[European dependence on Russian Gas]]
! [[The Blame Game]]
! [[New Beginning]]
! [[The Gilded Cage]]
|-
|<i>Governance</i>
|National
|[[Network]]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supranational_union Supranational union]
|-
|<i>Economy</i>
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession Recession]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Fast Growth]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Slow Growth]
|-
|<i>Identity</i>
|[[Inward]]
|[[Outward]]
| -
|-
|<i>Immigration</i>
|[[Closed Border]]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_borders Open Border]
|[[As is]]
|-
|<i>Boundary</i>
|Break Up
|Expansion
|[http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp Slow Decline]
|-
|<i>Financial</i>
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism System Socialism]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_economy Mix]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism Capitalism]
|-
|<i>Commerce/Trade</i>
|Restricted
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|-
|<i>Resources/Energy</i>
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|[[Alternative sources of energy]]
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|-
|<i>Political Alignment</i>
|Reactive
|Liberal / Progressive
|Liberal / Progressive
|-
|<i>Population Change</i>
|[[Aging Europe]]
|[[Increasing Mobility]]/Immigration
|[[Aging Europe]]
|-
|}


=== Societal Driving Forces ===
==Scenario Tree==
# [[EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications]]
[[Image:FishEUScenarios.png|800px|Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe]]
# [[Increasing Mobility]]
# [[Aging population]]
# [[Changes in Religion buildup of Europe]]
# [[Aging Europe]]
<br />


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Scenarios</h2>
==Scenarios==
<!-- # [[Engraving common ones and zeros]] -->
These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">References</h2>


=== Scenario Reports ===
<b>[[The Blame Game]]</b><br>
* [http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_04_28_papers/scenarios.pdf NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary]
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.
* [ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/ntw_scenarios_report_en.pdf New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)]
* [http://www.mcrit.com/espon_scenarios/files/documents/e2020fd.pdf European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)]
* [http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=326381&lan=EN Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States]
* [http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/pubdocs/2008/40/en/1/ef0840en.pdf Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)]


=== Economic Reports ===
* [http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]


=== Presentations ===
<b>[[The Gilded Cage]]</b><br>
* [http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


=== News & Other Sources ===
* [http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
* [http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
* [http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
* [http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Interview Questions</h2>
<b>[[New Beginning]]</b><br>
# [[What are the main political issues currently facing the European Union]]
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.
# [[What are the main political forces in the European Union]]
<br>
# [[What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU? ]]
<br>
# [[Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?]]


==References==


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Meeting Agenda</h2>
<b>Scenario Reports</b>
September 9, 2009 - 17:00 to 18:30<br />
*[http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_04_28_papers/scenarios.pdf NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary]
September 14, 2009 - 14:00 to 15:00
*[ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/ntw_scenarios_report_en.pdf New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)]
*[http://www.mcrit.com/espon_scenarios/files/documents/e2020fd.pdf European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)]
*[http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=326381&lan=EN Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States]
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/pubdocs/2008/40/en/1/ef0840en.pdf Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)]
*[http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/publications/98/1378/file_2995/espon3.2_60p._final_16-7-2007-c.pdf Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe to 2030]
*[http://www.mcrit.com/scenarios/index.htm Could we imagine another future for Europe? (very good resource)]
<b>Economic Reports & Statistics</b>
*[http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]
*[http://www.thud.nl/wkmaps/ Europe Interactive Map - Can compare different EU region]
<b>Presentations</b>
*[http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]
<b>Research Papers and Books</b>
*Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
*Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
*Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
*Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
*Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
*Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
*Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
*Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
*Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
*Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
*Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
*Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
*Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London
<b>News & Other Sources</b>
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
*[http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
*[http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
*[http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]
*[http://endofmen.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/why-ireland-should-vote-no-to-the-lisbon-treaty/ Why Ireland should vote No to the Lisbon Treaty]
<b>Videos</b>
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU The European Union - the New Soviet Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I8M1T-GgRU&NR=1&feature=fvwp Barroso: European Union is 'empire']
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl_yr0lOSbU&NR=1 Should the UK leave the European Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L0ld_Rjh38&NR=1 Interview - Jose Manuel Barroso]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OvguckX9V0 Economic future of EU is Green" Philippe Lamberts from EGP on EU Elections]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CchEH-zTm8 Davos Open Forum 2006 - The Future of Europe in the World]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLaWTkEUOH4 EU European Union Strasbourg Parliament Poster Pentagrams]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B5xgtwu9yw The Rise of the European Superstate]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiFFAcfkeOQ An alternative view of the European Union]
*[http://www.radioradicale.it/scheda/277976 Which future for Europe? The Regression of the EU into an Anti-historic Europe of 27 Little Fatherlands - 3 Day Conference]
*[http://fora.tv/2008/06/01/Uncommon_Knowledge_Daniel_Pipes#Daniel_Pipes_-_The_Uncertain_Future_of_Muslims_in_Europe The Uncertain Future of Europe (Eurabia?)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p9VC_P3Gf8 EU Takeover & the Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kr0Foq3CQE MEP Exposes The EU Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlrESONoYR4 The Lisbon Treaty is a Fascist Conspiracy]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzf7GUmbsdM Will the Lisbon Treaty achieve its goals?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Lisbon+Treaty&search_type=&aq=f Jim Corr on The Lisbon Treaty & The New World Order.]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC4Mn9Grs3w Frost over the World - Ireland's Lisbon treaty vote-2 Oct 09]
*[http://videolectures.net/iswc06_fountain_pc/ The Semantic Web and Networked Governance: Promise and Challenges]
*[http://www.vimeo.com/4397158 Program on Networked Governance CCCSN Seminar 2009-04-13: Jennifer Chayes]

Latest revision as of 16:08, 17 October 2009

Team Composition

Introduction

The Flag of the European Union
European Union 2009
Candidate countries
Likely Future Enlargements

The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>

However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions

  1. What is the definition of Europe?
  2. What countries are part of the European Union?
  3. What is the history of the European Union?
  4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
  5. What is the euro zone?

Politics

  1. How is the European Union Governed?
  2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
  3. How is the European parliament elected?
  4. How is the European parliament structured?
  5. How do the countries work together?
  6. How does the EU take decisions?
  7. How does the EU tick?
  8. How is the EU budget managed?
  9. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
  10. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
  11. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?

Policy

  1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?
  2. What are the Energy policies of the EU?
  3. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
  4. What are the Environment policies of the EU?
  5. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
  6. What are the foreign policies of the EU?
  7. What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?

Environment

  1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
  2. EU's response to climate change?
  3. What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?

Economics

  1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
  2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
  3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
  4. What are trade statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society

  1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
  2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
  3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?

Terrorism

  1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
  2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
  3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics

  1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
  2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
  3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
  4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?

Geopolitics

  1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
  2. Enlargement of EU?
  3. The future of European Union: Managing Globalization
  4. The future of European Union: Future Trends
  5. Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?
  6. EU and Asia?
  7. EU and India?
  8. EU and China?
  9. EU and Japan?
  10. EU and South Korea?
  11. EU and US?
  12. EU and Canada?
  13. EU and Africa?
  14. EU and Latin America?
  15. EU and Russia?
  16. EU and Middle East?
  17. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?

Numbers that Matter

As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

System Diagram

Systems Diagram

Inference matrix

The Blame Game New Beginning The Gilded Cage
Governance National Network Supranational union
Economy Recession Fast Growth Slow Growth
Identity Inward Outward -
Immigration Closed Border Open Border As is
Boundary Break Up Expansion Slow Decline
Financial System Socialism Mix Capitalism
Commerce/Trade Restricted Free Free
Resources/Energy Energy Scarcity in Europe Alternative sources of energy Energy Scarcity in Europe
Political Alignment Reactive Liberal / Progressive Liberal / Progressive
Population Change Aging Europe Increasing Mobility/Immigration Aging Europe

Scenario Tree

Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe

Scenarios

These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.


The Blame Game
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.


The Gilded Cage
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


New Beginning
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.

References

Scenario Reports

Economic Reports & Statistics

Presentations

Research Papers and Books

  • Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
  • Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
  • Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
  • Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
  • Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
  • Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
  • Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London

News & Other Sources

Videos

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