Difference between revisions of "Future of the European Union in 2030"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
 
(299 intermediate revisions by 5 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team Composition </h2>
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team Composition</h2>
* [[Arthur Danzi]]
* [[Arthur Danzi]]
* [[User:GudmunudurKr|Gudmundur Kristjansson]] <br/>
* [[User:GudmunudurKr|Gudmundur Kristjansson]] <br/>
Line 5: Line 5:
* [[User:Sameeragarwal|Sameer Agarwal]] <br/>  
* [[User:Sameeragarwal|Sameer Agarwal]] <br/>  
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
<br />
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Introduction </h2>


<br /><br />
==Introduction==
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Research Questions </h2>
[[Image:EUFlag.jpg|thumb|The Flag of the European Union|220px]] [[Image:EUMap.png|thumb|European Union 2009|220px]] [[Image:EUCandidatecCountries.png|thumb|Candidate countries|220px]] [[Image:LikelyFutureEnlargements.png|thumb|Likely Future Enlargements|220px]]
The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>


=== EU & Europe Definitions - Mauricio ===
However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.
 
==Research Questions==
 
<b>EU & Europe Definitions</b>
# [[What is the definition of Europe?]]
# [[What is the definition of Europe?]]
# [[What countries are part of the European Union?]]
# [[What countries are part of the European Union?]]
Line 17: Line 20:
# [[What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?]]
# [[What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?]]
# [[What is the euro zone?]]
# [[What is the euro zone?]]
 
<b>Politics</b>
=== Politics - GK ===
# [[How is the European Union Governed]]?
# [[How is the European Union Governed]]
# [[What are the main bodies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the main bodies of the EU?]]
# [[How is the European parliament elected?]]
# [[How is the European parliament elected?]]
Line 27: Line 29:
# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# Are there any planned budget policy changes?
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
<b>Policy</b>
 
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?]]
=== Policy - GK ===
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK]]
# [[What are the Regional policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M]]
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU?]]
# What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
# What are the Regional policies of the EU?
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# What are the foreign policies of the EU?
# [[What are the foreign policies of the EU?]]
 
# [[What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?]]
=== Environment - Sri Hari ===
<b>Environment </b>
# What is the key driver for environmental policy changes for EU the past 5 years?
# [[What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?]]
# Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?
# [[EU's response to climate change?]]
 
# [[What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?]]<br>
=== Economics - Sameer ===
<b>Economics</b>
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[How is monetary policy governed within the EU?]]
# [[How is monetary policy governed within the EU?]]
# [[What can cause the instability of the Euro?]]
# [[What can cause the instability of the Euro?]]
# Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
# [[What are trade statistics for the EU?]]
# How will be the energetic matrix in 2030?
# [[What is the energy profile of the EU?]]
 
<b>Society</b>
=== Society - Arthur ===
# [[Does European Union really bond its members together?]]
# [[Does European Union really bond its members together?]]
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about the creation of the EU?]]  
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[Will the large immigration numbers affect EU policy towards expansion?]]
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?]]
<b>Terrorism </b>
# [[How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?]]
 
=== Terrorism - Mauricio ===
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU? ]]
# [[How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU? ]]
# [[European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?]]
# [[European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?]]
 
<b>Demographics</b>
=== Demographics - Sameer ===
# [[What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?]]
# [[What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?]]
# [[What are the main religions practiced in the EU?]]
# [[What are the main religions practiced in the EU?]]
Line 71: Line 64:
# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?]]
<b>Geopolitics</b>
# What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?
# [[Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members]]?
 
# [[Enlargement of EU?]]
=== Geopolitics - Sri Hari ===
# [[The future of European Union: Managing Globalization]]
# Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
# [[The future of European Union: Future Trends]]
Back on June 30, 2009, the UK House of Commons Defence Committee issued a report entitled “Russia: A new confrontation.” What a title to make friends and influence people? Looking at EU-Russia relations, the report points out that Russia has a preference for dealing with EU member states bilaterally rather than multilaterally. The report quotes Russia’s 2008 foreign policy which says that “Russia will seek due respect for its interests including in the sphere of bilateral relations with individual EU member countries.” Where is the problem? The report goes on to say that a bilateral approach enables Russia to secure itself the best deals and play one country off against another and this approach is adopted in the dealings of Russia with the EU. Should Russia be blamed for that? All European nations have done this when the opportunity arose. It should be recognised that there are profound differences between member states on the EU’s relationship with Russia. The reality is that some EU countries (especially the larger ones) prefer to address some of the main issues on a bilateral basis, in particular in the energy area. Some member states prefer to deal directly with Moscow on economic and energy matters and leave the most difficult issues –such as democracy and human rights, trade barriers and reciprocal access to investments in some sensitive sectors– to the EU.
# [[Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?]]
In any case, Russia isn’t the only country that takes advantage of the European Union’s divisions. The United States regularly takes advantage of its relationship with the United Kingdom, Holland and Poland. The United States continues to use bilateral relations even with non-preferred partners when it suits its purposes. The open skies agreement for example with Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland and Germany, Luxembourg and Sweden did allow US airlines to improve their position in the European market. The unwillingness of the European member states to allow the Union to negotiate for them did provide an opportunity for the US and given the upper hand the US has used the bilateral negotiations strategically and skilfully. In areas of crucial importance to the US, the EU is not a unified actor. The US continues therefore to rely primarily on bilateral relations with national capitals. Or consider the case of Japan. In the 80s Japan sought to have an increased role and a stronger voice in international affairs. But the Commission’s role and powers were a source of some confusion or even frustration for Japanese officials as it claimed to speak for Europe, except on matters which they were no agreement between the member states and was therefore constrained in it ability to conclude any agreement it would have wished. Remember at that time the Commission President Jacques Delors was particularly vocal about the need to prevent Japanese domination of certain industry sectors. Or consider the case of China and the frustration that develops about the EU as a foreign policy actor when the EU cannot speak with one voice. It has been difficult for the EU to reach a single common policy towards China. Each member state has its own history –from extremely rich to almost inexistent– with Asia and especially China and some have competing economic interests. Values and their understanding and interpretation can be a factor of divergence; on human rights there are different sensitivities amongst European countries. Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands put the issue at the top of the agenda since their public opinions and parliaments pay great attention to the problem. At the other end of the spectrum, the Latin countries seem relatively less concerned. Germany, the UK and France fall in the middle. Varying European economic interests are also a source of divergence within the EU over China. The 27 member states have different interests. Neither do member states agree on the interpretation and consequences of China’s strategic rise.
# [[EU and Asia?]]
So Russia is not the only country that takes advantage of the European Union’s divisions. In fact every country probably spends a great deal of time thinking about how it can use tactics against the EU. How can the EU solve the problems of the world if it cannot solve its own problem of disunity. By its incoherent action the EU remains an under-achiever in its relations with Russia and that’s not Russia’s fault. There is no Russian “divide and conquer” strategy.
# [[EU and India?]]
Russia does not play the “divide and conquer“ game attributed to its EU policy. On the contrary, Russia wants the EU to conduct a coherent common policy on all matters, as was pointed out in Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept, approved by President Dmitry Medvedev “The Russian Federation is interested in the strengthening of the European Union, in the enhancement of its ability to present agreed positions in the areas of trade and economy, humanitarian issues, foreign policy and security.” Russia’s pragmatic protection of its national interest is defined in clear, non-ideological terms in common-sense language. What is clear is that there is an absence of unity on the part of the EU.
# [[EU and China?]]
The European Union, which is now at a highly critical moment in its history, must articulate more options with respect to Russia than seeing it simply as a threat that uses so-called geopolitical tactics. By interacting, both sides can have an extremely positive influence on each other but the European Union needs to put first its house in order. Let us remember that Europe needs Russia, while the EU is the partner that Russia needs to develop an economic base which is not almost wholly dependent on the sale of crude oil, gas and certain other mineral and metal products.
# [[EU and Japan?]]
Christian D. de Fouloy is President of the Association of Accredited Lobbyists to the European Parliament and a political scientist. He’s a frequent writer and public speaker on international issues.
# [[EU and South Korea?]]
Source:http://www.neurope.eu/articles/95524.php
# [[EU and US?]]
# What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
# [[EU and Canada?]]
# Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?  
# [[EU and Africa?]]
# Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?  
# [[EU and Latin America?]]
# In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?  
# [[EU and Russia?]]
# If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
# [[EU and Middle East?]]
# How will EU and China relationship develop?
# [[What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?]]
# How will EU and India relationship develop?
# How will EU and US relationship develop?
# How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
# What role does Africa play for Europe?
# What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
# Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
# How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?
 
=== Infrastructure - Arthur ===
# Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?


<br/>
==Numbers that Matter==
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Systems Diagram </h2>
As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.
<br /><br />
*[http://www.slideshare.net/persight/numbers-that-matter-muslim-demographics-the-truth Muslim Demographics - The Truth]


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Driving Forces </h2>
==Driving Forces==
<b>Political Driving Forces</b>
*[[Political Stability in Europe]]
*[[Institutional & Bureaucratic Dynamics]]
*[[To be a world power house]]
*[[Turkey Joining the EU]]
*[[Movement Towards World Unification]]
*[[Islamic Fundamentalism]]
*[[Terrorism]]
<b>Technological Driving Forces</b>
*[[Alternative sources of energy]]
<b>Environmental Driving Forces</b>
*[[Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices]]
*[[Pressure from developing countries]]
*[[Effects of climate change]]
<b>Economic Driving Forces</b>
*[[EU as a Counterweight to America]]
*[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
*[[The increasing globalization of markets]]
<b>Societal Driving Forces</b>
*[[Increasing Mobility]]
*[[Aging Europe]]
*[[Unemployment]]
*[[Racism]]


=== Political Driving Forces ===
==System Diagram==
# [[World Unification]]
[[Image:EU_Systems_Diagram.jpg|Systems Diagram|800px]]
# [[Threat of war]]
# [[The Rise of BRIC Economies]]


=== Technological Driving Forces ===
== Inference matrix ==
# [[Public attitude to science and technology]]
{| class="wikitable"
# [[Mobility]]
|-
# [[Nanotechnology]]
!
 
! [[The Blame Game]]
=== Environmental Driving Forces ===
! [[New Beginning]]
# [[Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU]]
! [[The Gilded Cage]]
# [[Scarcity of Water in the EU]]
|-
# [[Increasing need to clean energy]]
|<i>Governance</i>
|National
|[[Network]]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supranational_union Supranational union]
|-
|<i>Economy</i>
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession Recession]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Fast Growth]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Slow Growth]
|-
|<i>Identity</i>
|[[Inward]]
|[[Outward]]
| -
|-
|<i>Immigration</i>
|[[Closed Border]]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_borders Open Border]
|[[As is]]
|-
|<i>Boundary</i>
|Break Up
|Expansion
|[http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp Slow Decline]
|-
|<i>Financial</i>
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism System Socialism]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_economy Mix]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism Capitalism]
|-
|<i>Commerce/Trade</i>
|Restricted
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|-
|<i>Resources/Energy</i>
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|[[Alternative sources of energy]]
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|-
|<i>Political Alignment</i>
|Reactive
|Liberal / Progressive
|Liberal / Progressive
|-
|<i>Population Change</i>
|[[Aging Europe]]
|[[Increasing Mobility]]/Immigration
|[[Aging Europe]]
|-
|}


=== Economic Driving Forces ===
==Scenario Tree==
# [[EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.]]
[[Image:FishEUScenarios.png|800px|Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe]]
# [[Threat of total financial meltdown]]
# [[European integration]]
# [[European dependence on Russian Gas]]


=== Societal Driving Forces ===
==Scenarios==
# [[EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications]]
These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.
# [[Increasing Mobility]]
# [[Aging population]]
# [[Changes in Religion buildup of Europe]]
# [[Aging Europe]]
<br />


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Scenarios</h2>
<!-- # [[Engraving common ones and zeros]] -->


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">References</h2>
<b>[[The Blame Game]]</b><br>
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.


=== Scenario Reports ===
* [http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_04_28_papers/scenarios.pdf NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary]
* [ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/ntw_scenarios_report_en.pdf New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)]
* [http://www.mcrit.com/espon_scenarios/files/documents/e2020fd.pdf European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)]
* [http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=326381&lan=EN Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States]
* [http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/pubdocs/2008/40/en/1/ef0840en.pdf Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)]


=== Economic Reports ===
<b>[[The Gilded Cage]]</b><br>
* [http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


=== Presentations ===
* [http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]


=== News & Other Sources ===
<b>[[New Beginning]]</b><br>
* [http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.
* [http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
<br>
* [http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
<br>
* [http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Interview Questions</h2>
==References==
# [[What are the main political issues currently facing the European Union]]
# [[What are the main political forces in the European Union]]
# [[What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU? ]]


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Meeting Agenda</h2>
<b>Scenario Reports</b>
September 9, 2009 - 17:00 to 18:30<br />
*[http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_04_28_papers/scenarios.pdf NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary]
September 14, 2009 - 14:00 to 15:00
*[ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/ntw_scenarios_report_en.pdf New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)]
*[http://www.mcrit.com/espon_scenarios/files/documents/e2020fd.pdf European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)]
*[http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=326381&lan=EN Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States]
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/pubdocs/2008/40/en/1/ef0840en.pdf Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)]
*[http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/publications/98/1378/file_2995/espon3.2_60p._final_16-7-2007-c.pdf Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe to 2030]
*[http://www.mcrit.com/scenarios/index.htm Could we imagine another future for Europe? (very good resource)]
<b>Economic Reports & Statistics</b>
*[http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]
*[http://www.thud.nl/wkmaps/ Europe Interactive Map - Can compare different EU region]
<b>Presentations</b>
*[http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]
<b>Research Papers and Books</b>
*Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
*Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
*Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
*Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
*Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
*Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
*Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
*Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
*Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
*Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
*Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
*Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
*Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London
<b>News & Other Sources</b>
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
*[http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
*[http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
*[http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]
*[http://endofmen.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/why-ireland-should-vote-no-to-the-lisbon-treaty/ Why Ireland should vote No to the Lisbon Treaty]
<b>Videos</b>
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU The European Union - the New Soviet Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I8M1T-GgRU&NR=1&feature=fvwp Barroso: European Union is 'empire']
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl_yr0lOSbU&NR=1 Should the UK leave the European Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L0ld_Rjh38&NR=1 Interview - Jose Manuel Barroso]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OvguckX9V0 Economic future of EU is Green" Philippe Lamberts from EGP on EU Elections]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CchEH-zTm8 Davos Open Forum 2006 - The Future of Europe in the World]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLaWTkEUOH4 EU European Union Strasbourg Parliament Poster Pentagrams]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B5xgtwu9yw The Rise of the European Superstate]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiFFAcfkeOQ An alternative view of the European Union]
*[http://www.radioradicale.it/scheda/277976 Which future for Europe? The Regression of the EU into an Anti-historic Europe of 27 Little Fatherlands - 3 Day Conference]
*[http://fora.tv/2008/06/01/Uncommon_Knowledge_Daniel_Pipes#Daniel_Pipes_-_The_Uncertain_Future_of_Muslims_in_Europe The Uncertain Future of Europe (Eurabia?)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p9VC_P3Gf8 EU Takeover & the Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kr0Foq3CQE MEP Exposes The EU Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlrESONoYR4 The Lisbon Treaty is a Fascist Conspiracy]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzf7GUmbsdM Will the Lisbon Treaty achieve its goals?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Lisbon+Treaty&search_type=&aq=f Jim Corr on The Lisbon Treaty & The New World Order.]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC4Mn9Grs3w Frost over the World - Ireland's Lisbon treaty vote-2 Oct 09]
*[http://videolectures.net/iswc06_fountain_pc/ The Semantic Web and Networked Governance: Promise and Challenges]
*[http://www.vimeo.com/4397158 Program on Networked Governance CCCSN Seminar 2009-04-13: Jennifer Chayes]

Latest revision as of 16:08, 17 October 2009

Team Composition

Introduction

The Flag of the European Union
European Union 2009
Candidate countries
Likely Future Enlargements

The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>

However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions

  1. What is the definition of Europe?
  2. What countries are part of the European Union?
  3. What is the history of the European Union?
  4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
  5. What is the euro zone?

Politics

  1. How is the European Union Governed?
  2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
  3. How is the European parliament elected?
  4. How is the European parliament structured?
  5. How do the countries work together?
  6. How does the EU take decisions?
  7. How does the EU tick?
  8. How is the EU budget managed?
  9. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
  10. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
  11. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?

Policy

  1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?
  2. What are the Energy policies of the EU?
  3. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
  4. What are the Environment policies of the EU?
  5. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
  6. What are the foreign policies of the EU?
  7. What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?

Environment

  1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
  2. EU's response to climate change?
  3. What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?

Economics

  1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
  2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
  3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
  4. What are trade statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society

  1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
  2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
  3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?

Terrorism

  1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
  2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
  3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics

  1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
  2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
  3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
  4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?

Geopolitics

  1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
  2. Enlargement of EU?
  3. The future of European Union: Managing Globalization
  4. The future of European Union: Future Trends
  5. Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?
  6. EU and Asia?
  7. EU and India?
  8. EU and China?
  9. EU and Japan?
  10. EU and South Korea?
  11. EU and US?
  12. EU and Canada?
  13. EU and Africa?
  14. EU and Latin America?
  15. EU and Russia?
  16. EU and Middle East?
  17. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?

Numbers that Matter

As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

System Diagram

Systems Diagram

Inference matrix

The Blame Game New Beginning The Gilded Cage
Governance National Network Supranational union
Economy Recession Fast Growth Slow Growth
Identity Inward Outward -
Immigration Closed Border Open Border As is
Boundary Break Up Expansion Slow Decline
Financial System Socialism Mix Capitalism
Commerce/Trade Restricted Free Free
Resources/Energy Energy Scarcity in Europe Alternative sources of energy Energy Scarcity in Europe
Political Alignment Reactive Liberal / Progressive Liberal / Progressive
Population Change Aging Europe Increasing Mobility/Immigration Aging Europe

Scenario Tree

Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe

Scenarios

These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.


The Blame Game
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.


The Gilded Cage
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


New Beginning
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.

References

Scenario Reports

Economic Reports & Statistics

Presentations

Research Papers and Books

  • Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
  • Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
  • Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
  • Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
  • Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
  • Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
  • Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London

News & Other Sources

Videos

Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_the_European_Union_in_2030&oldid=32628"