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Hello!<br>
==Group Members==
You've reached the page for the Future of China in 2030<br>
The content of this page has been prepared between September and October 2009 by:<br>
=Group Members=
[[User:Guy kedar|Guy Kedar]]<br>
Guy Keidar<br>
[[User:Gerrit ledderhof|Gerrit Ledderhof]]<br>
[[User:Gerrit ledderhof|Gerrit Ledderhof]]<br>
Chia Wei Lee<br>
[[User:clee|Chia-Wei Lee]]<br>
[[User:jlittle|Johanna Little]]<br>
[[User:jlittle|Johanna Little]]<br>
[[User:Geoff.spielman|Geoff Spielman]]<br>
[[User:Geoff.spielman|Geoff Spielman]]<br>
=Introduction=


You guys might want to look at articles published by Bobo Lo, he writes on Russia but also Russo-Chinese relations. Andrei.
=Introduction= 
[[Image:flag1.gif|thumb|Chinese Flag|300px]]
[[Image:Map_of_china.jpg|thumb|Map of China|300px]]
China is more than just the world's most populous country.  It is a vast land with a rich history and strong cultural identity.  China's strong economic growth in recent years has put it in a unique position on the world stage, and the future of China, while uncertain, will have major consequences not just for itself but for the rest of world.  Although much has been said over the last few years about this region, there are still many interesting and important aspects uncovered and unexplored.
<br>
<br>
This page is devoted to exploring potential futures for China in 2030.
<br>
<br>


=Research Questions=
=Scenarios=
==Government and Politics==
==Scenario Stories==
==Economics==
The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for China in 2030:<br>
==Society and Culture==
*;[[Future_of_China_in_2030:_An_Inconvenient_Truth|An Inconvenient Truth]]
==Environment==
:''Environmental disaster''
'''What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?'''<br><br>
*;[[Future_of_China_in_2030:_Panda_Power|Panda Power]]
:''Birth of a superpower''
*;[[Future_of_China_in_2030:_Land_of_a_Hundred_Kingdoms|Land of a Hundred Kingdoms]]
:''Dissolving of an empire''
*;[[Future_of_China_in_2030:_Ciao_Mao|Ciao Mao]]
:''A foray into democracy''
 
==Scenario Tree==
<gallery>
Image:Future_of_china_2030_scenario_tree.jpg|''Final tree''
Image:China 2030 scenario tree draft1.jpg|''1st draft''
</gallery>
 
==Systems Diagram==
<gallery>
Image:China 2030 systems diagram1.jpg|''Systems diagram picture 1''
Image:China 2030 systems diagram2.jpg|''Systems diagram picture 2''
</gallery>
==Timelines==
<gallery>
Image:Inconvenient_truth.jpg|''Timeline for Inconvenient Truth Scenario''
Image:Panda_Power.jpg|''Timeline for Panda Power Scenario''
Image:LandOfKings.jpg|''Timeline for Land of a Hundred Kings Scenario''
Image:Ciao_Mao.jpg|''Timeline for Ciao Mao Scenario''
</gallery>
 
 
=Driving Forces=
==New Forces==
The following forces were determined to be of interest based on our research:


The driving factors behind China’s environmental problems include an increase in the number of households, increased urbanization, explosive economic growth, and a failure to execute environmental policy.  The number of households in China has grown almost three times as fast as its population during 1985-2000.  The average household has decreased from 4.5 to 3.5 people and because smaller households consume more resources per person, China’s rapid increase in household number and reduction in household size have had significant environmental consequences.  China is also becoming more urban. From 1952 to 2003, the country's proportionate urban population tripled from 13% to 39%.  (Liu & Diamond, 2005)  <br>
====Political Driving Forces====
*[[Decreasing acceptance of central government in China]]
*[[Increased private sector in China]]


Another driving force behind China's current environmental situation is due to its economic growth.  China is a large consumer of fertilizer and pesticides.  The consumption of these industrial and agricultural products leads to air, water and land pollution and other forms of environmental damage.  With increasing affluence, China’s per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs increased four-, four- and eightfold, respectively, between 1978 and 2002. This means more agricultural wastes, animal droppings, fish droppings, fish food and fertilizer for aquaculture, tending to increase terrestrial and aquatic pollution.  Additionally, China’s transportation network and number of vehicles have grown explosively.  In 1994, after the number of motor vehicles had increased to six times the 1980 figure, China decided to make car production one of its four ‘pillar industries’ to stimulate economic growth, with the goal of increasing production (especially of cars) by another factor of four by 2010. This would make China the world’s third-largest vehicle manufacturer, after the United States and Japan — with obvious implications for highway expansion at the expense of arable land, greater dependence on imported oil, and the recently improved but still poor air quality in cities such as Beijing.  Further, much of China’s economy — such as coal-mining and cement, paper and chemical production — still rests on outdated, inefficient or polluting technology, and overall industrial energy efficiency is only half that of the developed world.  Coal is the  country’s primary energy source and the main cause of its air pollution and acid rain.  Although solar and wind power are potentially significant renewable energy sources, hydroelectricity will become more important over the next decade, particularly with the expected completion of the controversial 18.2-gigawatt Three Gorges Dam project in 2009.  (Liu & Diamond, 2005)  <br>
====Environmental Driving Forces====
*[[Increase in the number of households in China]]
*[[Increasing water scarcity in China]]
*[[Desertification of China]]


Finally, although China has made strides in writing environmental protection policy, the country still lags in execution of these policies.  China declared environmental protection a basic national principle in 1983, laid out a broad strategy to achieve sustainable development in 1994, and in 1996 developed its first five-year plan on environmental protection.  In 2003, the government proposed a new development concept emphasizing humanism and attempting to achieve sustainable development and harmony between man and nature, as well as coordinated socioeconomic progress among various regions and with foreign countries.  In reality, although there has been much effort to control environmental degradation, economic development often takes priority at the local level and is still the main criterion for judging government officials’ performance.  (Liu & Diamond, 2005)  In 2006, premier Wen Jiabao listed three changes that China needs: to move from a GDP-centered model of growth to one that balances economy and environment and seeks the development of environmental protection; to change from a view of environmental protection as an obstacle to economic growth to the development of economy and environment in tandem; and to institute a range of methods to help resolve environmental problems. (Jun, 2007) 
====Societal Driving Forces====
*[[Increase in travel infrastructure in China]]
*[[Strict internet censorship in China]]


====Economic Driving Forces====
*[[Rising costs of labour in China]]
*After effect of the 2008 economic crisis


'''What impact have these key drivers had on the environment?'''<br>
====Technological Driving Forces====
*[[Increase of information sharing through Web 2.0]]
*[[The "flattening" of the world]]


The impact that China’s environmental degradation has on its people can be broken up into three categories:  socioeconomic losses, health costs, and the effects of more frequent and damaging natural disasters.
==Existing Forces==
The following forces are already existing on the wiki and are explicitly related to China.
====Political Driving Forces====
*[[An Open China]]
*[[Easing restrictions in China]]
*[[Economic Growth in China]]
*[[Strike in China]]
*[[Host to the 2008 Olympic Games Beijing,china]]


'''Socioeconomic losses''':  The losses from pollution and ecological damage ranged from 7% to 20% of GDP every year in the past two decades. Besides heavy economic losses, pollution and resource competition have triggered numerous social clashes in China, including 18 conflicts over forest resource management in southwestern China.  Similarly, water shortages in the Yellow River have triggered ‘water wars’ between people on the river’s upper and lower reaches, between people on opposite sides of the river, and between backers of industrial, agricultural and ecological needs.
====Economic Driving Forces====
*[[Chinese Families' economic condition]]
*[[Economic Growth in China]]
*[[Huge difference between the western and the eastern part of China]]
*[[Energy crisis in Asia]]
*[[The Rise of BRIC Economies]]
*[[China's economic productivity growth]]
*[[China's accumulated capital as the driving force of the economic growth]]
*[[China becoming the largest economy]]
*[[Increasing income disparity in China]]


'''Health Costs''':  Environmental pollution imposes further costs through its impact on human health. From 1996 to 2001, China’s spending on public health increased by 80%, or more than 13% per year (from $35 billion in
====Societal Driving Forces====
1996 to $63 billion in 2001), in part to cope with environmental problems.  About 300,000 deaths per year are attributed to air pollution.  Average blood lead levels in Chinese city dwellers are nearly double those considered to be dangerously high and to endanger childrens’ mental development. The risk of respiratory disease increases with the outdoor concentration of total suspended particles.  Even short-term exposure to air pollution can result in low infant weight and increased morbidity and mortality.
*[[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]]
*[[Population of China]]


====Environmental Driving Forces====
*[[Increased environmental degradation in China]]


'''Natural Disasters''':  China is noted for the frequency, number, extent and impact of its natural disasters. Human actions have made some of these more frequent, especially dust storms, landslides, droughts and floods.
=Research Questions=
Overgrazing, erosion, grassland degradation, desertification and partly human-caused droughts have led to more frequent, and more severe, dust storms. From AD 300 to 1949, dust storms struck northwestern China on average once every 31 years; since 1990 there has been one almost every year. The huge dust storm of 5 May 1993 killed a hundred people. Recent increases in droughts are believed to be due to deforestation that has interrupted the water cycle, and perhaps also due to the decrease in surface water resulting from draining and overuse of lakes and wetlands. Droughts damage about 160,000 km2 of cropland each year, double the area damaged in the 1950s. Flooding has greatly increased because of deforestation; the 1996 and 1998 floods were the worst in recent memory. Alternating droughts and floods have become more frequent and are more damaging than either disaster alone, because droughts destroy vegetation, and then flooding of bare ground produces worse erosion.


 
*[[China by the Numbers]]
'''What are China's most significant environmental obstacles going forward?'''<br>
*[[media:Numbers_that_matter_china_2030.ppt|Numbers that Matter Presentation]]
<br>
To begin our research, we generated a list of specific questions we were interested in answering on our quest to learn more about China.  The questions were loosely grouped into four areas: government & politics, economics, society & culture, and environment.  Follow the links to learn the answers.
<br>
==Government and Politics==


China's largest obstacles to improve the environment lie in the failure to execute environmental policies, prioritizing economic growth over environmental protection, a lack of public awareness, and its continued economic growth.  China has developed numerous environmental laws and policies, but most of them are just on paper.  Environmental protection agencies lack sufficient authority, financial resources and manpower. When there are conflicts between environmental protection and economic development, the former often loses to the latter. Economic performance often overshadows environmental protection as a criterion for selection and promotion of government officials. Environmental awareness is also low among the general public, government officials and business people. Most people think that environmental protection harms economic growth and do not recognize that environmental problems have already caused huge economic losses, severe social conflicts, enormous health costs and increased "natural" disasters (such as dust storms, floods, droughts).  Furthermore, many technologies in China are outdated, inefficient and highly polluting. Finally, China's continued economic growth and changing lifestyles will continue to be a large obstacle in improving the environment.  Although per capita consumption in China is still much less than that in developed countries, increases in consumption are accelerating. Diet is shifting more toward meat and away from grain. More cars are pouring into newly constructed and rapidly expanding highways. Divorce has become increasingly common, resulting in more and smaller households and thus lower efficiency of resource use. In 2004 alone, over 1.6 million couples split up. (PBS, 2006)
*[[What is the reality of the current political system (is it really communist)?]]
*[[What is current foreign policy?]]
*[[What is China’s sphere of influence?]]
*[[Who does China currently consider as allies/enemies?]]
*[[Could China survive democracy?]]
*[[Will china join ASEAN?]]
*[[What is the role of women in Chinese government?]]
*[[How does China view its role within the world? Superpower?]]


'''How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future?'''<br>
==Economics==
*[[What is the industrial structure of China by GDP?]]
*[[What is the composition of labor force by occupation in China?]]
*[[What are the positive performances of China in economic fields in recent years?]]
*[[What are the main problems in China's economy?]]
*[[What kind of economic development challenges does the Chinese government face?]]
*[[What industries will be the biggest source for economic growth going forward?]]
*[[Will China become a post-industrialized society in the near future and if so how will it make this transition?]]:
*[[What are the implications if China’s growth slows (i.e., potential starvation etc.)?]]
*[[Will China continue to be dependent on other countries for economic growth or will domestic demand increase in the near future?]]


==Society and Culture==
*[[What is China's size?]]
*[[What is China's climate?]]
*[[What can be learned on China through its national symbols?]]
*[[Are there any current issues that are causing social unrest?]]
*[[How will the income disparity in China affect its future?]]
*[[Will the growing difference  in ratio of men to women have a negative impact on China’s future?]]
*[[What aspects of China’s culture will be the strongest driving forces in the country’s future?]]
*[[How developed is the Chinese Medical system?]]
*[[Chinese Dynasties – Qin to Qing]]
*[[Did Civil/independence wars play a role in Chinese history?]]
*[[What was the origin of the rise of the the communist party?]]
*[[How did Taiwan form?]]
*[[Contemporary politics and events]]
*[[How open is China for tourism?]]
*[[What is the ages breakdown of th epoulation?]]
*[[How big is the difference in numbers between Men and Women?]]
*[[History - a brief]]


'''What will China's environmental policy be going forward?'''<br><br>
==Environment==


Recognizing the environmental challenges the country faces, the Chinese government is hoping to build an environmentally-friendly society, and has set very ambitious environmental goals. By 2010, China aims to basically control the trend of environmental deterioration, improve environmental quality in some key regions and key cities, reduce the total emission of major pollutants by 10 percent, lower energy consumption per unit GDP output by 20 percent from the 2005 level, maintain cropland and increase forest cover from 18 percent to 20 percent. By 2020, China plans to significantly improve environmental quality and ecological conditions. Still, China's economic goal is to double its GDP by 2020, and we've seen from the past two decades that economic goals tend to be well surpassed while environmental goals are left largely unattended to. (PBS, 2006)<br><br>
The below links are the short answers for each question.  For more information, please select the following link: [[Environmental Research Questions - China in 2030]]
China is increasingly assuming responsibilities on the world stage by participating in environmental treaties. Many environmental laws, policies and regulations are being developed or improved. The Chinese public’s environmental awareness is rising. China has been pushing hard for cleaner production and sustainable development. Some environmental and product standards have reached developed-world levels.  Energy intensity is declining. Technologies for production and for treating environmental waste are improving.  To reduce air pollution in Beijing, the city government ordered that vehicles be converted to allow the use of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. China has phased out leaded petrol in little more than a year, something that took Europe and America many years to achieve. New cars must meet the exacting emissions standards prevailing in Europe. Since 1990, China has combated desertification on 24,000 km2 of land by reforestation and fixation of sand dunes. The Grain-to-Green program, begun in 2000, gives grain and cash subsidies to farmers who convert cropland to forest or grassland, and is reducing the use of environmentally sensitive steep hillsides for  agriculture. By the end of 2003, 79,000 km2 of cropland had been returned to forest or grassland. By the end of this program in 2010, approximately 130,000 km2 of cropland are expected to be converted, making it one of the largest conservation programs in the world. China is also designing and adopting a green accounting system that includes environmental costs in the calculation of gross domestic product
(or Green GDP).


=Driving Forces=
*[[What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?]]
=Scenarios=
*[[What impact have these key drivers had on the environment?]]
*[[What impact have these poor environmental conditions had on China?]]
*[[What are China's most significant environmental obstacles going forward?]]
*[[How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future (and the world's future)?]]
*[[What will China's environmental policy be going forward?]]


=References=
=References=
==Websites==
#Political History: http://acc6.its.brooklyn.cuny.edu/~phalsall/texts/chinhist.html
#General History: http://www-chaos.umd.edu/history/toc.html
==Videos==
#[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/youngchina/ Frontline. 2006. Young and Restless in China.]
#[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/interactives/chinafamilies/ Washington Post. 2006. Redefining China's Family.]
#[http://video.aol.co.uk/video-detail/jonathan-anderson-ubs-on-the-future-of-china-economic-policy/3897490739 Financial Times. 2009. NATHAN ANDERSON, UBS, on the future of China economic policy Video.]
==News and Journal Articles==
==News and Journal Articles==
#Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment<br>
#Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment<br>
#PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
#PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
#Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf
#Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf
# People's Daily Online. 11 September 2009. Will China's economic growth change the world economic pattern? Available: http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90780/91344/6755577.html
# Hilton Yip, The China Post. 26 September 2009. A whole new world ahead. Available:  http://www.chinapost.com.tw/art/books/2009/09/26/226517/A-whole.htm


==Previous Scenarios==
==Previous Scenarios==
#[[Future of China in 2020]]
#[[The Future of the Internet in China 2015]]
#http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
#http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
#http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_China_in_2020<br>
#http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
#http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
#http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf
#http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf


=Recommended Reading=
=Recommended Reading=
#Barton, D. 2004. Facing China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
Can't get enough of China?  Here is a list of interested things to read, watch, or see.  Be careful, you might learn something.<br>
#Bekier, Matthias M., Richard Huang, and Gregory P. Wilson. 2005. How to fix China’s banking system. The McKinsey Quarterly 2005. Number 1.
#Shen, Sandy. (2008). Innovation Is Reshaping China's Economy. Gartner. G00157000.
#Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian Development Bank. November.
#[http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2008/09/22/will-china-starve-the-world.aspx Motley Fool. 2008. Will China Starve the World?]
#Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
#[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/18/world/asia/18iht-spy.3.10157725.html The New York Times. 2008. Missile-ready China warns U.S. against plan to destroy spy satellite]
#[http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/01/inside-the-chin/ Wired. 2008. How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 1)]
#[http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19628 Pei, Minxin. (2007). Corruption Threatens China’s Future. Carnegie: Endowment for International Peace. Policy Brief 55]
#[http://www.adb.org/documents/edrc/policy_briefs/pb042.pdf Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian Development Bank. November.]
#[http://www.jwsr.ucr.edu/archive/vol13/Entire-vol13n2.pdf#page=5 Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.]
#[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/CHINAEXTN/Resources/318949-1242182077395/peic_full_report.pdf Zhang, Zeng, Mako & Seward.  2009.  Promoting Enterprise-Led Innovation in China. The World Bank.]
#[http://opinion.globaltimes.cn/commentary/2009-08/461129.html Miaojie, Yu. 2009. Global Times. Domestic markets can't sustain China's growth]
#[http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13326082 The Economist. 2009. China and the West: A time for muscle-flexing]
#[http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/05/china/journey/hessler-text National Geographic. 2008. China's Journey]
#Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing Technological Innovation. To be presented at “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
#Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing Technological Innovation. To be presented at “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
#Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
#Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
#Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005. Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints. RAND Corporation.
#Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005. Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints. RAND Corporation.
#Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
#Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
#Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.
#[http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/071126_cq_freeman_currency.pdf Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.]
#Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
#Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
#UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment Research. 2005. How to Think About China. Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong. 6 January.
#UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment Research. 2005. How to Think About China. Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong. 6 January.
#Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004. New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
#Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004. New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
#Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
#Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
#[http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0310-05.htm Clifford Coonan.10 Mar.2006. "China’s Boom is Killing Sea That Gives It Life, Warn Scientists." Independent News and Media Limited.]
#[http://www.wsichina.org/cs7_2.pdf Wenping, He. 2007. The Balancing Act of China's Africa Policy.]

Latest revision as of 15:36, 29 October 2009

Group Members

The content of this page has been prepared between September and October 2009 by:
Guy Kedar
Gerrit Ledderhof
Chia-Wei Lee
Johanna Little
Geoff Spielman

Introduction

Chinese Flag
Map of China

China is more than just the world's most populous country. It is a vast land with a rich history and strong cultural identity. China's strong economic growth in recent years has put it in a unique position on the world stage, and the future of China, while uncertain, will have major consequences not just for itself but for the rest of world. Although much has been said over the last few years about this region, there are still many interesting and important aspects uncovered and unexplored.

This page is devoted to exploring potential futures for China in 2030.

Scenarios

Scenario Stories

The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for China in 2030:

Environmental disaster
Birth of a superpower
Dissolving of an empire
A foray into democracy

Scenario Tree

  • Final tree

  • 1st draft

Systems Diagram

  • Systems diagram picture 1

  • Systems diagram picture 2

Timelines

  • Timeline for Inconvenient Truth Scenario

  • Timeline for Panda Power Scenario

  • Timeline for Land of a Hundred Kings Scenario

  • Timeline for Ciao Mao Scenario


Driving Forces

New Forces

The following forces were determined to be of interest based on our research:

Political Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Existing Forces

The following forces are already existing on the wiki and are explicitly related to China.

Political Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Research Questions


To begin our research, we generated a list of specific questions we were interested in answering on our quest to learn more about China. The questions were loosely grouped into four areas: government & politics, economics, society & culture, and environment. Follow the links to learn the answers.

Government and Politics

Economics

Society and Culture

Environment

The below links are the short answers for each question. For more information, please select the following link: Environmental Research Questions - China in 2030

References

Websites

  1. Political History: http://acc6.its.brooklyn.cuny.edu/~phalsall/texts/chinhist.html
  2. General History: http://www-chaos.umd.edu/history/toc.html

Videos

  1. Frontline. 2006. Young and Restless in China.
  2. Washington Post. 2006. Redefining China's Family.
  3. Financial Times. 2009. NATHAN ANDERSON, UBS, on the future of China economic policy Video.

News and Journal Articles

  1. Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment
  2. PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
  3. Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf
  4. People's Daily Online. 11 September 2009. Will China's economic growth change the world economic pattern? Available: http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90780/91344/6755577.html
  5. Hilton Yip, The China Post. 26 September 2009. A whole new world ahead. Available: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/art/books/2009/09/26/226517/A-whole.htm

Previous Scenarios

  1. Future of China in 2020
  2. The Future of the Internet in China 2015
  3. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
  4. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
  5. http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf

Recommended Reading

Can't get enough of China? Here is a list of interested things to read, watch, or see. Be careful, you might learn something.

  1. Shen, Sandy. (2008). Innovation Is Reshaping China's Economy. Gartner. G00157000.
  2. Motley Fool. 2008. Will China Starve the World?
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