Difference between revisions of "The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020"
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[[Digital Literacy]] <br> | [[Digital Literacy]] <br> | ||
[[Emerging economies]] <br> | [[Emerging economies]] <br> | ||
[[Opportunity costs]] <br> | |||
[[Inflation and cost of living]] <br> | |||
<br> | <br> | ||
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[[Aging population]] <br> | [[Aging population]] <br> | ||
[[increase of population-demographics]] <br> | [[increase of population-demographics]] <br> | ||
[[Globalization and its requirement to travel]] <br> | |||
[[Increase of contacts - and therefore friendship - farther away from home]] <br> | |||
[[Time and privacy factors]] <br> | |||
<br> | <br> | ||
'''Environmental:''' <br><br> | '''Environmental:''' <br><br> | ||
[[Kyoto treaty]] <br> | |||
<br> | |||
'''Political:''' <br><br> | |||
[[disincentivation of car utilization in major cities]] <br> | |||
[[Investment in infrastructure]] <br> | |||
[[Investment in virtualization]] <br> | |||
[[What brings in the money for the sate?]] <br> | |||
[[Kyoto treaty]] <br> | |||
== Links == | == Links == | ||
Revision as of 15:11, 29 September 2005
Introduction
This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 6 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:
The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020
Research Questions
- Which technologies will affect individual mobility in the next 10 years and what will be the impact of these technologies on mobility?
- How and where will people spend their leisure time in 2015?
- What are the major destinations for vacation in 2015?
- Will people still spend the majority of their working hours in the office?
- How will congestion develop in the next 15 years?
- What are current plans of the government regarding major infrastructure projects?
- What will be the impact of oil demand and oil prices on individual mobility?
- How will an expanded EU with fading borders impact mobility?- Radjes
- If one has to choose between food and shelter versus mobility. What will it be?-Radjes
- What efforts are taken on a political level to influence mobility?-Radjes
- What is the impact of a declining world trade on mobility?-Radjes
- How will architecture change the landscape of office, home and shopping area? And how will that impact mobility?
- Will individual economical growth create an environment that stimulates indovidual or group mobility?
- What would be the impact of the threat of terrorism on infrastructure and control and how would it affect mobility?
- How would virtualization affect mobility?
- Will the population of Europe grow, stabilize or decline? In which parameter? In wich geographies?
- Where would be the most congested areas?
- Will urbanization be ruled by the same principles of today?
- Why would people still find the need to move?
- What drives governors, mayors and politicians to chose for a certain mobility route versus another? Is it increase in population, increase of businesses in their region or increase of natural parks etc.?
- What influence on mobility will have the strong consolidation in the European industry?
- How will the aging of the European population influence the mobility?
- What will be the influence of more or less free time have on mobility?
- How will specific taxes influence the mobility of individuals?
Driving Forces
Economic:
Oil Price
Digital Literacy
Emerging economies
Opportunity costs
Inflation and cost of living
Technological:
Development of 3G techonology
Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop
Mobility
The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates
high efficent fuels and motors
Societal:
Change of personal traits
Increasing Mobility
Increasing social isolation
Virtual Integration
Aging population
increase of population-demographics
Globalization and its requirement to travel
Increase of contacts - and therefore friendship - farther away from home
Time and privacy factors
Environmental:
Kyoto treaty
Political:
disincentivation of car utilization in major cities
Investment in infrastructure
Investment in virtualization
What brings in the money for the sate?
Kyoto treaty
Links
Note to group: please add your links to secondary research here:
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat: Nota Mobiliteit
National Intelligence Council:
International Futures Model, Global Trends 2020 and Global Trends 2015
For a better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem, see Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
RIVM: Effects of a compact urbanisation scenario on passenger mobility
[1]
Speech van de minister van Verkeer en Waterstaat, mevrouw T. Netelenbos, voor de opening van de manifestatie Mobiliteit als Uitdaging in Rotterdam op woensdag 9 juni 1999.
[2]
Een scenario studie: Omgevingsscenario's en lange termijn verkenning 1995-2020 die momenteel voor Nederland door het CPB wordt gedaan-Radjes:[3]
Other
Gartner:
"By 2008, 41 million corporate employees globally will spend at least one day a week teleworking, and 100 million will work from home at least one day a month"; see "Teleworking: The Quiet Revolution" on gartner.com
"By 2015, wirelessly networked sensors in everything we own will form a new Web."; see "Extracting Value From the Massively Connected World
of 2015" on gartner.com