User:Guy kedar

Scenario thinking

Learning map

Guy Keidar MBA10

This Learning Map summarizes my main take aways from the Scenario Thinking course. The map does not describe the entire work process conducted in the framework of the course. Rather it serves as description for my perceived learning process, summarizing my focal points, insights and the learning procedure that I have gone through.

The first part concentrates on the learning process, as was driven by readings and classes. The second part deals with the learning process resulted by the individual and group assignments. Arrows implemented in the first part refer to the correlated sections in the second.

Attached to each section are four colours. These represent stages of the learning process I believe such section involved.

Learning

Practice

Research

Group

As can be noticed, the third component of a learning process – "apply" is missing. Although it can be argued that we applied learnt knowledge during our work on constructing the assigned scenarios, as individuals and in groups, I would claim that as long as this application is done within the premises of the course, it is still to be considered as "practice".

Two additional colours represent the group process and the intensity of the research. I believe both serve as components in the study process of Scenario Thinking as they demand unique, or at least inexperienced to date, techniques.

Course Outline – Spotting a white rabbit • Discovery of a new discipline of strategic thinking • Curiosity to learn what appears to be an alternative and non conventional thought

Pre Course readings and assignment • Introduction to the principles of scenarios • Illustration of the scenario process • Reading and evaluating other students scenarios is challenging as, with limited assessment tools (based on the pre reading), the process appears to be relied on intuition

First session – Into the rabbit's hole • The Scenarios world is unveiled • Inquisitive by the introduction of a new approach • Although expecting the opportunity to practice scenario development I am disappointed from the subject of China, chosen by the group, as I have already conducted a research on the country in term one's Economics course

Second session – Drink Me!

• Mind boggled by the amount of new information and the realization of the scope of background work necessary for laying the grounds for a scenario • New tools acquired, including the scenario tree and tools to define driving forces

Third session – Meeting Chester the cat • Learning to look for the value perspective rather than an apparent one • Although this wasn't my first encounter with "Systems", it appears I wasn’t ripe for it at the time. This time my eyes open and the bigger picture, interrelating different disciplines, becomes clear to me • I contemplate on my view of things and question whether until now I wasn’t looking at things on a too narrow scope– this needs to change • Guest lecture provides with firm's perspective and supports the Rabobank example – the picture of "Scenario thinking " becomes more vivid

Fourth session – The mad hatter's tea party

• Experiencing systems drawing is a 'trip' of its own • Brainstorming in a way I have never experienced before • A seemingly random set of forces and arrows shapes into a plausible cause and effect system and a bigger picture emerges • An increasing feeling pulls me in the way of Scenario Thinking as a way of life and as a possible future career

Fifth +sixth sessions – The trial • The deep myth rises – thinking both deeper and broader in order to achieve deep understanding and bigger picture • Memory of the future illustrates the power of implementation

Seventh session – Waking up, or perhaps not • Listening to scenarios of peers provides learning on new subjects as well as a benchmark to the quality and stage of our group's work • The road of progression in our group work becomes clear. However, constructing the scenarios is still ahead and promises challenges • I am convinced of the power of scenario thinking in the business world and in my life and am anxious to deepen my understanding in a pursuit of career in the field

Numbers that matter:

Group exercise • Learning to look critically at a given data • Practicing finding hidden meanings and re-evaluating the quality of given data

Driving forces:

Individual exercise • A practical tool in the Scenario thinking (and building) process is acquired and practiced • Learning to differentiate between enablers and disablers

China. 2030:

Conducting a research on China • Trying to learn on the history and characteristics of China as well as to identify possible future implications of such • First evidence of Systems as group members try to relate various disciplines into a bigger picture

Determining driving forces • Presentation of the various driving forces each group member came up with • Evaluation of the forces and a search for interrelations • Identification of dominant forces on which we will concentrate. Special attention is given to forces that can play part in multiple scenarios

Analyzing the system • A big and chaotic diagram needs to transform into plausible scenarios • It is the discomposure of a genetic code • My disappointment from the subject of the research (China) dissolves as I recognize the value of the process. It is a whole new way of looking at China

Creating a scenario tree • We now determine causes and effects and the possibilities for China's future while eliminating secondary possible scenarios

Constructing scenarios • It's time for some story telling • Attempting to create a plausible chain of cause and effect between designated driving forces • I fear that our scenarios may be too obvious ("boring")

Refining scenario tree questions and scenarios • Feedback sends us to re-consult and refine our stories • A meta approach helps clear things and view the possibilities from a wider angle • Additional research helps refine key points • Preparation for the group presentations involves rapping the scenario chains with "flesh and blood"

Writing scenarios - Back in wonderland • Scenario writing demands the creation of plausible and intriguing stories • As writing progresses we are sent for additional research, pointed more accurately at specific subjects