The future of the global economy in 2015

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Introduction


This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 3 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The future of the global economy in 2015

The members of Group 3 are:

  • Peter Groen
  • Wendi Mennen
  • Maarten Post
  • Harry Schoots
  • Eric Verbeek

Research Documentation

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/ which contains a link to an Economist article to get us started: Analysis: The Economist, Sep 06, 2005 The perfect storm.

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_Future_of_the_Global_Village_in_2020 which contains a scenario of last years students.

http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html is the homepage of the National Intelligence Councel. Mapping the Global future is a useful report.

http://www.millenniumassessment.org is the homepage of the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. Latest research of the MA states that environmental concerns increase opportunities and challenges for business that ultimately might influence the global economy.

http://t21.ca contains a selection of world global trends on different aspects based on many sources. http://t21.ca/economic/index.htm lists the economic key findings.

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) performed a scenario analysis on the economic future of Europe, downloadable from http://www.cpb.nl/eng/econ/lange_termijn/recente_studies.html
Try also this report on Globalisation and the Global Environment: four quantitative scenarios: http://www.cpb.nl/nl/general/org/homepages/aml/gitage_si.pdf

The OECD published a study on the future of the global economy: The Future of Global Economy: Towards a long boom? http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/0/35394025.pdf

Research Questions

Note to group: please add your research questions below.

ECONOMY

  • Which countries drive the asian economy?
  • Are the economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?
  • What are the trade balances of the major economies in asia, for example China and India?
  • Which countries drive the african econmy?
  • Are the economies increasing in terms of GDP, and how rapidly?
  • What are the trade balances of some of the important economies in africa?
  • Which countries drive the south and middle america econmy?
  • Are the economies in south and middle america increasing in terms of GDP, and how rapidly?
  • What are the trade balances of some of the important economies in south and middle america?
  • What is GDP in the USA , and what is the increase factor?
  • What is the trade balance in the USA, and how is this balanced?
  • Which countries drive the European economies (including Russia)?
  • What is the GDP of the European countries, and what is the increase factor?
  • What is the trade balance of these European countries?
  • What are the resource constraints of the future economy?
  • What are the resource constraints of China, India, US, Europe, South America, and Africa?
  • What is the strenght of the American Dollar compared to the Euro, Yen, Guan,...? Is it declining of increasing in the past 10 years?

Politics

  • What will be the role of the Central Banks (ECB, FED)to the economy?
  • What will the effect be of global terrorism on the economy?
  • How will the (in)stability of the Middle-Eastern states influence the global economy?

Society

  • What are the effects of the greying population in Europe to the economy?

Technology and business

  • What are the effects of off shoring production work?
  • What is the growth rate of E-commerce in the world?
  • How long does it take the OPEC countries to double their refinery capacity?
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