Difference between revisions of "The future of the Lowlands in 2025"

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[[Image:D3701NF1.gif]]<br><br>
== Introduction ==
== Introduction ==


This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 1 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:


'''The future of the Western-European society in 2025'''
'''The future of the Lowlands in 2025'''
 
Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.


Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. For example in The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.
These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…


These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking again as an example at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), this now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in Dutch and European history when looking back at history in 2025…
'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’'''
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’


'''Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for Western Europe?’'''
<br>
From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Western European societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Western Europe: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’


== Research questions ==
== Four Scenarios ==
<br>


1. Which are the critical parameters that determine and impact a country's social structure?
<table>
  <tr>
    <td>[["Communist Lowlands"]]</td>
    <td></td>
    <td>[["World Diplomats"]]</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td></td>
    <td>[[Image:Lowlands_2025_Scenarios.jpg]]</td>
    <td></td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
    <td>[["World Class Poverty"]]</td>
    <td></td>
    <td>[["Yankee Doodle Lowlands"]]</td>
  </tr>
</table>


2. If it is assumed at this stage that a country's social structure can be impacted by any major change in the external environment (PESTE): then what are the expectations/projections for Western European countries (focus on The Netherlands?) regarding changes in its external environments? More specifically: what are the projections for the following underlying parameters:
<br><br>


'''Political structure:'''
Scenario document: [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/6/65/Group_assignment_Future_of_the_Lowlands_EMBA05.pdf Four Scenarios]
emergence of new political parties with anti-X-segments (e.g. X = Christians, Gays, others?); terrorism (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?); European divide (& ideas on its anticipated impact: maybe political, social, economical?)


'''Economical structure:''' GDP development (including impact of China, expansion EU, others?); increasing pension & health payments; energy/oil crisis; changes in trade agreements;
<br><br>
 
== System Diagram ==
 
http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt
<br>


'''Social structure:'''
demographic changes (% of immigrants owing to higher birth rates, % of Muslims, aging of overall population); changes in migration;changes in lifestyle e.g. individualism vs collectionism;


'''Technology:'''; changes in interconnectivity and teleworking; sabotaging risks;
== Driving Forces ==


'''Environmental:''' climate changes
'''Political'''<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Labour_Market Global Labour Market]<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Global_Terrorism Global Terrorism]<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Islamic_Fundamentalism Islamic Fundamentalism]<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_concentration_of_non-western_immigrants_%28in_Lowlands%29 Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands]<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increase_of_international_conflicts_against_muslims Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries] <br> <br>


3. Which of the above drivers can we expect to have the biggest overall impact on the social structure of Western Europe in 2025? (Based on intensity of anticipated change and the importance of the driver)?
'''Societal'''<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Aging_population Aging Population]<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/My_job_is_not_the_only_thing_in_my_life_ANYMORE%21%21%21%21 Life in balance]<br>
[[Increasing influence of Millennials]]<br>


4. What is the possibility of a drastic changing political structure, and what will be the impact (e.g. Two party system, republic, end of democracy)
<br>
'''Technological''' <br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_in_investments_in_R%26D Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands]<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees]
<br><br>


5. How can the level of education impact the future including the competition of high level academic research with other countries like China, USA?
'''Economical'''
<br> [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_revenues_in_lowlands_from_national_gas_fields Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands] <br><br>


6. What will be the competitive advantage of the Lowlands/western Europe, or do we loose all competitive advantages?
== Research ==


7. How will peoples feeling of identity (nationality) impact the possible changes within society?
'''Research topics'''
<br>
[[Research topics]]
<br><br>


8. How will different ethnic groups (Original Dutch, Moroccans, Muslims, Turkish, Surinam, etc) interact (or not interact), and what will be the impact on violence and terrorism?
'''Research performed'''
<br>
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited number of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above).
<br>
The total research is presented in the following document:
<br>
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/5/53/Future_of_the_Lowlands_in_2025_-_Research_Driving_Forces.pdf Research Driving Forces]
<br>
<br>


'''Original research question'''
<br>
<br>
[[Original research question]]
<br><br>


== Articles, Concepts, Links ==
== Articles, Concepts, Links ==
[http://www.cpb.nl/eng/pub/bijzonder/55/bijz55_summary.pdf Four Futures for the Netherlands]
<br>
[http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/408129027.pdf Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland]
<br>


Note to group or other public contributors: please add your contributions below. Press the edit link on the right.<br>
[http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=2706&sp=2&dn=4196 De Toekomst als inspiratiebron]
<br>
 
[http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int European Statistics]
<br>
 
[http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/cijfers/statline/toegang/default.htm Statline]
<br>
 
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/3/35/Bijz55_summary.pdf Four futures of the Netherlands]
<br>
 
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/e/e2/LT-bevolking.pdf Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands]
<br>
<br>

Latest revision as of 19:57, 6 December 2021

D3701NF1.gif

Introduction

The future of the Lowlands in 2025

Everywhere around the Western world, the events of 9/11 have triggered the start of significant changes in societies. While the exact impact has been different for individual countries, an increased sense of physical and social insecurity has been shared among most of the Western world countries. In The Netherlands, this effect of increased insecurity was further pronounced by the liquidations of Pim Fortuyn (2003) and Theo van Gogh (2004): both politically motivated murdering acts, which had not been experienced in The Netherlands since the beheading of Van Oldenbarnevelt in medieval ages.

These changes have given rise to heated debates within the wider society about amongst others the critical importance of freedom of speech versus openness and respectful behaviour towards other cultures. Looking at the Dutch: once a proud and outward (sea-)faring nation, they have long been famous for their tolerance, multicultural interests and their openness to publicly discuss and accept what may appear morally challenging dilemmas in other countries (such as e.g. the use of drugs, euthanasia etc.), which now appears to be gradually but fundamentally changing over time. The recent Dutch ‘No’ against the newly proposed European Constitution may only signal a symbolical start of what could turn out to be a profound and apocalyptic change in the history of The Low Lands when looking back at history in 2025…

Strategic dilemma: ‘Where to for the Lowlands?’ From this introduction, the strategic dilemma faced by the Lowland societies can be framed as:‘Where to for Lowlands: a change from (focus on) integration to ultimately disintegration and segregation?’


Four Scenarios


"Communist Lowlands" "World Diplomats"
Lowlands 2025 Scenarios.jpg
"World Class Poverty" "Yankee Doodle Lowlands"



Scenario document: Four Scenarios



System Diagram

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/4/41/Systems_diagram_final_Lowlands_2025.ppt


Driving Forces

Political
Global Labour Market
Global Terrorism
Islamic Fundamentalism
Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants in the lowlands
Increase of international conflicts against Muslim countries

Societal
Aging Population
Life in balance
Increasing influence of Millennials


Technological
Decrease in R&D investments in the Netherlands
Decline in the numbers of high-tech skilled employees

Economical
Declining revenues from national gas fields in The Netherlands

Research

Research topics
Research topics

Research performed
An extensive research has been conducted to the forces which might impact the future of the Lowlands. Only a limited number of these forces have been used as driving forces in the scenarios (see above).
The total research is presented in the following document:
Research Driving Forces

Original research question
Original research question

Articles, Concepts, Links

Four Futures for the Netherlands

Lange Termijn bevolkingsscenario's voor Nederland

De Toekomst als inspiratiebron

European Statistics

Statline

Four futures of the Netherlands

Long-Term Population scenario's for the Netherlands

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