Scenario 3: Co-exist

Internet TV part, Fee from customer

Currently around 2006, traditional TV is still in its prosperity and some internet and telecom providers are looking at TV market holding the intention to take some market. Because the power structure of TV industry interweaves with many other issues, for example, politics, society, and TV always acts as the role of window to present other industries. A lot of national governments put strict regulation on establishing new TV channels, and censor the content on TV. Within the next 10 years, there will definitely still be nations existing in the world. From 2006 to 2016, the governments and ministerial parties in many countries will keep trying to control content of mass media and block certain channels that are against to them, which means that TV can’t be a totally free and fair competing market. What’s more, some nations, like USA, are working with new laws of network neutrality that internet TV can’t charge differently for their video and audio from customers. Faced with all these situations, even though internet content providers may be able to supply the access to some TV programs for internet end users, the government may not allow these internet content providers to establish similar TV channels that are on traditional TV, let alone large scale TV stations. The power fight will be particularly intense in the following 2 years, 2006-2008, which is the beginning of possible TV resolution.

The upper level above government regulation and power fight is the actual TV business. More customer expectation will become clear around 2008, like on demand program, interactive participation and etc. With the popularity of internet, people are actually more accustomed to the way of collecting information on line and entertaining on line. Meanwhile, the big boys in internet and telecom business are trying to build up its own TV program distribution, and nurture a market for internet TV, but lack of IP (Intellectual Property) and government control block their development. After 2008, the governments make more efforts to IP. Until 2012, most content on TV is with clear patent protection that internet TV can maintain legal content supply. With in the same period of time, technologies for TV are fast developed to both boom traditional TV and internet TV. On one hand, PVR (Personal Video Recorder) is technically mature and fully accepted by the market that traditional TV can meet most of the customer demand by PVR. On the other hand, internet infrastructure is well established that smooth video and audio stream can be ensured. From 2012 to 2016, both types of TV find their growth points. Traditional TV will provide innovation services, for example, media mix with mobile and customized programs. Internet TV will set up special channels, which are totally different from traditional broadcast channels, but mainly focusing on customers’ interest. The business model of online subscription will be popular, and internet TV will find its market in certain countries and get their revenue from customers and advertisement.

Traditional TV part, user expectation

TV industry faces the same war that bookstores encountered in the late 90s with Amazon.com. Traditional bookstore companies such as Barnes & Noble developed their own online retail presence to compete, and continue to draw plenty of people in their real stores. In terms of aspect of user’s expectation, traditional forms of TV programming will find a peaceful co-existence with internet TV including streaming or downloaded media.

Appointment viewing Customers still have favorites - and sit down to watch them at appointed times. Basically, people still like to have things scheduled for them - certain programs are on at certain times. We can say those channels that don’t have some on-demand features will have a hard time. But we cannot deny that most viewers know what program they are going to watch and tend to follow it when they turn on the TV.

Random selection Customers pay subscription fee to see their favorite channels. This kind of situation is similar with very famous Apple’s music player device, iPod shuffle. “What will it play next? Can it read your mind? Can it read your moods? Load it up. Put it on. See where it takes you.” It’s another way of thinking: Random and unpredictable means more fun you get. In other words, it’s quite possible that sports fans may watch any sports program on ESPN channels without knowing what’s on exactly. In this way, we can see traditional TV networks still have advantages of program production if they adapt the subscription business model.

Interactive way Lots of customers cannot have internet, they still rely on cable, satellite or TV waves to get in touch with the world. Even though more and more rich interactive advanced technology of internet (Web 2.0 RIA) is highly expected by the earlier adaptors, most consumers around the world don’t have that much choices. They still like plain TV. However, new interactive technology via traditional way glows rapidly. Thus, lots of chance still remains there for broadcast or cable networks.