Scenario 3: "9/12"
Scenario 3: 9/12
In late 2006, there is a terrorist attack on the US. A powerful computer virus is launched in the financial sector and all transactions halt and information is lost. Backs up files stored in remote locations are destroyed. Billions of dollars vanish off of balance sheets. The panic in the US spread around the world within minutes. All economies are in instant turmoil. A global recession hits. The virus has spread through all computers using Microsoft Windows and quickly spread across the US and in some parts around the world. Internet users are requested to stop using the internet for some time to stop the spread. The US is able to contain the virus but the impact of the attack is immeasurable. Consumers and businesses alike become fearful of using the internet.
The US government creates an official department under the DHS called the Division of Cyber Security (DCS). They immediately create policies that require all commercial businesses to only use closed source software that has been “officially” screened and “DCS-approved.” The DCS regulations also only allows transactions between computers that have the DCS-approved software installed. Consumers who want to conduct transactions online with commercial businesses must download a free version of the DCS-approved software before proceeding. Security of the internet becomes of the utmost importance. Individuals are also warned to install DCS anti-virus software but are not legally required to do so. Hackers are hired to track down security threats.
US Government launches a global campaign on the War on Cyber-Threats. US companies overseas all install the new software and Western Europe and Asia follow the US’s lead in creating strict regulations. The EU takes the opportunity to demand that the internet control be handed over to the UN instead of the US.
The financial sector rebuilds and slowly begins to recover from the disaster but the DCS software requirement takes a toll on businesses and the US economy. Consumers without DCS-approved software are unable to conduct any kind of transactions online. A small group of backlashers try to revolt and create their own network of websites created through open source software. Proprietary software companies have had to raise prices because they must go through extensive testing and get licenses through the DCS in order to sell their software. Businesses struggle because complying with new regulations is expensive and software prices have shot through the roof. Although regular consumers can still buy non-DCS licensed software, the market is slow because consumers are fearful of the consequences. Consumers stop using their credit cards to purchase online and companies that rely only on the internet for transactions go bankrupt.
On the other hand, the software services industry booms because companies need professional assistance in order to ensure that they are complying with DCS’s regulations. A market opens for DCS regulation professionals. All software developers focus on security as the driving force of operations. Closed source and high security software dominates. Single-device software developers that had previously enjoyed prosperity have had to slow down and redevelop higher security software. Security software developers innovate rapidly and the market for high-security software grows.
Microsoft develops a new operating system but consumers are skeptical and fearful. Microsoft loses significant market share and opens opportunities for smaller operating software companies to enter the market. This drives innovation but the high regulation counters the drive.
Eventually (years later) the world slowly recovers from the recession. Advancements in technology spur innovation and open source slowly emerges again. With rapid advancements in technology, self-generating software takes the lead and innovations in powerful anti-virus software ease security worries.