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<td align="left" valign="top">[[Image:drivingforces.jpg]]</td>
<td align="right" valign="top">The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br>
The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help.</td></table>
 
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<td align="left" valign="top">[[Image:drivingforces.jpg]]</td>
<td valign="top" width="31%">'''[[Scenario Resource Pages]]'''<font size="-2">  Links, articles and other resources on scenarios. Some of those resource pages are specifically to scenario processes, others are broader and contain links to other foresight processes.<br>
<td align="right" valign="top">A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone.  
<p>[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br>
<font size="-2"> ''Example links:''<br>
<font size="-2"> '''Scenario planning'''[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/  Page] by Martin Börjesson, about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br>
<font size="-2"> '''Plausible Futures'''[http://www.plausiblefutures.com  Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. </font></td>
<td valign="top" width="33%">'''[[Scenario Processes]]''' <font size="-2">Links to sites with scenario processes. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br>
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br>
<font size="-2"> ''Example links''<br>
<font size="-2"> '''The National Intelligence Council'''is a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president. [http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html This page] contains some long term global  trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.<br>
<font size="-2"> '''Shell scenario page'''  On [http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html this site] you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones. <br>
</font></td>
<td valign="top" width="31%">'''[[Sources of Change]]''' <font size="-2">Processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br>
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]</p>
<font size="-2"> ''Examples links:''<br>
</td>
<font size="-2"> '''The Great Climate Flip-flop'''<br>  [http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm Cover article] from the Atlantic Monthly by [http://williamcalvin.com/index.html William H. Calvin]. An article on sudden climate change. <br>
<font size="-2"> '''Oil Depletion Analysis Centre'''  The [http://www.odac-info.org ODAC] is an independent, educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. On the site you will find articles, assessments, news and links on the topic.
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<td valign="top">'''[[Political Driving Forces]]'''
<td valign="top" width="31%">'''[[Fields of Interest]]''' <font size="-2">Many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br>
<font size="-2">Driving forces you will find here include:<br>
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]</font></td>
<font size="-2"> ''Example links:''<br>
<td valign="top">'''[[Economic Driving Forces]]'''
<font size="-2"> '''International Institute for Strategic Studies'''[http://www.iiss.org/showpage.php?pageID=6 IISS] is an independent organisation for conflict studies. It's aim is to provide policy makers with 'the best possible objective information on the course and consequences of conflict having an important military dimension'.<br>
<font size="-2">Includes the following driving forces:<br>
<font size="-2"> '''Information on Cold Fusion'''  - the big wild card.  [http://blake.montclair.edu/~kowalskil/cf/19loncha.html Site] treating it as a serious scientific subject. Site and articles by Ludwik Kowalski from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Montclair State University.
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], [[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]], [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]] and [[Alternative energy sources]]</font>
</font></td>
<td valign="top" width="33%">'''[[Statistical Data]]''' <font size="-2">Statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development.<br>


</td>
<font size="-2"> ''Example links:''<br>
<td valign="top">'''[[Societal Driving Forces]]'''
<font size="-2"> '''WTO Trade Statistics''' Up-to-date [http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm#database trade statistics] by the World Trade Organisation. Statistics on World trade as well as statistics per country. Current as well as past statistics.<br>
<font size="-2">Driving forces in this section include:<br>
<font size="-2"> '''European IT statistics''' [http://www.eto.org.uk/eustats/index.htm Statistics] relating to information technology in the European Union and other selected countries. Site by European Telework Online (ETO).
[[Aging population]], [[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]], [[Community Feeling]], [[Digital Literacy]], [[Future Value of an MBA]], [[Increasing Mobility]], [[My job is not the only thing in my life ANYMORE!!!!]] and [[Violence in computer games]]</font></td>
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<td valign="top" width="31%">'''[[Futurism]]''' <font size="-2">Sites from and about futurists and their activities.  ''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]''
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<td valign="top">'''[[Technological Driving Forces]]'''
<font size="-2"> ''Example links:''<br>
<font size="-2">Technical driving forces include:<br>
<font size="-2"> '''Association of Professional Futurists''' [http://www.profuturists.com/ Page] of a community of professional futurists.<br>
[[Artificial Neural Networks]], [[Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop]], [[Gaming Industry]],[[Mobility]], [[Nanotechnology]], [[Peer-to-Peer Technology]], [[The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates]], [[The war on Spy- and Ad ware]] and [[Voice-recognition system]]</font></td>
<font size="-2"> '''World Future Society''' The [http://www.wfs.org WFS] is an open society for people interested in the future, in social as well as technological areas. Site with forecasts, recommendations, and alternative scenarios.
<td valign="top">'''[[Environmental Driving Forces]]'''
</font></td>
<font size="-2">Including driving forces like: <br>
[[Greenhouse gases emissions trading]], [[Global Dimming]], [[Acid Rain]], [[E-paper solution instead of the paper work]] and [[The change of children playing sports to children playing videogames]]</font>
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Latest revision as of 12:03, 6 July 2005

Drivingforces.jpg The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well.

The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.

You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click here for help.
Scenario Resource Pages Links, articles and other resources on scenarios. Some of those resource pages are specifically to scenario processes, others are broader and contain links to other foresight processes.

Example links:
Scenario planningPage by Martin Börjesson, about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.

Plausible FuturesPage with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's.
Scenario Processes Links to sites with scenario processes. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.

Example links
The National Intelligence Councilis a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president. This page contains some long term global trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.
Shell scenario page On this site you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones.

Sources of Change Processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.

Examples links:
The Great Climate Flip-flop
Cover article from the Atlantic Monthly by William H. Calvin. An article on sudden climate change.
Oil Depletion Analysis Centre The ODAC is an independent, educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. On the site you will find articles, assessments, news and links on the topic.

Fields of Interest Many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.

Example links:
International Institute for Strategic StudiesIISS is an independent organisation for conflict studies. It's aim is to provide policy makers with 'the best possible objective information on the course and consequences of conflict having an important military dimension'.
Information on Cold Fusion - the big wild card. Site treating it as a serious scientific subject. Site and articles by Ludwik Kowalski from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Montclair State University.

Statistical Data Statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development.

Example links:
WTO Trade Statistics Up-to-date trade statistics by the World Trade Organisation. Statistics on World trade as well as statistics per country. Current as well as past statistics.
European IT statistics Statistics relating to information technology in the European Union and other selected countries. Site by European Telework Online (ETO).

Futurism Sites from and about futurists and their activities. What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning

Example links:
Association of Professional Futurists Page of a community of professional futurists.
World Future Society The WFS is an open society for people interested in the future, in social as well as technological areas. Site with forecasts, recommendations, and alternative scenarios.